FOR RELEASE: January 25, 2006
Contact: | Rose Marie Goupil |
ISM, Media Relations | |
Tempe, Arizona | |
800/888-6276, ext. 3015 | |
rgoupil@ism.ws |
(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™(ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2006 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2006 and the January 2006 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business®, which will be released on February 3, 2006.
Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2006).
The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the indexes for 2002 through 2005 as well as the 2006 projected seasonal factors for Manufacturing. Due to the shorter history for the Non-Manufacturing Report, these indexes have been revised from 1997 through 2005. The 2006 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2007. Projected seasonal factors for 2006 are listed on the next page. Revised indexes for all other indicators are shown on pages 3 through 6, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI and Business Activity Index for Non-Manufacturing on page 7.
As part of the Department of Commerce's annual review, the Manufacturing Imports series will no longer be seasonally adjusted, effective with the January 2006 seasonal adjustments.
(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)
New Orders |
Production | Employment | Supplier Deliveries |
Inventories | Export Orders |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
January 2006 | 0.982 | 0.998 | 0.995 | 0.968 | 1.021 | 1.000 |
February 2006 | 1.026 | 1.027 | 0.991 | 0.996 | 1.049 | 0.991 |
March 2006 | 1.071 | 1.043 | 1.028 | 1.016 | 1.026 | 1.039 |
April 2006 | 1.068 | 1.051 | 1.021 | 0.997 | 1.004 | 1.029 |
May 2006 | 1.034 | 1.022 | 1.058 | 1.015 | 1.010 | 1.015 |
June 2006 | 1.001 | 0.998 | 1.058 | 1.018 | 1.012 | 1.020 |
July 2006 | 0.980 | 0.955 | 1.006 | 1.011 | 0.950 | 0.993 |
August 2006 | 0.968 | 0.946 | 0.963 | 1.018 | 1.016 | 0.978 |
September 2006 | 1.015 | 1.025 | 0.972 | 0.998 | 1.013 | 0.976 |
October 2006 | 0.951 | 0.983 | 0.955 | 1.005 | 0.961 | 0.969 |
November 2006 | 0.976 | 0.989 | 0.986 | 0.985 | 0.956 | 1.002 |
December 2006 | 0.931 | 0.965 | 0.966 | 0.974 | 0.982 | 0.986 |
Weight | .30 | .25 | .20 | .15 | .10 | (Not part of PMI) |
To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.
Business Activity |
New Orders |
Employment | Prices | |
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2006 | 0.924 | 0.964 | 0.969 | 0.990 |
February 2006 | 0.990 | 1.005 | 0.954 | 1.041 |
March 2006 | 1.049 | 1.016 | 1.007 | 1.075 |
April 2006 | 1.055 | 1.022 | 1.035 | 1.078 |
May 2006 | 1.023 | 1.032 | 1.017 | 0.974 |
June 2006 | 1.061 | 1.061 | 1.057 | 0.988 |
July 2006 | 1.022 | 1.026 | 1.037 | 0.982 |
August 2006 | 0.965 | 0.998 | 0.992 | 0.967 |
September 2006 | 1.002 | 0.971 | 0.961 | 0.997 |
October 2006 | 0.980 | 0.956 | 0.981 | 1.011 |
November 2006 | 0.993 | 0.990 | 1.007 | 0.963 |
December 2006 | 0.937 | 0.956 | 0.985 | 0.939 |
PMI | New Orders |
Production | Employment | Supplier Deliveries |
