View Full Version : Forecasting models incorporating seasonality

05-27-2010, 02:19 PM
Our company is trying to better incorporate seasonality in our forecasting model to address the stockout issues due to seasonal fluctuations. Any idea/thoughts to suggest?

06-30-2010, 01:16 AM
I have built an excel-based system that incorporates seasonality (among other things) in the context of ensuring product availability and preventing stock outs. It is part of my dissertation and I would welcome any feedback if you are interested in spending a few minutes looking at it.

It also incorporates shortage costs, cross-product effects (i.e., elasticities), multiple discounts, nuances of style goods, space limitations, and varying season lengths. If any of these are not germane to your needs, you can ignore them and focus on the seasonality component.

Write me at susanehorne@gmail.com and I will promptly send it on.

07-21-2010, 01:50 AM
A basic forecasting model that includes seasonality is 'Winter's Model'. You can pick up any operations textbook or get the basic tenets online. You can build in a great deal of complexity, but the base case is a good starting point.

You'll want to simulate forecast accuracy looking back if possible. Meaning - if you had used the model to forecast your demand in 2008 and 2009 (using the historical data you had at those points in time) - would your forecast have been more or less accurate?