FOR RELEASE: January 5, 2006
Contact: | Rose Marie Goupil |
ISM, Media Relations | |
Tempe, Arizona | |
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015 | |
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws |
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of December 2005.
(Tempe, Arizona) — Business activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased in December 2005, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Ralph G. Kauffman, Ph.D., C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee and coordinator of the Supply Chain Management Program, University of Houston-Downtown. "Non-manufacturing business activity increased for the 33rd consecutive month in December," Kauffman said. He added, "Business Activity and New Orders increased at faster rates in December than in November. Employment increased at a slightly faster rate while Order Backlogs increased at the same rate as in November. Eleven of 17 non-manufacturing industry sectors report increased activity in December compared to 12 that reported increased activity in November. Supporting the increases in both the Business Activity and New Orders indexes, members' comments in December are generally positive concerning current business conditions. Concern about the relatively high level of energy prices has lessened somewhat, although the effects of high energy prices are still being felt through price increases and surcharges for other products. While the Prices Index continues to decline this month, it is still in a historically high range for the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey. The overall indication in December is continued economic growth in the non-manufacturing sector with a cautiously optimistic outlook as we enter 2006."
The 11 industries reporting growth in December — listed in order — are: Entertainment; Business Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Banking; Insurance; Communication; Utilities; Public Administration; Health Services; Other Services*; and Transportation. The three industries reporting activity the same as last month are: Mining; Wholesale Trade; and Legal Services. The three industries reporting decreased activity from November to December are: Agriculture; Real Estate; and Construction.
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* DECEMBER 2005 |
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
Index |
Series Index Dec. |
Series Index Nov. |
Percent Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend** (Months) |
Series Index Dec. |
Series Index Nov. |
Percent Point Change |
Business Activity/Production | 59.8 | 58.5 | +1.3 | Increasing | Faster | 33 | 57.0 | 60.6 | -3.6 |
New Orders | 61.9 | 59.5 | +2.4 | Increasing | Faster | 33 | 55.5 | 59.8 | -4.3 |
Employment | 57.1 | 57.0 | +0.1 | Increasing | Faster | 27 | 52.7 | 56.6 | -3.9 |
Supplier Deliveries | 56.5 | 60.5 | -4.0 | Slowing | Slower | 52 | 53.5 | 58.3 | -4.8 |
Inventories | 56.0 | 54.0 | +2.0 | Increasing | Faster | 2 | 47.2 | 49.3 | -2.1 |
Prices | 69.5 | 74.2 | -4.7 | Increasing | Slower | 31 | 63.0 | 74.0 | -11.0 |
Backlog of Orders | 54.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | Increasing | At same rate | 11 | 49.5 | 53.0 | -3.5 |
New Export Orders | 61.5 | 57.0 | +4.5 | Increasing | Faster | 6 | 54.3 | 59.2 | -4.9 |
Imports | 56.5 | 56.5 | 0.0 | Increasing | At same rate | 32 | 52.8 | 54.1 | -1.3 |
Inventory Sentiment | 59.0 | 60.0 | -1.0 | "Too High" | Lesser | 103 | N/A | N/A | |
Customers' Inventories | N/A | N/A | 48.0 | 43.5 | +4.5 |
* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted except for Backlog of Orders, Prices and Customers' Inventories.
** Number of months moving in current direction
Airfares (9); Aluminum; Asphalt/Asphalt Products (2); Beef/Beef Tenderloin (2); Chemicals/Chemical Reagents (3); Concrete; Construction Materials; Construction Services; Copper (28); Copper Products (various) (2); Corn; Corrugated (2); #1 Diesel Fuel (10); #2 Diesel Fuel* (12); Electricity; Freight Charges/Shipping Costs (6); Fuel* (25); Fuel-Related Surcharges (6); Gasoline* (25); #2 Heating Oil (4); Hotel Rates/Costs (13); Natural Gas (7); Paper/Paper Products (23); Plastics/Plastic Products (6); Plastic Bags; Poly Bags; Printing/Printed Materials; PVC (4); Sheetrock (Drywall, Gypsum Board) (2); Soybean Meal; Steel; Strapping; Telecom Products/Services (2); and Tomatoes.
Cheese; #2 Diesel Fuel; Fuel* (2); Gasoline* (3); Lumber — Pine, and Treated (2); and Unleaded Gasoline (3).
Airline Tickets; Castings; Cement/Cement Products; Construction Labor (2); Copper/Copper Wire; Gasoline; Gypsum Products/Wallboard; Insulation; Reagents; Steel; Stretch Film; and Tomatoes.
