FOR RELEASE: August 3, 2007
Contact: | Rose Marie Goupil |
ISM, Media Relations | |
Tempe, Arizona | |
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015 | |
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws |
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2007.
(Tempe, Arizona) — Business activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a slower rate in July 2007, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president – supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. "Non-manufacturing business activity increased for the 52nd consecutive month in July," Nieves said. He added, "Business Activity, New Orders and Employment increased at a slower rate in July than in June. The Business Activity Index registered 55.8 percent, a decrease of 4.9 percent. The New Orders Index decreased to 52.8 percent, and the Prices Index decreased to 61.3 percent in July, both indicating growth at a slower rate than in June. Nine non-manufacturing industries reported increased activity in July. Members' comments in July are mixed about business conditions. The overall indication in July is continued economic growth in the non-manufacturing sector, but at a slower pace than in June."
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* JULY 2007 |
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
Index | Series Index July |
Series Index June |
Percent Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend** (Months) |
Series Index July |
Series Index June |
Percent Point Change |
Business Activity/Production | 55.8 | 60.7 | -4.9 | Growing | Slower | 52 | 55.6 | 62.9 | -7.3 |
New Orders | 52.8 | 56.9 | -4.1 | Growing | Slower | 52 | 57.5 | 60.3 | -2.8 |
Employment | 51.7 | 55.0 | -3.3 | Growing | Slower | 36 | 50.2 | 51.1 | -0.9 |
Supplier Deliveries | 51.5 | 50.5 | +1.0 | Slowing | Faster | 2 | 52.0 | 49.7 | +2.3 |
Inventories | 55.0 | 52.5 | +2.5 | Growing | Faster | 6 | 48.5 | 45.3 | +3.2 |
Prices | 61.3 | 65.5 | -4.2 | Increasing | Slower | 50 | 65.0 | 68.0 | -3.0 |
Backlog of Orders | 53.0 | 46.5 | +6.5 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 52.0 | 53.5 | -1.5 |
New Export Orders | 52.5 | 59.0 | -6.5 | Growing | Slower | 4 | 56.5 | 56.0 | +0.5 |
Imports | 54.5 | 57.5 | -3.0 | Growing | Slower | 4 | 54.5 | 54.5 | 0.0 |
Inventory Sentiment | 65.0 | 60.5 | +4.5 | "Too High" | Faster | 122 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Customers' Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51.0 | 47.0 | +4.0 |
* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
** Number of months moving in current direction
Airfare; Building Materials (3); Car Rentals (3); Champagne; Cheese (2); Copper Fittings; #2 Diesel Fuel (5); Electricity (2); Fuel (6); Fuel Costs; Hotel Costs (14); Landscaping Services; Lumber — Pine, Plywood, Spruce and Treated; Milk; Office Furniture; Office Supplies; Paper — Cut Sheet; and Wine and Spirits.
Diesel Fuel (2) and Gasoline (2).
Construction Services/Contractors (5); Contract Personnel; Purchasing and Supply Professionals; and Skilled Labor.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in July registered 55.8 percent compared to the 60.7 percent registered in June, indicating a slower rate of growth in business activity in July. The implication is that non-manufacturing business activity is continuing to increase for the 52nd consecutive month. Nine industries reported increased business activity, and six industries reported decreased activity for the month of July.
The industries reporting growth of business activity in July are: Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Construction; Public Administration; Educational Services; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting decreased activity from June to July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services*; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
Business Activity |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 30 | 52 | 18 | 55.8 |
June 2007 | 40 | 49 | 11 | 60.7 |
May 2007 | 39 | 46 | 15 | 59.7 |
April 2007 | 37 | 48 | 15 | 56.0 |
THE LAST 12 MONTHS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Month | Business Activity Index |
Month | Business Activity Index |
|
Jul 2007 | 55.8 | Jan 2007 | 59.0 | |
Jun 2007 | 60.7 | Dec 2006 | 56.7 | |
May 2007 | 59.7 | Nov 2006 | 58.3 | |
Apr 2007 | 56.0 | Oct 2006 | 57.4 | |
Mar 2007 | 52.4 | Sep 2006 | 54.6 | |
Feb 2007 | 54.3 | Aug 2006 | 56.9 | |
Average for 12 months — 56.8 High — 60.7 Low — 52.4 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index decreased to 52.8 percent in July from the 56.9 percent registered in June. This indicates continued expansion of new orders, but at a slower rate than in June. Comments from members include: "Fewer new job orders" and "Less patient visits."
Industries reporting growth of new orders in July are: Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Information; Construction; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The industries reporting contraction of new orders in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.
New Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 25 | 57 | 18 | 52.8 |
June 2007 | 34 | 52 | 14 | 56.9 |
May 2007 | 33 | 54 | 13 | 57.4 |
April 2007 | 33 | 53 | 14 | 55.5 |
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a slower rate in July compared to June. This was the 36th consecutive monthly increase in non-manufacturing employment. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for July is 51.7 percent, a 3.3 percentage point decrease from the 55 percent reported in June. Ten industries reported increased employment, six reported a decrease, and two indicated employment is unchanged from June. Comments from respondents include: "Natural attrition and hiring freezes"; "Reducing temps and not replacing some positions"; and "Retirements occur at above average levels from May through June each year."
