ISM - Media Release: 2004 U.S. Department Of Commerce Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors

2004 U.S. Department Of Commerce Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors

FOR RELEASE: January 26, 2004

CONTACT:	Kristen Kioa
	ISM, Media Relations
	Tempe, Arizona
	(800) 888-6276, ext. 3015

U.S. Department Of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Indexes

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2004 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 2, 2004, and the January 2004 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 4, 2004.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2004).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the indexes for 2000 through 2003 as well as the 2004 projected seasonal factors for Manufacturing. Due to the shorter history for the Non-Manufacturing Report, these indexes have been revised from 1997 through 2003. The 2004 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2005. Projected seasonal factors for 2004 are listed on the next page. Revised indexes for all other indicators are shown on pages 3 through 6, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI and Business Activity Index for Non-Manufacturing on page 7.

2004 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

	New Orders	Production	Employment	Supplier Deliveries	Inventories	Export Orders	Imports
January 2004	0.957	0.949	0.993	0.993	0.992	0.991	0.974
February 2004	1.046	1.056	0.994	1.014	1.042	0.993	0.971
March 2004	1.073	1.061	1.026	0.994	1.024	1.000	1.013
April 2004	1.108	1.053	1.020	0.998	1.016	1.009	1.026
May 2004	1.067	1.042	1.042	1.002	1.004	0.998	1.003
June 2004	1.041	1.021	1.055	0.998	0.999	1.041	1.024
July 2004	0.950	0.930	1.003	1.020	0.971	1.005	0.985
August 2004	0.973	0.967	0.978	1.012	1.035	1.015	0.989
September 2004	0.998	0.999	0.964	0.999	1.009	1.014	1.057
October 2004	0.943	0.967	0.968	1.006	0.986	0.972	0.975
November 2004	0.935	0.983	0.963	0.982	0.947	0.997	0.993
December 2004	0.912	0.975	0.996	0.983	0.973	0.966	0.990

Weight	.30	.25	.20	.15	.10	(Not part of PMI)

To compute the PMI:

Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight, then add all five together.
To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2004 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes
	Business Activity	New Orders	Employment	Prices
January 2004	0.913	0.948	0.974	1.021
February 2004	1.004	1.011	0.968	1.064
March 2004	1.003	1.003	1.011	1.066
April 2004	1.009	1.013	1.028	1.093
May 2004	1.004	1.028	1.013	1.022
June 2004	1.069	1.058	1.028	0.998
July 2004	0.987	0.972	1.040	0.957
August 2004	0.980	0.990	1.000	0.971
September 2004	1.050	1.008	0.980	0.984
October 2004	0.995	0.983	0.976	0.952
November 2004	1.020	1.010	1.000	0.943
December 2004	0.967	0.979	0.983	0.932

Revised Manufacturing Seasonally-Adjusted Indexes 2000-2003
		PMI	New Orders	Production	Employment	Supplier Deliveries	Inventories	Export Orders	Imports
Jan	2000	56.7	60.4	57.8	52.8	55.0	52.8	53.4	52.9
Feb	2000	55.8	58.9	59.1	53.6	54.4	44.9	54.2	53.0
Mar	2000	54.9	56.2	59.5	51.2	54.3	47.5	54.8	53.5
Apr	2000	54.7	55.4	58.1	53.2	55.4	46.1	51.5	53.8
May	2000	53.2	51.5	56.4	53.0	55.4	46.9	56.4	54.2
Jun	2000	51.4	50.0	53.4	50.7	54.5	47.0	52.8	55.7
Jul	2000	52.5	52.0	53.7	52.5	53.9	48.5	51.7	50.8
Aug	2000	49.9	50.0	49.7	48.8	53.5	47.1	50.8	52.2
Sep	2000	49.7	48.9	51.5	50.6	49.6	45.9	50.7	48.9
Oct	2000	48.7	48.4	49.3	48.2	51.1	45.9	48.7	52.4
Nov	2000	48.5	49.1	50.1	47.1	50.2	42.8	48.6	53.2
Dec	2000	43.9	42.1	42.9	42.7	52.8	40.4	49.5	51.2

Jan	2001	41.3	38.1	39.4	42.0	49.5	41.6	46.2	49.0
Feb	2001	41.1	40.0	38.3	37.4	50.1	44.8	46.7	47.5
Mar	2001	42.8	42.0	42.5	40.0	48.1	44.0	50.7	48.8
Apr	2001	43.1	45.3	43.2	38.3	47.5	39.7	47.8	46.8
May	2001	42.0	44.8	42.9	35.5	46.0	38.4	46.0	47.3
Jun	2001	43.9	47.5	45.3	36.0	47.5	40.0	45.3	47.6
Jul	2001	44.6	49.1	47.0	37.2	47.0	36.4	48.3	47.8
Aug	2001	48.1	53.4	51.9	41.3	46.8	37.9	51.8	50.5
Sep	2001	47.4	50.8	51.8	41.5	47.3	38.6	46.6	48.7
Oct	2001	40.3	38.7	41.7	35.5	49.1	38.2	44.3	47.2
Nov	2001	45.1	49.6	47.0	36.6	48.5	38.5	49.3	49.4
Dec	2001	47.3	53.6	49.4	38.8	48.8	37.5	47.8	50.0

