--- To enhance the value and performance of procurement and SCM practitioners and their organizations worldwide ---



April 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: May 3, 2010


Contact: Rose Marie Goupil
ISM, ROB Media Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws


PMI at 60.4%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of April 2010.


New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower
Inventories Contracting

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the ninth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 12th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the ninth consecutive month during April. The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is the fastest since June 2004 when the index hit 60.5 percent. Manufacturers continue to see extraordinary strength in new orders, as the New Orders Index has averaged 61.6 percent for the past 10 months. The signs for employment in the sector continue to improve as the Employment Index registered its fifth consecutive month of growth. Overall, the recovery in manufacturing continues quite strong, and the signs are positive for continued growth."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Seventeen of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in April, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. No industries are reporting contraction in April.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Finances continue to be tight, and we are decreasing safety stock levels to reduce inventory." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "Business conditions continue to improve. Actual sales exceeded budget for the third straight month." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Demand from automotive manufacturers has continued to improve month over month." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "We are finally seeing a turnaround." (Primary Metals)
  • "Upward price pressure still evident." (Chemical Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
APRIL 2010


Index
Series
Index
April
Series
Index
March
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 60.4 59.6 +0.8 Growing Faster 9
New Orders 65.7 61.5 +4.2 Growing Faster 10
Production 66.9 61.1 +5.8 Growing Faster 11
Employment 58.5 55.1 +3.4 Growing Faster 5
Supplier Deliveries 61.3 64.9 -3.6 Slowing Slower 11
Inventories 49.4 55.3 -5.9 Contracting From Growing 1
Customers' Inventories 33.0 39.0 -6.0 Too Low Faster 13
Prices 78.0 75.0 +3.0 Increasing Faster 10
Backlog of Orders 57.5 58.0 -0.5 Growing Slower 4
Exports 61.0 61.5 -0.5 Growing Slower 10
Imports 58.0 57.0 +1.0 Growing Faster 8
             
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 12
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 9

*Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (10); Aluminum Products; Brass Products; Caustic Soda (2); Copper (2); Copper Products (2); Corrugated Containers (2); Ferro Alloys; Plastics (4); Plastic Resins (4); Polyethylene (3); Polypropylene (5); Polypropylene Resins; Pulp; Sodium Hydroxide; Stainless Steel; Stainless Steel Products; Steel (10); Steel Products (4); and Sulfuric Acid (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Natural Gas is the only commodity reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.



APRIL 2010 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


PMI

Manufacturing continued to grow in April with the rate of growth accelerating as the PMI registered 60.4 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to March's reading of 59.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through April (58.7 percent) corresponds to a 5.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for April is annualized, it corresponds to a 6.2 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month PMI   Month PMI
Apr 2010 60.4   Oct 2009 55.2
Mar 2010 59.6   Sep 2009 52.4
Feb 2010 56.5   Aug 2009 52.8
Jan 2010 58.4   Jul 2009 49.1
Dec 2009 54.9   Jun 2009 45.3
Nov 2009 53.7   May 2009 43.2
Average for 12 months – 53.5
High – 60.4
Low – 43.2

New Orders

ISM's New Orders Index registered 65.7 percent in April, 4.2 percentage points higher than the 61.5 percent registered in March. This is the 10th consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 50.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 17 industries reporting growth in new orders in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industries reporting a decrease in new orders in April.

New
Orders
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Apr 2010 52 40 8 +44 65.7
Mar 2010 41 48 11 +30 61.5
Feb 2010 36 49 15 +21 59.5
Jan 2010 41 43 16 +25 65.9

Production

ISM's Production Index registered 66.9 percent in April, which is an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the March reading of 61.1 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. This is the 11th consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 15 industries reporting growth in production during the month of April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industries reporting a decrease in production in April.


Production
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Apr 2010 49 44 7 +42 66.9
Mar 2010 36 53 11 +25 61.1
Feb 2010 32 54 14 +18 58.4
Jan 2010 38 51 11 +27 66.2

Employment

ISM's Employment Index registered 58.5 percent in April, which is 3.4 percentage points higher than the 55.1 percent reported in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Twelve of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in April in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting a decrease in employment during April is Plastics & Rubber Products.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2010 26 68 6 +20 58.5
Mar 2010 21 69 10 +11 55.1
Feb 2010 22 68 10 +12 56.1
Jan 2010 15 73 12 +3 53.3

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in April as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.3 percent, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the 64.9 percent registered in March. This is the 11th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 12 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in April — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. There were no industry reports of faster deliveries.