Inventories | Export Orders |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 2002 | 49.1 | 55.2 | 51.1 | 41.0 | 51.2 | 39.2 | 50.1 |
Feb 2002 | 53.2 | 60.7 | 58.1 | 43.8 | 51.4 | 39.7 | 50.7 |
Mar 2002 | 55.0 | 63.8 | 58.3 | 46.6 | 51.9 | 41.4 | 50.6 |
Apr 2002 | 54.4 | 59.9 | 59.1 | 46.6 | 53.5 | 43.0 | 51.9 |
May 2002 | 55.2 | 61.8 | 59.4 | 47.3 | 53.4 | 43.8 | 53.3 |
Jun 2002 | 55.8 | 61.2 | 61.1 | 48.3 | 54.4 | 43.2 | 54.1 |
Jul 2002 | 51.2 | 51.9 | 56.6 | 45.0 | 54.8 | 42.7 | 52.2 |
Aug 2002 | 50.9 | 50.6 | 54.9 | 46.8 | 53.6 | 45.4 | 53.4 |
Sep 2002 | 51.3 | 52.9 | 53.5 | 45.8 | 56.7 | 43.8 | 53.8 |
Oct 2002 | 50.0 | 52.1 | 51.3 | 46.4 | 53.4 | 42.0 | 53.0 |
Nov 2002 | 49.2 | 49.9 | 52.7 | 44.8 | 52.1 | 43.1 | 50.0 |
Dec 2002 | 53.1 | 58.7 | 53.9 | 47.5 | 52.9 | 45.2 | 52.0 |
Jan 2003 | 52.8 | 58.7 | 54.1 | 46.6 | 52.8 | 44.1 | 54.4 |
Feb 2003 | 49.9 | 52.4 | 53.1 | 43.1 | 52.8 | 43.1 | 55.2 |
Mar 2003 | 46.4 | 46.7 | 47.3 | 42.2 | 52.5 | 42.4 | 51.3 |
Apr 2003 | 46.5 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 41.9 | 50.0 | 43.2 | 50.8 |
May 2003 | 50.0 | 53.0 | 53.4 | 42.7 | 50.8 | 45.6 | 51.7 |
Jun 2003 | 50.5 | 53.9 | 54.3 | 45.5 | 49.8 | 41.6 | 54.6 |
Jul 2003 | 52.3 | 56.6 | 54.7 | 46.2 | 51.5 | 46.6 | 54.4 |
Aug 2003 | 55.5 | 61.0 | 61.9 | 47.1 | 53.1 | 43.2 | 56.4 |
Sep 2003 | 54.4 | 60.5 | 58.5 | 46.4 | 53.2 | 43.1 | 54.5 |
Oct 2003 | 57.2 | 64.2 | 62.2 | 48.6 | 54.4 | 45.5 | 59.5 |
Nov 2003 | 60.6 | 69.3 | 65.3 | 50.4 | 56.2 | 49.9 | 57.1 |
Dec 2003 | 63.2 | 71.6 | 69.1 | 54.6 | 59.2 | 45.9 | 59.3 |
Jan 2004 | 62.9 | 70.4 | 68.5 | 53.1 | 61.6 | 47.7 | 57.2 |
Feb 2004 | 62.2 | 67.5 | 65.2 | 56.7 | 62.9 | 49.0 | 55.1 |
Mar 2004 | 62.3 | 65.4 | 66.2 | 56.8 | 66.6 | 48.2 | 60.2 |
Apr 2004 | 63.0 | 67.0 | 67.2 | 57.7 | 67.1 | 45.2 | 59.9 |
May 2004 | 62.9 | 63.9 | 65.8 | 60.8 | 68.5 | 48.6 | 60.0 |
Jun 2004 | 61.5 | 61.8 | 64.0 | 59.2 | 66.9 | 50.4 | 57.3 |
Jul 2004 | 61.5 | 63.2 | 65.0 | 57.2 | 64.5 | 51.3 | 56.7 |
Aug 2004 | 59.6 | 61.7 | 60.5 | 56.4 | 62.9 | 52.3 | 55.8 |
Sep 2004 | 58.0 | 57.4 | 60.4 | 57.9 | 59.7 | 51.0 | 53.5 |
Oct 2004 | 56.8 | 57.8 | 58.5 | 55.4 | 58.8 | 49.3 | 56.7 |
Nov 2004 | 56.9 | 59.5 | 56.6 | 56.9 | 56.6 | 50.6 | 54.5 |
Dec 2004 | 58.6 | 66.3 | 57.1 | 54.0 | 55.5 | 53.0 | 59.1 |
Jan 2005 | 56.3 | 57.3 | 57.4 | 56.9 | 54.1 | 52.5 | 56.5 |
Feb 2005 | 55.6 | 56.4 | 57.2 | 57.1 | 54.1 | 48.6 | 56.5 |
Mar 2005 | 55.3 | 57.2 | 56.9 | 53.0 | 52.7 | 53.7 | 55.1 |
Apr 2005 | 53.8 | 54.7 | 57.2 | 52.3 | 52.1 | 48.2 | 57.0 |
May 2005 | 51.8 | 51.9 | 55.7 | 49.1 | 51.2 | 47.8 | 55.3 |
Jun 2005 | 54.0 | 57.2 | 56.3 | 50.4 | 53.1 | 47.5 | 51.2 |
Jul 2005 | 56.4 | 60.0 | 60.5 | 53.2 | 52.3 | 47.9 | 55.8 |
Aug 2005 | 53.5 | 55.8 | 55.9 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 46.1 | 54.5 |
Sep 2005 | 58.0 | 60.7 | 61.7 | 53.1 | 58.6 | 49.0 | 57.3 |
Oct 2005 | 58.1 | 59.9 | 60.8 | 54.9 | 60.8 | 48.4 | 55.2 |
Nov 2005 | 57.3 | 58.5 | 60.2 | 56.0 | 56.9 | 49.3 | 57.9 |
Dec 2005 | 55.6 | 59.1 | 57.8 | 53.6 | 52.9 | 47.3 | 54.3 |
Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors Continued...