The industries reporting growth in employment in July are: Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting a reduction in employment in July are: Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; and Public Administration.
Employment |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 21 | 66 | 13 | 51.7 |
June 2007 | 24 | 67 | 9 | 55.0 |
May 2007 | 23 | 68 | 9 | 54.9 |
April 2007 | 19 | 69 | 12 | 51.9 |
In July, the delivery performance of suppliers to non-manufacturing organizations was slower than in June. The index registered 51.5 percent, 1 percentage point higher than in June. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The industries reporting slowing in supplier deliveries in July are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; and Public Administration. The industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in July are: Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information.
Supplier Deliveries |
% Slower |
% Same |
% Faster |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 8 | 87 | 5 | 51.5 |
June 2007 | 8 | 85 | 7 | 50.5 |
May 2007 | 7 | 85 | 8 | 49.5 |
April 2007 | 9 | 84 | 7 | 51.0 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 55 percent in July, indicating that inventories are growing at a faster rate compared to June. Inventories are expanding for the sixth consecutive month after one month of contraction in January 2007. Of the total respondents in July, 29 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from members include: "Stocking seasonal items for special events"; "We are increasing all of our inventory to be closer to our max levels as opposed to our minimum levels"; and "Past activity still drives purchase quantities."
The industries reporting increases in inventories in July are: Information; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade. The industries reporting decreases in inventories in July are: Other Services*; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.
Inventories |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 28 | 54 | 18 | 55.0 |
June 2007 | 21 | 63 | 16 | 52.5 |
May 2007 | 29 | 64 | 7 | 61.0 |
April 2007 | 17 | 70 | 13 | 52.0 |
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in July for the 50th consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for July is 61.3 percent, 4.2 percentage points lower than June's index of 65.5 percent. In July, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices decreased by 6 percentage points to 29 percent as compared to June. The percentage indicating no change increased from 62 percent in June to 68 percent in July. The percentage of respondents noting lower prices remained the same at 3 percent in July.
The industries reporting an increase in prices paid in July are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Utilities. No industry is reporting a decrease in prices in July.
Prices |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 29 | 68 | 3 | 61.3 |
June 2007 | 35 | 62 | 3 | 65.5 |
May 2007 | 41 | 55 | 4 | 66.4 |
April 2007 | 42 | 54 | 4 | 63.5 |
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index registered 53 percent in July, 6.5 percentage points higher than the 46.5 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 43 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.
The industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in July are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Construction; and Wholesale Trade. The industries reporting lower backlog of orders in July are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
Backlog of Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 14 | 78 | 8 | 53.0 |
June 2007 | 14 | 65 | 21 | 46.5 |
May 2007 | 13 | 70 | 17 | 48.0 |
April 2007 | 20 | 60 | 20 | 50.0 |
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel in July increased for the fourth consecutive month after one month of contraction in March 2007. The New Export Orders Index for July is 52.5 percent, compared to June's index of 59 percent. Of the total respondents in July, 71 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the United States.
The industries reporting an increase in new export orders in July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The three industries reporting a decrease in export orders are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Wholesale Trade.
New Export Orders |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 22 | 61 | 17 | 52.5 |
June 2007 | 26 | 66 | 8 | 59.0 |
May 2007 | 36 | 60 | 4 | 66.0 |
April 2007 | 23 | 65 | 12 | 55.5 |
In July, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Imports Index registered 54.5 percent, 3 percentage points lower than June's index of 57.5 percent, indicating that use of imports increased at a slower rate in July when compared to June. In July, 63 percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track, the use of imported materials.
The industries reporting an increase in the use of imports in July are: Information; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries reporting a decrease in imports for the month of July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Wholesale Trade.
Imports |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 19 | 71 | 10 | 54.5 |
June 2007 | 24 | 67 | 9 | 57.5 |
May 2007 | 17 | 77 | 6 | 55.5 |
April 2007 | 18 | 69 | 13 | 52.5 |
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in July registered 65 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the 60.5 percent reported in June. This indicates that non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives feel more discomfort with current levels of inventory in July than they did during June. In July, 35 percent of respondents felt their inventories were too high, 5 percent indicated their inventories were too low, and 60 percent said that their inventories were about right.
The industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in July are: Other Services*; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Retail Trade. The one industry reporting that their inventories are too low is Construction.
Inventory Sentiment |
%Too High |
%About Right |
%Too Low |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 2007 | 35 | 60 | 5 | 65.0 |
June 2007 | 23 | 75 | 2 | 60.5 |
May 2007 | 26 | 70 | 4 | 61.0 |
April 2007 | 27 | 67 | 6 | 60.5 |
*Other Services include:
Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services*; and Public Administration.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower and faster for Supplier Deliveries). Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the largest supply management research and education organization in the United States. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education.
The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the third business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).
The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the August 2007 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Thursday, September 6, 2007.