Thursday, January 25, 2007
   


KARRASS

Institute for Supply Management

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ISM's 92nd Annual International Supply Management Conference

In This Special Issue ...


2007 Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors

The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™(ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2007 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2007, and the January 2007 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 5, 2007.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2007).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the indexes for 2003 through 2006 as well as the 2007 projected seasonal factors for Manufacturing. For the Non-Manufacturing Report, these indexes have been revised from 2003 through 2006 also. The 2007 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2008. Projected seasonal factors for 2007 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes for 2003-2006 are below, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI and Business Activity Index for Non-Manufacturing.

As part of the Department of Commerce's annual review, the Manufacturing Export Orders series will no longer be seasonally adjusted, effective with the January 2007 seasonal adjustments.

To read the entire release click here

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Term of the Day

Today's ISM Term of the Day is: OBJECTIVE MEASURE.

Definition: Measurement that relies on concrete observable data rather than on perception.

A different Term of the Day is posted on the ISM Home Page (www.ism.ws) each day -- 7 days a week. The Term of the Day is taken from the ISM Glossary of Key Supply Management Terms.

ISM members can access the online Members Only ISM Glossary of Key Supply Management Terms which can be browsed alphabetically, or searched by keyword.

To access the online Glossary click here.

If you are not a member but would like membership information click here.

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Contact Us

Questions/Comments? Contact RaeAnn Slaybaugh.

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