Supplier
Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Net

Index
Apr 2010 22 76 2 +20 61.3
Mar 2010 27 73 0 +27 64.9
Feb 2010 23 72 5 +18 61.1
Jan 2010 18 79 3 +15 60.1

Inventories

Manufacturers' inventories contracted in April following one month of growth as the Inventories Index registered 49.4 percent. The index is 5.9 percentage points lower than the March reading of 55.3 percent. An Inventories Index greater than 42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The five industries reporting higher inventories in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries that reported decreases in inventories in April are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2010 20 61 19 +1 49.4
Mar 2010 26 61 13 +13 55.3
Feb 2010 17 64 19 -2 47.3
Jan 2010 16 60 24 -8 46.5

Customers' Inventories*

The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 33 percent in April, 6 percentage points lower than in March when the index registered 39 percent, and the 13th consecutive month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time.

There were no industry reports of customers' inventories being too high during April. The 14 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during April — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Customers'
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Net

Index
Apr 2010 72 9 48 43 -34 33.0
Mar 2010 75 11 56 33 -22 39.0
Feb 2010 71 7 60 33 -26 37.0
Jan 2010 73 4 56 40 -36 32.0

Prices*

The ISM Prices Index registered 78 percent in April, 3 percentage points higher than the 75 percent reported in March. This is the 10th consecutive month in which the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While 60 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 4 percent reported paying lower prices, 36 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in March. A Prices Index above 49.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

The 16 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of April — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industry reports of paying lower prices on average during April.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2010 60 36 4 +56 78.0
Mar 2010 53 44 3 +50 75.0
Feb 2010 39 56 5 +34 67.0
Jan 2010 44 52 4 +40 70.0

Backlog of Orders*

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 57.5 percent in April, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 58 percent reported in March. Of the 82 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 31 percent reported greater backlogs, 16 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from March.

The 10 industries reporting increased order backlogs in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The three industries that reported decreases in order backlogs during April are: Machinery; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals.

Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Greater
%
Same
%
Less

Net

Index
Apr 2010 82 31 53 16 +15 57.5
Mar 2010 84 30 56 14 +16 58.0
Feb 2010 86 33 56 11 +22 61.0
Jan 2010 84 26 60 14 +12 56.0

New Export Orders*

ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 61 percent in April, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 61.5 percent reported in March. This is the 10th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.

The 13 industries reporting growth in new export orders in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery. There were no industry reports of a decrease in export orders during April.

New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2010 79 23 76 1 +22 61.0
Mar 2010 75 30 63 7 +23 61.5
Feb 2010 79 17 79 4 +13 56.5
Jan 2010 78 19 79 2 +17 58.5

Imports*

Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in April as the Imports Index registered 58 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 57 percent reported in March. This is the eighth consecutive month of growth in imports.

The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in imports during April is Computer & Electronic Products.


Imports
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Apr 2010 83 23 70 7 +16 58.0
Mar 2010 79 21 72 7 +14 57.0
Feb 2010 81 18 76 6 +12 56.0
Jan 2010 81 20 73 7 +13 56.5

* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.


Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased 9 days to 107 days. Average lead time for Production Materials increased 5 days to 50 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 1 day to 22 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Apr 2010 32 5 10 17 26 10 107
Mar 2010 26 9 13 14 25 13 116
Feb 2010 27 6 13 15 26 13 118
Jan 2010 28 8 12 11 28 13 118
 

Production
Materials
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Apr 2010 20 48 18 8 3 3 50
Mar 2010 26 40 20 10 2 2 45
Feb 2010 22 42 21 8 5 2 50
Jan 2010 24 36 23 10 4 3 53
 

MRO
Supplies
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Apr 2010 50 38 8 4 0 0 22
Mar 2010 49 39 8 4 0 0 23
Feb 2010 48 36 13 3 0 0 24
Jan 2010 54 34 8 4 0 0 21

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the May 2010 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Tuesday, June 1, 2010.



Back to Top





Rate and Review this item

Rate this item:



Log in to rate or review this item.