FOR RELEASE: December 5, 2006
Contact: | Rose Marie Goupil |
ISM, Media Relations | |
Tempe, Arizona | |
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015 | |
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws |
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2006.
(Tempe, Arizona) Business activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a faster rate in November 2006, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. "Non-manufacturing business activity increased for the 44th consecutive month in November," Nieves said. He added, "Business Activity increased at a faster rate in November than in October. New Orders, Employment, Backlog of Orders and Imports also increased at a faster rate. The Prices Index increased 3.7 percentage points this month to 55.6 percent. Eleven of 18 non-manufacturing industries reported increased activity in November. Members' comments in November are mostly positive concerning current business conditions. The overall indication in November is continued economic growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster pace than in October."
The eleven industries reporting growth in November listed in order are: Wholesale Trade; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services*; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting activity the same as last month are: Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance. The four industries reporting decreased activity from October to November are: Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; and Public Administration.
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* NOVEMBER 2006 |
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
Index | Series Index Nov |
Series Index Oct |
Percent Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend** (Months) |
Series Index Nov |
Series Index Oct |
Percent Point Change |
Business Activity/Production | 58.9 | 57.1 | +1.8 | Increasing | Faster | 44 | 48.5 | 51.9 | -3.4 |
New Orders | 57.1 | 56.5 | +0.6 | Increasing | Faster | 44 | 48.7 | 52.1 | -3.4 |
Employment | 51.6 | 51.0 | +0.6 | Increasing | Faster | 28 | 49.2 | 50.8 | -1.6 |
Supplier Deliveries | 50.0 | 54.5 | -4.5 | Unchanged | From Growing | 1 | 52.8 | 50.2 | +2.6 |
Inventories | 51.5 | 53.0 | -1.5 | Increasing | Slower | 13 | 49.7 | 49.4 | +0.3 |
Prices | 55.6 | 51.9 | +3.7 | Increasing | Faster | 56 | 53.5 | 47.0 | +6.5 |
Backlog of Orders | 54.5 | 51.5 | +3.0 | Growing | Faster | 3 | 46.5 | 44.5 | +2.0 |
New Export Orders | 58.5 | 63.5 | -5.0 | Increasing | Slower | 17 | 56.9 | 57.8 | -0.9 |
Imports | 59.5 | 57.5 | +2.0 | Increasing | Faster | 10 | 56.5 | 57.0 | -0.5 |
Inventory Sentiment | 57.0 | 64.5 | -7.5 | "Too High" | Slower | 114 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Customers' Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | 50.5 | 52.0 | -1.5 |
* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted except for Backlog of Orders, Prices, Imports and Customers' Inventories.
** Number of months moving in current direction
Airfare; Cleaning Supplies; Construction (2); Corn (2); Electricity; Fuel* (2); Gasoline*; Hotel Costs (6); Lumber Pine, Plywood and Treated*; Office Products & Supplies* (3); Paper (34); Paper Products (10); Soy Oil (2); Soybean Meal (2); Stainless Steel (3); Steel*; and Steel Products* (2).
Chicken; Copy Paper; Diesel Fuel (3); # 2 Diesel Fuel (3); Fuel* (3); Gasoline* (3); Lumber Spruce* (6); Office Products & Supplies*; Overnight Shipping; Poly Bags; Polypropylene; Pork; PVC; Steel*; and Steel Products*.
Labor; Polypropylene; and Vaccines (3).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
* Reported as both up and down in price.
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in November registered 58.9 percent compared to the 57.1 percent registered in October, indicating a faster rate of growth in business activity in November. The implication is that non-manufacturing business activity is continuing to increase for the 44th consecutive month and at a faster rate. This month, 11 industries reported increased business activity, four reported decreased activity, and three indicated unchanged activity compared to October.
The industries reporting growth of business activity in November are: Wholesale Trade; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services*; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries reporting contraction of business activity in November are: Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; and Public Administration.
Business Activity |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 32 | 53 | 15 | 58.9 |
October 2006 | 31 | 50 | 19 | 57.1 |
September 2006 | 25 | 56 | 19 | 52.9 |
August 2006 | 27 | 56 | 17 | 57.0 |
THE LAST 12 MONTHS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Month | Business Activity Index |
Month | Business Activity Index |
|
Nov 2006 | 58.9 | May 2006 | 60.1 | |
Oct 2006 | 57.1 | Apr 2006 | 63.0 | |
Sep 2006 | 52.9 | Mar 2006 | 60.5 | |
Aug 2006 | 57.0 | Feb 2006 | 60.1 | |
Jul 2006 | 54.8 | Jan 2006 | 56.8 | |
Jun 2006 | 57.0 | Dec 2005 | 61.0 | |
Average for 12 months 58.3 High 63.0 Low 52.9 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index increased to 57.1 percent in November from the 56.5 percent registered in October. This indicates continued expansion of new orders at a faster rate than in October. Comments from members include: "Typically busy time of year" and "Low unemployment rate and higher demand for supply chain and contract administrators."
Industries reporting growth of new orders in November are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Other Services*; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Accommodation & Food Services. The industries reporting contraction of new orders in November are: Educational Services; Construction; Public Administration; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.
New Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 29 | 55 | 16 | 57.1 |
October 2006 | 26 | 56 | 18 | 56.5 |
September 2006 | 27 | 57 | 16 | 57.2 |
August 2006 | 22 | 60 | 18 | 52.1 |
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a slightly faster rate in November compared to October. This was the 28th consecutive monthly increase in non-manufacturing employment. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for November is 51.6 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the 51 percent reported in October. Seven industries reported increased employment, six reported a decrease, and five indicated employment is unchanged from October. Comments from respondents include: "Increasing skilled employees for anticipated business increase in 2007" and "More labor needed for capital projects."
