Strategic Supply Management

Forecasting Applications for Supply Management

1. Quotations



2. Introduction
   1. Why We Need to Forecast
   2. Value to Organizations
   3. It's Not Magic!


3. History
   1. National Indicators
   2. Personal Consumption


4. The Cycles of Business
   1. Business Cycles Defined
   2. How Cycles Impact the Economy
   3. Expansion, Contraction, Recession…
   4. How to Capitalize on the Cycles


5. Index of Leading Indicators
   1. Types of Indicators
   2. Graphic Profile


6. Incident of Coincident Economic Indicators
   1. Types of Indicators
   2. Graphic Profile


7. Index of Lagging Economic Indicators
   1. Types of Indicators
   2. Graphic Profile


8. Tangible and Intangible Benefits of Forecasting
   1. Causal and Benefit — Tangible
   2. Causal and Benefit — Intangible
   3. Categories and Types of Forecasting Models


9. Developing a Forecasting Process
   1. Process Mapping the Tasks


10. Factors Influencing Change
    1. Trends
    2. Turning Points
    3. Cycles
    4. Seasonal
    5. Calendar
    6. Irregular
    7. Graphic Applications of the Changes


11. Group Example — Acme Brake and Rotor
    1. Group Exercise


12. Group Example — Priscilla Office Supply
    1. Group Exercise


13. Major Time Series Models
    1. Naïve Forecast (NF1)
    2. Group Exercise
    3. Naïve Forecast (NF2)
    4. Group Exercise
    5. Comparison of NF1 and NF2
    6. Graphic Profile


14. Moving Average Models
    1. Simple Moving Average Model
    2. Compound Moving Average Model
    3. Complex Moving Average
    4. Comparison and Contracts


15. Weighted Moving Average
    1. Application of Technique
    2. Group Exercise


16. Exponential Smoothing
    1. Correlation of Time Series and Smoothing
    2. Group Exercise


17. What Does All This Mean For Supply Management?
    1. Opportunities to Capitalize on the Data
    2. Benefits to the Seller and the Buyer
    3. Quantifying the Benefits
    4. Stop Correcting the Symptoms-Address the Problems!


18. Selling the Concepts of Accurate Forecasts
    1. To Senior Management
    2. To Your Suppliers


19. Putting Your Case Together