*Reported as both up and down in price.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in December moved up to 59.8 percent from November's 58.5 percent, indicating a faster rate of growth of activity in December. This month, 11 sectors report increased business activity, three are reporting decreased activity, and three indicate unchanged activity compared to November.
The industries reporting the highest rates of growth of business activity in December are: Entertainment; Business Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Banking; and Insurance. The industries reporting contraction of business activity in December are: Agriculture; Real Estate; and Construction.
Business Activity |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 31 | 52 | 17 | 59.8 |
November 2005 | 31 | 56 | 13 | 58.5 |
October 2005 | 31 | 54 | 15 | 60.0 |
September 2005 | 27 | 54 | 19 | 53.3 |
THE LAST 12 MONTHS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Month | Business Activity Index |
Month | Business Activity Index |
|
Dec '05 | 59.8 | June '05 | 62.2 | |
Nov '05 | 58.5 | May '05 | 58.5 | |
Oct '05 | 60.0 | Apr '05 | 61.7 | |
Sep '05 | 53.3 | Mar '05 | 63.1 | |
Aug '05 | 65.0 | Feb '05 | 59.8 | |
July '05 | 60.5 | Jan '05 | 59.2 | |
Average for 12 months 60.1 High 65.0 Low 53.3 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index increased to 61.9 percent in December from 59.5 percent in November. This indicates continued expansion of new orders at a faster rate of growth than in November. Comments from members include: "Higher patient demand"; "Increased sales, proposal and prospect activity"; "Orders for the coming year are very strong. The first half of the year is traditionally the strongest in our annual cycle. This is coupled with increased market share as a result of successful marketing and sales"; and "Business is increasing due to time of year."
Industries reporting the highest rates of growth of new orders in December are: Entertainment; Retail Trade; Communication; Business Services; and Insurance. The one industry reporting contraction of new orders in December is Agriculture.
New Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 32 | 55 | 13 | 61.9 |
November 2005 | 31 | 57 | 12 | 59.5 |
October 2005 | 27 | 58 | 15 | 58.2 |
September 2005 | 26 | 59 | 15 | 56.6 |
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a slightly faster rate in December compared to November. This was the 27th consecutive monthly increase in non-manufacturing employment. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for December is 57.1 percent, a rise of 0.1 percentage point from November's 57 percent. Eleven industries are reporting increased employment, three report decreases, and three indicate employment is unchanged from November. Comments from respondents include: "We are hiring to meet increased production requirements"; "Filling new positions"; "Expansion needs require additional staff"; and "Adding staff for capital projects."
The industries reporting the highest rates of growth in employment in December are: Mining; Utilities; Insurance; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Health Services. Industries reporting a reduction in employment in December are: Legal Services; Construction; and Agriculture.
Employment |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 21 | 70 | 9 | 57.1 |
November 2005 | 21 | 72 | 7 | 57.0 |
October 2005 | 16 | 72 | 12 | 52.9 |
September 2005 | 20 | 68 | 12 | 54.9 |
The delivery performance of suppliers to non-manufacturing organizations was slower for the 52nd consecutive month in December. The index registered 56.5 percent, 4 percentage points lower than in November and indicating that deliveries are slowing at a slower rate than in November. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries. Comments from purchasing and supply executives concerning supplier deliveries in December include: "Slow rail delivery"; "Increased backlog in fabricator facilities"; "Allocation availability"; "Labor supply very tight"; and "Holdings and depleted inventories."
The industries reporting the highest rates of slowing in supplier deliveries in December are: Mining; Utilities; Agriculture; Construction; and Wholesale Trade. The one industry reporting faster supplier deliveries in December is Finance & Banking.
Supplier Deliveries |
% Slower |
% Same |
% Faster |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 16 | 81 | 3 | 56.5 |
November 2005 | 22 | 77 | 1 | 60.5 |
October 2005 | 21 | 75 | 4 | 58.5 |
September 2005 | 17 | 78 | 5 | 56.0 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 56 percent in December, indicating an increase in inventories compared to November. This is the second consecutive month of reported increases in non-manufacturing inventories. Of the total respondents in December, 31 percent indicate they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from members include: "Elevated to meet holiday peak demand"; "Trying to maintain higher inventories to meet company needs"; and "Still replenishing supplies used for hurricanes Katrina and Rita."
The industries reporting the highest rates of increase in inventories in December are: Utilities; Transportation; Communication; Wholesale Trade; and Retail Trade. The industries reporting inventory decreases in December are: Agriculture; Finance & Banking; Construction; and Other Services*.