The industries reporting growth in employment in November are: Retail Trade; Other Services*; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The six industries reporting a reduction in employment in November are: Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Construction; Public Administration; and Accommodation & Food Services.
Employment |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 18 | 68 | 14 | 51.6 |
October 2006 | 14 | 72 | 14 | 51.0 |
September 2006 | 17 | 69 | 14 | 53.6 |
August 2006 | 15 | 72 | 13 | 51.4 |
In November, the delivery performance of suppliers to non-manufacturing organizations remained the same as in October. The index registered 50 percent, 4.5 percentage points lower than in October. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries. Comments from purchasing and supply executives concerning supplier deliveries in November include: "Slow rail delivery" and "OEM shortages."
The industries reporting slowing in supplier deliveries in November are: Utilities; Educational Services; Other Services*; Information; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The three industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in November are: Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade.
Supplier Deliveries |
% Slower |
% Same |
% Faster |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 6 | 88 | 6 | 50.0 |
October 2006 | 13 | 83 | 4 | 54.5 |
September 2006 | 12 | 84 | 4 | 54.0 |
August 2006 | 13 | 81 | 6 | 53.5 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 51.5 percent in November, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to October. This is the 13th consecutive month of reported increases in non-manufacturing inventories. Of the total respondents in November, 34 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from members include: "Reducing inventory to free up capital" and "Program implemented to increase cycle times."
The industries reporting increases in inventories in November are: Information; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; and Public Administration. The industries reporting decreases in inventories in November are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.
Inventories |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 25 | 53 | 22 | 51.5 |
October 2006 | 24 | 58 | 18 | 53.0 |
September 2006 | 22 | 57 | 21 | 50.5 |
August 2006 | 20 | 63 | 17 | 51.5 |
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in November for the 56th consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for November is 55.6 percent, 3.7 percentage points higher than October's index of 51.9 percent. In November, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices remained the same as in October at 21 percent. The percentage indicating no change increased from 63 percent in October to 65 percent in November. The percentage of respondents noting lower prices decreased from 16 percent in October to 14 percent in November.
The industries reporting an increase in prices paid in November are: Mining; Utilities; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The seven industries reporting a decrease in prices in November are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Finance & Insurance.
Prices |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 21 | 65 | 14 | 55.6 |
October 2006 | 21 | 63 | 16 | 51.9 |
September 2006 | 26 | 61 | 13 | 56.7 |
August 2006 | 43 | 54 | 3 | 72.4 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index registered 54.5 percent in November, 3 percentage points higher than the 51.5 percent reported in October. This indicates that order backlogs are once again increasing for the third consecutive month after contracting in August. Of the total respondents in November, 42 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Purchasing and supply executives' comments on backlogs of orders include: "Budget constraints increasing", "Material delivery slowdown" and "Christmas demand is backing up some deliveries."
The industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in November are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services*; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; and Construction. The six industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in November are: Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Educational Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Finance & Insurance.
Backlog of Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 25 | 59 | 16 | 54.5 |
October 2006 | 22 | 59 | 19 | 51.5 |
September 2006 | 22 | 62 | 16 | 53.0 |
August 2006 | 17 | 65 | 18 | 49.5 |
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel increased for the 17th consecutive month in November. The November index marks 39 of the past 40 months that the index has exhibited growth. The New Export Orders Index for November is 58.5 percent, compared to October's index of 63.5 percent. Of the total respondents in November, 69 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the United States.
The industries reporting an increase in new export orders in November are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in November are: Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Accommodation & Food Services.
New Export Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 30 | 57 | 13 | 58.5 |
October 2006 | 35 | 57 | 8 | 63.5 |
September 2006 | 26 | 66 | 8 | 59.0 |
August 2006 | 20 | 66 | 14 | 53.0 |
In November, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Imports Index registered 59.5 percent, 2 percentage points higher than October's index of 57.5 percent, indicating that use of imports increased in November for the 10th consecutive month, and at a faster rate than in October. In November, 61 percent of respondents reported that they do not use or do not track the use of imported materials.
The industries reporting an increase in the use of imports in November are: Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Information; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports for the month of November are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Finance & Insurance.
Imports |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 28 | 63 | 9 | 59.5 |
October 2006 | 25 | 65 | 10 | 57.5 |
September 2006 | 21 | 68 | 11 | 55.0 |
August 2006 | 22 | 76 | 2 | 60.0 |
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in November registered 57 percent, 7.5 percentage points lower than the 64.5 percent reported in October. This indicates that non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives feel a lesser degree of discomfort with current levels of inventory in November than they did during October. In November, 24 percent of respondents felt their inventories were too high, 10 percent indicated their inventories were too low, and 66 percent said that their inventories were about right.
The industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in November are: Other Services*; Wholesale Trade; Information; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Retail Trade. The three industries reporting that their inventories are too low are: Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Public Administration.
Inventory Sentiment |
%Too High |
%About Right |
%Too Low |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 2006 | 24 | 66 | 10 | 57.0 |
October 2006 | 33 | 63 | 4 | 64.5 |
September 2006 | 32 | 63 | 5 | 63.5 |
August 2006 | 28 | 62 | 10 | 59.0 |
*Other Services include:
Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision making.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services*; and Public Administration.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower and faster for Supplier Deliveries). Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, the largest supply management research and education organization in the United States. The Institute for Supply Management, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education.
The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the third business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).
The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the December 2006 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Thursday, January 4, 2007.