ISM - Media Release: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAKES ANNUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SEASONAL FACTORS FOR PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX AND DIFFUSION INDEXES

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAKES ANNUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SEASONAL FACTORS FOR PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX AND DIFFUSION INDEXES

FOR RELEASE: January 15, 2001

CONTACT:	Kristen Kioa
	NAPM Media Relations
	Tempe, AZ
	480/752-6276 ext. 3015

(Tempe, Arizona) The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as the diffusion indexes for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Prices, New Export Orders, and Imports within the monthly National Association of Purchasing Management's Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes effective with the January 2001 NAPM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be issued on February 1, 2001.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to nonmovable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2001). The U.S. Department of Commerce then takes the actual experience for that year and adjusts the factors, which also affects the indexes for the previous years: 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000.

The previous and current revisions to the indexes for 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000 are attached, as well as the 2001 projected seasonal factors. The 2001 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2002. Previously published and revised Purchasing Managers' Indexes, together with projected seasonal factors for 2001 are listed on the next page. Indexes for all other indicators both previously published and revised, are shown on pages 3 and 4.

2001 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for NAPM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

	New Orders	Production	Employment	Supplier Deliveries	Inventories	Prices	Export Orders	Imports
January 2001	0.952	0.975	0.931	0.965	0.972	0.929	0.988	0.961
February 2001	1.006	0.996	0.995	0.975	1.017	0.956	0.966	0.978
March 2001	1.063	1.063	1.016	0.983	1.017	0.982	1.007	1.018
April 2001	1.101	1.073	1.038	1.002	1.024	1.013	1.026	1.017
May 2001	1.045	1.054	1.071	1.007	0.994	1.029	1.009	1.041
June 2001	1.019	0.996	1.048	0.990	0.981	1.028	1.034	1.011
July 2001	1.025	0.949	1.009	1.013	0.993	1.021	1.006	0.993
August 2001	0.989	0.948	0.992	1.022	1.035	1.062	1.011	1.017
September 2001	1.034	1.034	0.982	1.021	1.002	1.046	1.046	1.013
October 2001	0.965	1.003	0.984	1.007	1.032	1.045	0.944	1.004
November 2001	0.942	0.976	0.994	1.015	0.963	0.964	1.004	0.974
December 2001	0.856	0.929	0.939	0.999	0.967	0.921	0.959	0.972

Weight	.30	.25	.20	.15	.10	(Not part of Purchasing Managers' index)

To compute the Purchasing Managers' Index

Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight and sum. To compute other indexes, follow #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

	1997		1998		1999		2000
	Previous	Revision	Previous	Revision	Previous	Revision	Previous	Revision
January	53.6	53.6	53.4	53.5	49.9	49.9	56.3	56.2
February	53.3	53.2	53.2	53.0	52.1	51.7	56.9	56.4
March	54.1	54.1	53.4	53.3	53.3	52.9	55.8	55.3
April	53.7	53.7	52.3	52.3	52.7	52.5	54.9	54.7
May	56.0	56.0	50.9	50.8	54.4	54.4	53.2	53.1
June	55.2	55.4	49.2	49.4	56.3	56.7	51.8	52.1
July	57.8	57.7	49.4	49.2	53.6	53.4	51.8	51.7
August	56.1	56.2	49.1	49.2	54.4	54.7	49.5	49.9
September	54.0	53.9	48.8	48.7	57.3	57.1	49.9	49.6
October	56.4	56.4	48.6	48.7	56.9	56.9	48.3	48.3
November	55.4	55.4	47.7	47.7	57.1	57.2	47.7	47.9
December	54.3	54.4	46.3	46.7	56.8	57.6	43.7	44.3

Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000

	New Orders		Production		Employment		Supplier Deliveries
	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision
January 1997	56.8	56.8	59.3	59.2	49.7	49.8	49.6	49.7
February 1997	58.0	57.8	59.2	58.9	45.8	45.9	52.1	52.2
March 1997	58.7	58.7	56.4	56.0	50.6	50.7	53.0	53.1
April 1997	56.8	56.8	56.7	56.5	51.8	51.8	53.4	53.4
May 1997	61.8	62.2	56.7	56.5	51.2	50.6	54.9	55.0
June 1997	59.7	60.0	57.0	57.3	51.7	51.8	54.7	54.8
July 1997	61.4	61.3	64.6	64.5	52.1	51.9	54.7	54.8
August 1997	60.1	60.2	61.1	61.4	51.1	51.1	55.2	55.2
September 1997	55.1	55.2	56.8	56.7	51.4	51.3	54.8	54.8
October 1997	60.8	60.8	59.1	59.4	52.8	52.8	54.9	54.8
November 1997	57.2	57.1	59.4	59.6	53.7	53.6	55.1	55.0
December 1997	57.3	57.0	56.1	56.7	51.3	52.0	54.1	53.8