Inventories |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 28 | 56 | 16 | 56.0 |
November 2005 | 24 | 60 | 16 | 54.0 |
October 2005 | 26 | 48 | 26 | 50.0 |
September 2005 | 22 | 56 | 22 | 50.0 |
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in December for the 31st consecutive month, but at a slower rate of increase than in November. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for December is 69.5 percent, 4.7 percentage points below the 74.2 percent reported for November. In December, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices declined from 44 percent to 33 percent, the proportion indicating no change rose from 48 percent to 60 percent, and the number of respondents noting lower prices decreased from 8 percent to 7 percent.
The industries reporting the highest rates of increase in prices paid in December are: Entertainment; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture; Retail Trade; and Utilities. Industries reporting price decreases in December are: Real Estate and Communication.
Prices |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 33 | 60 | 7 | 69.5 |
November 2005 | 44 | 48 | 8 | 74.2 |
October 2005 | 54 | 41 | 5 | 78.0 |
September 2005 | 58 | 40 | 2 | 81.4 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index registered 54 percent in December, the same as in November, indicating order backlogs are increasing at the same rate in both months. December's report of increasing order backlogs marks 31 out of the last 32 months that an increase has been reported in order backlogs. Of the total respondents in December, 45 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Purchasing and supply executives' comments on backlogs of orders include: "Manufacturers reduced backlogs"; "Shortage of chemicals for reagent manufacturing"; and "New contracts extend backlog."
The industries reporting the highest rates of increase in order backlogs in December are: Construction; Business Services; Insurance; Finance & Banking; and Other Services*. Industries reporting decreases in backlog of orders in December are: Agriculture; Communication; and Wholesale Trade.
Backlog of Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 21 | 66 | 13 | 54.0 |
November 2005 | 22 | 64 | 14 | 54.0 |
October 2005 | 23 | 64 | 13 | 55.0 |
September 2005 | 19 | 66 | 15 | 52.0 |
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel increased for the sixth consecutive month in December. The December index marks 28 out of the past 29 months that the index has exhibited growth. The New Export Orders Index for December is 61.5 percent, compared to November's 57 percent. Of the total respondents in December, 78 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the United States.
The industries reporting the highest rates of increase in new export orders in December are: Utilities; Finance & Banking; Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Retail Trade. Industries reporting decreases in new export orders in December are: Communication and Other Services*.
New Export Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 34 | 55 | 11 | 61.5 |
November 2005 | 23 | 68 | 9 | 57.0 |
October 2005 | 23 | 63 | 14 | 54.5 |
September 2005 | 27 | 56 | 17 | 55.0 |
In December, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Imports Index registered 56.5 percent, the same as in November, indicating that use of imports increased at the same rate in both months. December's index marks the 32nd consecutive month of import growth. In December, 67 percent of respondents reported that they do not use or do not track the use of imported materials.
The industries reporting an increase in the use of imports in December are: Finance & Banking; Transportation; Utilities; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade. Industries reporting decreases in the use of imports in December are: Public Administration and Business Services.
Imports |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 21 | 71 | 8 | 56.5 |
November 2005 | 22 | 69 | 9 | 56.5 |
October 2005 | 19 | 69 | 12 | 53.5 |
September 2005 | 24 | 69 | 7 | 58.5 |
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in December registered 59 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the 60 percent reported in November. This indicates that non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives feel a lesser degree of discomfort with current levels of inventory in December than they did during November. In December, 27 percent of respondents felt their inventories were too high, 9 percent indicated their inventories were too low, and 64 percent said that their inventories were about right.
The industries reporting the highest rates of feeling that their inventories are too high in December are: Communication; Agriculture; Wholesale Trade; Transportation; and Other Services*. The one industry reporting that its inventories are too low in December is Utilities.
Inventory Sentiment |
%Too High |
%About Right |
%Too Low |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
December 2005 | 27 | 64 | 9 | 59.0 |
November 2005 | 26 | 68 | 6 | 60.0 |
October 2005 | 22 | 66 | 12 | 55.0 |
September 2005 | 33 | 62 | 5 | 64.0 |
*Other Services include:
Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places; Personal Services; Automotive Repair, Services, and Parking; Miscellaneous Repair Services; Educational Services; Social Services; Museums, Art Galleries, and Botanical and Zoological Gardens; Membership Organizations; Engineering, Accounting, Research, Management and Related Services; and Miscellaneous Services.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision making.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries representing nine divisions from the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories. Membership of the Business Survey Committee is diversified by SIC category and is based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP).
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower and faster for Supplier Deliveries). Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.
A weighted composite index similar to the PMI that is so popular in the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is not available. Several years of data will need to be developed before that type of non-manufacturing indicator can be developed. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the largest supply management research and education organization in the United States. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education.
The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the third business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).
The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the January 2006 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on February 3, 2006.