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April 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: May 2, 2011


Contact: Rose Marie Goupil
ISM, ROB Media Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws


PMI at 60.4%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of April 2011.


New Orders, Production, Employment,
and Inventories Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the 21st consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 23rd consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The recent trend of rapid growth in the manufacturing sector continued in April as the PMI registered above 60 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The New Orders and Production Indexes continue to drive the PMI, as they have both exceeded 60 percent for five consecutive months. Manufacturing employment appears to have developed significant momentum, as the Employment Index readings for the first four months of 2011 are the highest readings in the last 38 years. Inventory growth also took place in April after two months of destocking; however, the inventory restocking would appear to be necessitated by the strong performance in new orders. While the manufacturing sector is definitely performing above most expectations so far in 2011, manufacturers are experiencing significant cost pressures from commodities and other inputs."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 17 are reporting growth in April, in the following order: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Petroleum & Coal Products. Furniture & Related Products is the only industry reporting contraction in April.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Rapidly rising raw material costs putting extreme pressure on profits." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Plastic resin product prices are climbing so fast that [suppliers] are attempting to increase prices on orders already accepted but not [yet] delivered." (Chemical Products)
  • "Customers are rebuilding safety stock levels of inventory, and also trying to buy ahead of material price increases." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Market continues to get stronger month over month. Recovery is faster than anticipated." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Pressure from offshore suppliers continues to mount with exchange rate increases and seasonal demand for capacity." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
APRIL 2011


Index
Series
Index
April
Series
Index
March
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 60.4 61.2 -0.8 Growing Slower 21
New Orders 61.7 63.3 -1.6 Growing Slower 22
Production 63.8 69.0 -5.2 Growing Slower 23
Employment 62.7 63.0 -0.3 Growing Slower 19
Supplier Deliveries 60.2 63.1 -2.9 Slowing Slower 23
Inventories 53.6 47.4 +6.2 Growing From Contracting 1
Customers' Inventories 40.5 39.5 +1.0 Too Low Slower 25
Prices 85.5 85.0 +0.5 Increasing Faster 22
Backlog of Orders 61.0 52.5 +8.5 Growing Faster 4
Exports 62.0 56.0 +6.0 Growing Faster 22
Imports 55.5 56.5 -1.0 Growing Slower 20
             
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 23
Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 21

*Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (8); Aluminum Products (4); Brass (5); Caustic Soda (2); Chemicals (2); Cocoa/Cocoa Powder (3); Copper (9); Copper Based Products (6); Copper Wire; Corn (8); Diesel (5); Electric/Electronic Components (2); Fuel Oils (4); Fuel Surcharges (2); High Density Polyethylene (2); LDPE; Natural Gas; Oils and Lubrication; PET (2); Plastics (4); Plastic Products (4); Plastic Resins (6); Poly Bags; Polyethylene (3); Polyethylene Resin (4); Polypropylene (4); Resins (2); Resin Based Products (2); Rubber (2); Rubber Products (3); Silver (2); Solvents; Stainless Steel (6); Steel (8); Steel — Cold Rolled; Steel — Galvanized; Steel Products (5); Titanium Dioxide; and Transportation Rates (2).

Commodities Down in Price

No commodities are reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

Capacitors; Electric/Electronic Components (4); Nuts — Food; and Titanium Dioxide (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.



APRIL 2011 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


PMI

Manufacturing continued its rapid growth in April as the PMI registered 60.4 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point when compared to March's reading of 61.2 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 23rd consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 21st consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through April (61 percent) corresponds to a 6.5 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for April (60.4 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 6.3 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month PMI   Month PMI
Apr 2011 60.4   Oct 2010 56.9
Mar 2011 61.2   Sep 2010 55.3
Feb 2011 61.4   Aug 2010 55.2
Jan 2011 60.8   Jul 2010 55.1
Dec 2010 58.5   Jun 2010 55.3
Nov 2010 58.2   May 2010 57.8
Average for 12 months – 58.0
High – 61.4
Low –55.1

New Orders

ISM's New Orders Index registered 61.7 percent in April, which is a decrease of 1.6 percentage points when compared to the 63.3 percent reported in March. This is the 22nd consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 15 industries reporting growth in new orders in April — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The two industries reporting decreases in new orders in April are: Furniture & Related Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

New
Orders
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Apr 2011 49 43 8 +41 61.7
Mar 2011 43 47 10 +33 63.3
Feb 2011 43 46 11 +32 68.0
Jan 2011 46 36 18 +28 67.8

Production

ISM's Production Index registered 63.8 percent in April, which is a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the March reading of 69 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. This is the 23rd consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 14 industries reporting growth in production during the month of April — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in April are: Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.