January 1998	56.8	56.7	54.5	54.5	51.0	51.2	52.9	53.1
February 1998	55.2	54.7	54.9	54.4	51.6	51.6	52.8	53.0
March 1998	55.2	55.1	56.3	55.5	51.2	51.5	52.7	53.0
April 1998	55.9	55.8	53.4	53.2	49.1	49.0	52.5	52.4
May 1998	50.9	51.5	53.2	53.0	50.0	49.1	51.5	51.6
June 1998	50.4	50.8	51.0	51.4	47.1	47.3	51.1	51.1
July 1998	51.7	51.5	51.2	51.0	45.5	45.3	50.3	50.3
August 1998	50.7	50.8	50.2	50.7	46.3	46.4	50.2	50.2
September 1998	49.1	49.2	51.6	51.5	46.1	45.8	50.8	50.7
October 1998	47.8	47.9	52.0	52.4	45.3	45.2	49.9	49.8
November 1998	47.8	47.7	49.5	49.8	45.1	45.1	50.2	50.1
December 1998	49.5	49.5	46.9	47.7	41.1	42.0	48.6	48.2

January 1999	51.8	51.6	53.7	53.7	45.2	45.5	51.0	51.2
February 1999	56.1	55.2	56.3	55.6	45.6	45.7	50.9	51.1
March 1999	56.7	56.4	58.0	56.7	47.6	47.9	52.1	52.4
April 1999	54.9	54.6	57.7	57.3	48.9	48.8	49.5	49.5
May 1999	57.3	58.2	58.7	58.4	52.2	50.9	52.0	52.1
June 1999	59.9	60.5	62.5	63.1	51.3	51.6	53.1	53.1
July 1999	53.9	53.8	58.7	58.5	50.7	50.3	54.2	54.3
August 1999	57.2	57.4	57.4	58.5	52.8	52.9	51.2	51.2
September 1999	63.2	63.2	61.0	60.4	51.8	51.4	55.7	55.5
October 1999	60.8	61.1	58.8	59.4	53.0	52.9	56.4	56.1
November 1999	61.9	61.8	58.6	59.1	52.6	52.7	56.1	56.1
December 1999	59.6	60.1	59.0	60.4	54.6	56.2	56.7	56.1

January 2000	60.4	59.9	55.9	55.9	52.7	53.1	55.2	55.4
February 2000	60.5	59.3	61.3	60.4	53.2	53.3	55.0	55.3
March 2000	56.9	56.6	61.8	60.0	51.5	51.7	54.1	54.4
April 2000	56.3	55.9	58.2	57.8	53.2	53.0	55.6	55.4
May 2000	51.1	52.1	56.3	56.0	54.1	52.5	55.0	55.1
June 2000	50.6	51.1	53.6	54.2	50.8	51.0	55.1	55.1
July 2000	49.9	49.8	53.4	53.2	52.7	52.5	54.2	54.3
August 2000	49.7	50.0	48.7	49.9	48.2	48.4	53.1	53.3
September 2000	49.1	48.9	52.1	51.4	50.9	50.4	49.3	49.0
October 2000	48.0	48.2	48.4	48.9	47.9	47.8	51.4	51.1
November 2000	48.4	48.3	49.6	50.1	46.0	46.2	49.2	49.3
December 2000	42.0	42.5	42.4	43.5	42.8	44.1	52.7	52.1

Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000

	Inventories		Prices		Export Orders		Imports
	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision
January 1997	43.3	43.2	53.2	53.3	55.7	56.0	52.6	52.7
February 1997	41.1	41.3	56.0	56.4	54.4	54.2	51.7	52.2
March 1997	43.5	43.5	51.3	51.1	56.7	56.6	49.0	48.8
April 1997	41.1	41.4	51.2	50.3	55.1	55.4	52.5	52.4
May 1997	48.0	48.1	48.4	48.5	54.6	54.6	53.1	52.9
June 1997	45.2	45.2	48.7	48.9	53.9	53.9	54.7	54.6
July 1997	46.1	45.9	51.9	52.0	55.7	55.8	54.6	54.7
August 1997	43.1	43.0	52.0	52.1	55.0	55.0	53.9	53.7
September 1997	47.2	47.2	53.5	53.0	49.8	49.9	52.4	52.3
October 1997	45.4	45.0	53.4	53.6	53.1	53.2	51.7	51.6
November 1997	43.8	43.8	51.5	52.1	53.7	53.4	53.6	53.6
December 1997	46.7	46.8	51.9	52.2	51.0	50.9	56.2	56.5

January 1998	46.2	46.2	47.2	47.3	45.6	46.0	54.4	54.7
February 1998	46.5	46.9	46.5	46.9	48.5	48.2	51.3	52.1
March 1998	46.4	46.2	44.6	44.2	47.4	47.1	52.9	52.5
April 1998	45.3	45.8	42.0	40.7	48.6	48.9	54.8	54.4
May 1998	45.8	45.9	41.0	41.1	46.9	46.9	52.9	52.5
June 1998	42.1	42.2	38.7	39.1	46.5	46.3	52.2	52.0
July 1998	44.1	43.9	38.0	37.9	45.5	45.5	50.7	50.8
August 1998	45.1	44.8	37.2	37.3	43.9	44.0	51.3	51.1
September 1998	43.4	43.4	33.8	33.5	44.3	44.3	52.1	52.1
October 1998	47.4	46.9	34.2	34.3	43.3	43.6	51.2	51.2
November 1998	44.3	44.3	34.0	34.5	43.7	43.6	50.4	50.4
December 1998	42.2	42.5	32.2	32.6	46.0	45.8	50.7	51.1

January 1999	42.6	42.6	33.8	34.1	49.1	49.7	49.8	50.3
February 1999	44.2	44.7	36.2	36.6	53.9	53.4	52.5	53.5
March 1999	44.4	44.1	43.0	42.5	50.8	50.3	53.9	53.3
April 1999	45.7	46.3	49.9	47.8	50.8	51.3	52.7	52.0
May 1999	43.2	43.3	51.2	51.2	51.8	51.7	53.8	53.1
June 1999	44.8	44.9	53.1	53.8	52.7	52.4	52.6	52.4
July 1999	44.8	44.4	54.6	54.5	51.0	51.1	53.2	53.6
August 1999	46.8	46.1	59.1	59.4	54.1	54.3	53.9	53.6
September 1999	43.9	44.0	65.4	64.9	55.7	55.6	55.0	55.0
October 1999	48.5	47.6	67.6	67.7	53.9	54.6	54.3	54.2
November 1999	49.5	49.5	66.6	67.9	55.7	55.7	52.1	52.1
December 1999	47.8	48.6	68.3	69.4	55.1	54.7	52.2	52.9

January 2000	53.4	53.4	72.6	73.5	52.6	53.2	51.9	52.5
February 2000	45.2	45.7	74.1	74.8	55.6	54.9	50.6	51.6
March 2000	48.4	47.8	79.8	78.5	55.3	54.7	54.9	54.1
April 2000	45.2	45.9	76.0	72.3	50.7	51.2	55.1	54.2
May 2000	47.1	47.3	65.8	65.7	56.3	56.1	54.7	53.9
June 2000	47.4	47.8	61.2	62.2	53.2	52.8	56.0	55.9
July 2000	48.4	47.8	61.9	61.8	51.5	51.7	49.8	50.3
August 2000	47.8	47.0	56.2	56.6	50.7	50.9	51.9	51.6
September 2000	45.9	46.3	58.1	57.8	50.3	50.2	50.5	50.4
October 2000	45.4	44.3	56.5	56.5	48.3	49.1	51.8	51.8
November 2000	42.2	42.1	56.6	57.5	48.7	48.8	53.2	53.3
December 2000	39.8	40.7	61.0	62.2	49.9	49.5	51.2	51.9

The National Association of Purchasing Management is a not-for-profit association that provides national and international leadership in purchasing and supply management research and education. The association exists to educate, develop, and advance the purchasing and supply management profession. NAPM provides members and nonmembers alike with opportunities to expand their professional knowledge and skills. NAPM is comprised of 180 affiliates with more than 46,000 members throughout the United States.