Jan	2002	49.1	54.7	52.1	40.7	50.8	39.5	50.2	51.3
Feb	2002	52.9	60.4	57.5	43.4	51.1	40.4	50.5	52.5
Mar	2002	55.3	64.4	58.1	46.8	52.6	41.5	51.3	53.8
Apr	2002	54.1	58.8	59.1	46.8	53.6	42.7	52.4	55.1
May	2002	55.3	61.6	58.8	48.1	53.9	44.4	53.6	54.7
Jun	2002	55.7	60.5	60.9	48.8	54.9	43.6	53.9	54.4
Jul	2002	51.4	52.6	56.8	45.1	54.8	41.6	52.2	53.9
Aug	2002	50.5	49.9	54.6	46.5	53.7	45.5	52.7	53.3
Sep	2002	51.4	52.9	53.9	45.9	56.5	43.7	52.9	53.2
Oct	2002	49.7	52.2	51.2	45.9	53.1	41.3	52.8	50.6
Nov	2002	49.6	51.1	53.0	45.0	51.8	42.7	50.0	52.1
Dec	2002	53.3	60.0	54.2	46.7	52.4	45.3	52.3	55.1

Jan	2003	53.0	58.6	55.5	46.2	52.0	44.9	54.7	58.6
Feb	2003	49.4	51.9	52.3	42.8	52.4	43.7	55.0	54.8
Mar	2003	46.6	47.1	47.0	42.4	53.4	42.5	52.4	53.1
Apr	2003	46.2	45.9	48.8	42.1	50.1	42.7	51.5	54.6
May	2003	50.0	52.6	52.7	43.6	51.4	46.4	52.1	53.1
Jun	2003	50.4	52.9	53.9	46.0	50.6	42.1	54.4	56.2
Jul	2003	52.6	57.6	55.3	46.2	51.4	45.3	54.2	55.9
Aug	2003	55.0	60.4	61.2	46.6	53.3	43.0	55.2	56.0
Sep	2003	54.7	60.9	59.3	46.5	53.1	43.2	53.1	59.2
Oct	2003	57.1	64.6	62.3	48.0	54.1	44.4	59.3	58.4
Nov	2003	61.3	71.4	65.6	50.8	56.0	49.6	57.1	61.0
Dec	2003	63.4	73.1	69.2	53.5	58.6	46.3	60.0	58.1

Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally-Adjusted Indexes 1997-2003
		Business Activity	New Orders	Employment	Prices
Jul	1997	58.9	58.5	53.8	51.0
Aug	1997	63.0	60.6	53.9	53.3
Sep	1997	58.6	59.1	53.3	52.4
Oct	1997	63.2	60.5	51.0	52.8
Nov	1997	60.4	60.3	56.5	54.6
Dec	1997	56.8	58.6	55.0	55.0

Jan	1998	61.5	57.3	54.9	52.3
Feb	1998	58.9	58.8	54.5	52.1
Mar	1998	56.7	56.3	54.4	48.5
Apr	1998	58.5	57.4	51.8	46.8
May	1998	60.8	60.0	52.9	46.9
Jun	1998	59.9	55.3	52.5	45.5
Jul	1998	59.0	58.0	51.9	47.1
Aug	1998	52.5	55.6	52.3	47.9
Sep	1998	57.2	55.9	53.7	45.6
Oct	1998	54.5	54.4	53.1	49.1
Nov	1998	53.4	53.0	52.4	47.6
Dec	1998	54.3	53.4	50.9	48.4

Jan	1999	58.4	57.5	51.3	46.8
Feb	1999	57.3	56.3	51.9	45.8
Mar	1999	59.7	59.0	51.2	49.5
Apr	1999	59.6	58.5	52.2	51.6
May	1999	57.4	56.3	53.0	52.5
Jun	1999	59.0	59.5	55.4	53.2
Jul	1999	61.2	58.1	53.4	57.8
Aug	1999	60.3	59.9	52.3	59.0
Sep	1999	59.2	60.0	51.4	63.4
Oct	1999	61.1	61.6	51.7	58.8
Nov	1999	55.4	55.6	50.5	61.3
Dec	1999	60.2	61.1	53.0	60.3

Jan	2000	57.1	60.8	52.4	61.1
Feb	2000	58.2	58.7	52.4	66.7
Mar	2000	61.5	62.3	55.1	69.6
Apr	2000	61.2	61.3	54.5	65.3
May	2000	59.4	60.5	53.6	63.4
Jun	2000	61.2	59.3	54.5	65.0
Jul	2000	57.2	60.3	50.6	62.4
Aug	2000	61.0	60.0	54.2	59.4
Sep	2000	60.0	60.3	53.4	61.5
Oct	2000	58.9	58.6	54.5	63.7
Nov	2000	57.8	56.2	54.6	61.2
Dec	2000	56.6	54.7	52.3	63.0

Jan	2001	51.9	50.8	51.8	61.4
Feb	2001	51.6	51.2	50.2	58.1
Mar	2001	51.5	52.8	49.6	56.7
Apr	2001	48.7	47.3	46.6	54.3
May	2001	47.9	49.4	46.8	57.7
Jun	2001	52.1	52.4	45.9	54.8
Jul	2001	48.9	48.4	46.6	50.2
Aug	2001	46.8	46.5	45.6	49.0
Sep	2001	49.7	50.6	46.1	49.7
Oct	2001	40.5	40.7	44.0	43.5
Nov	2001	48.0	46.0	44.5	41.4
Dec	2001	49.5	49.5	44.5	41.8

Jan	2002	49.3	48.4	44.4	48.3
Feb	2002	57.4	56.1	43.1	47.5
Mar	2002	59.4	56.5	45.8	50.0
Apr	2002	57.3	58.8	48.1	54.2
May	2002	60.7	57.4	49.4	53.9
Jun	2002	56.4	56.8	44.6	53.5
Jul	2002	53.2	52.1	46.3	61.1
Aug	2002	50.9	51.5	47.1	55.0
Sep	2002	54.3	54.2	46.5	53.1
Oct	2002	52.9	51.3	46.6	56.9
Nov	2002	55.2	55.8	46.0	57.9
Dec	2002	53.7	53.4	46.9	55.7