Production
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Apr 2011 43 52 5 +38 63.8
Mar 2011 41 52 7 +34 69.0
Feb 2011 43 47 10 +33 66.3
Jan 2011 40 44 16 +24 63.5

Employment

ISM's Employment Index registered 62.7 percent in April, which is 0.3 percentage point lower than the 63 percent reported in March. This is the 19th consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in employment in April in the following order: Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Three industries reported no change, and no industries reported a decrease in employment during April.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2011 34 61 5 +29 62.7
Mar 2011 33 59 8 +25 63.0
Feb 2011 35 56 9 +26 64.5
Jan 2011 24 69 7 +17 61.7

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in April as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 60.2 percent, which is 2.9 percentage points lower than the 63.1 percent registered in March. This is the 23rd consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 10 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in April — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. None of the manufacturing industries reported faster deliveries in April.

Supplier
Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Net

Index
Apr 2011 24 73 3 +21 60.2
Mar 2011 26 73 1 +25 63.1
Feb 2011 24 69 7 +17 59.4
Jan 2011 18 77 5 +13 58.6

Inventories

Manufacturers' inventories increased in April following two months of decline. The Inventories Index registered 53.6 percent, 6.2 percentage points higher than the 47.4 percent recorded for March. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The nine industries reporting higher inventories in April — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment. The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in April — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2011 27 55 18 +9 53.6
Mar 2011 19 60 21 -2 47.4
Feb 2011 19 63 18 +1 48.8
Jan 2011 25 54 21 +4 52.4

Customers' Inventories*

The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 40.5 percent in April, 1 percentage point higher than in March when the index registered 39.5 percent. This is the 25th consecutive month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time.

The two manufacturing industries reporting customers' inventories as being too high during April are: Paper Products and Fabricated Metal Products. The seven industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during April — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. Nine industries reported no change in customers' inventories for the month of April compared to March.

Customers'
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Net

Index
Apr 2011 73 9 63 28 -19 40.5
Mar 2011 62 11 57 32 -21 39.5
Feb 2011 66 7 66 27 -20 40.0
Jan 2011 63 11 69 20 -9 45.5

Prices*

The ISM Prices Index registered 85.5 percent in April, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 85 percent reported in March and the highest reading since July 2008 when the index registered 88.5 percent. This is the 22nd consecutive month the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While 72 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 1 percent reported paying lower prices, 27 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in March. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 17 report paying increased prices during the month of April, in the following order: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Furniture & Related Products. No manufacturing industry reported paying lower prices on average in April.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2011 72 27 1 +71 85.5
Mar 2011 72 26 2 +70 85.0
Feb 2011 66 32 2 +64 82.0
Jan 2011 64 35 1 +63 81.5

Backlog of Orders*

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 61 percent in April, which is 8.5 percentage points higher than the 52.5 percent reported in March. Of the 88 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 34 percent reported greater backlogs, 12 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 54 percent reported no change from March.

The 12 industries reporting increased order backlogs in April — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Paper Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during April are: Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.

Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Greater
%
Same
%
Less

Net

Index
Apr 2011 88 34 54 12 +22 61.0
Mar 2011 85 26 53 21 +5 52.5
Feb 2011 82 31 56 13 +18 59.0
Jan 2011 83 34 48 18 +16 58.0

New Export Orders*

ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 62 percent in April, which is 6 percentage points higher than the 56 percent reported in March. This is the 22nd consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.

The 13 industries reporting growth in new export orders in April — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Textile Mills is the only manufacturing industry reporting a decrease in export orders during April.

New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2011 81 28 68 4 +24 62.0
Mar 2011 80 23 66 11 +12 56.0
Feb 2011 81 31 63 6 +25 62.5
Jan 2011 81 30 64 6 +24 62.0

Imports*

Imports of materials by manufacturers continued to expand in April as the Imports Index registered 55.5 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the 56.5 percentage points reported in March. This is the 20th consecutive month of growth in imports.

The eight industries reporting growth in imports during the month of April — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports during April are: Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.


Imports
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2011 81 20 71 9 +11 55.5
Mar 2011 78 18 77 5 +13 56.5
Feb 2011 77 19 72 9 +10 55.0
Jan 2011 82 20 70 10 +10 55.0

*The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.


Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased 1 day to 108 days. Average lead time for Production Materials increased 6 days to 59 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies is unchanged at 23 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Apr 2011 28 6 16 16 23 11 108
Mar 2011 27 12 11 16 23 11 107
Feb 2011 32 7 8 18 24 11 108
Jan 2011 28 9 14 13 27 9 105
 

Production
Materials
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Apr 2011 15 36 27 15 4 3 59
Mar 2011 17 38 27 13 3 2 53
Feb 2011 15 38 26 13 7 1 56
Jan 2011 13 38 30 14 2 3 57
 

MRO
Supplies
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Apr 2011 44 43 12 1 0 0 23
Mar 2011 48 39 11 2 0 0 23
Feb 2011 51 36 10 2 1 0 23
Jan 2011 50 36 9 3 1 1 27

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the May 2011 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, June 1, 2011.



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