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September 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: October 1, 2009


Contact: Rose Marie Goupil
ISM, ROB Media Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws


PMI at 52.6%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2009.


New Orders and Production Growing
Employment and Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slower

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the second consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the fifth consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the second consecutive month in September. While the rate of growth moderated slightly when compared to August, the recovery broadened as the number of industries reporting growth increased from 11 to 13. Both new orders and production are growing, but at a slower rate when compared to August. It appears the fundamentals for continuing recovery are still at work as inventories and sales are gaining balance. This month, we asked a special question with regard to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Twelve of the 18 manufacturing industries expect to derive some benefit from the program, and 12 manufacturing industries responded that they expect their companies to see some benefit."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

In September, 13 of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth. The industries — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The four industries reporting contraction in September are: Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Machinery.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Purchasing remains a challenge as suppliers now seem to be trying to raise pricing at any sign of life in the economy." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Business is picking up — lots of opportunities." (Primary Metals)
  • "Agricultural commodities continue to weaken, with the exception of the domestic and world sugar markets." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Automotive demand continues to be strong even after 'cash for clunkers.'" (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Business remains slow, with no sign of improvement again this month." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
SEPTEMBER 2009


Index
Series
Index
September
Series
Index
August
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 52.6 52.9 -0.3 Growing Slower 2
New Orders 60.8 64.9 -4.1 Growing Slower 3
Production 55.7 61.9 -6.2 Growing Slower 4
Employment 46.2 46.4 -0.2 Contracting Faster 14
Supplier Deliveries 58.0 57.1 +0.9 Slowing Faster 4
Inventories 42.5 34.4 +8.1 Contracting Slower 41
Customers' Inventories 39.0 39.0 0 Too Low Same 6
Prices 63.5 65.0 -1.5 Increasing Slower 3
Backlog of Orders 53.5 52.5 +1.0 Growing Faster 2
Exports 55.0 55.5 -0.5 Growing Slower 3
Imports 52.0 49.5 +2.5 Growing From Contracting 1
             
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 5
Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 2

*Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (3); Copper (4); Copper Based Products (3); Diesel Fuel; Plastic Products; Polypropylene (3); PVC; Stainless Steel (2); Stainless Steel Products (2); Steel (3); and Steel Products (3).

Commodities Down in Price

No commodities are reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

Electronic Components is the only commodity reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.



SEPTEMBER 2009 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


PMI

The recovery in manufacturing continues as the PMI registered 52.6 percent in September, which is 0.3 percentage point lower than the 52.9 percent reported in August, and the second month of expansion following 18 months of decline. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the fifth consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month since January 2008. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through September (43.3 percent) corresponds to a 0.7 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, if the PMI for September (52.6 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.6 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month PMI   Month PMI
Sep 2009 52.6   Mar 2009 36.3
Aug 2009 52.9   Feb 2009 35.8
Jul 2009 48.9   Jan 2009 35.6
Jun 2009 44.8   Dec 2008 32.9
May 2009 42.8   Nov 2008 36.6
Apr 2009 40.1   Oct 2008 38.7
Average for 12 months – 41.5
High – 52.9
Low – 32.9

New Orders

ISM's New Orders Index registered 60.8 percent in September, 4.1 percentage points lower than the 64.9 percent registered in August. This is the third consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 48.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 13 industries reporting growth in new orders in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries reporting decreases in new orders in September are: Primary Metals; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

New
Orders
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Sep 2009 42 38 20 +22 60.8
Aug 2009 43 41 16 +27 64.9
Jul 2009 33 45 22 +11 55.3
Jun 2009 28 48 24 +4 49.2

Production

ISM's Production Index registered 55.7 percent in September, which is a decrease of 6.2 percentage points from the August reading of 61.9 percent. An index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. This is the fourth consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting decreases in production in September are: Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.


Production
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Sep 2009 36 46 18 +18 55.7
Aug 2009 43 39 18 +25 61.9
Jul 2009 33 50 17 +16 57.9
Jun 2009 32 46 22 +10 52.5

Employment

ISM's Employment Index registered 46.2 percent in September, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than the 46.4 percent reported in August. This is the 14th consecutive month of decline in employment. An Employment Index above 49.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Three of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in September: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 10 industries that reported decreases in employment during September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2009 15 62 23 -8 46.2
Aug 2009 13 68 19 -6 46.4
Jul 2009 11 70 19 -8 45.6
Jun 2009 9 66 25 -16 40.7

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 58 percent, which is 0.9 percentage point higher than the 57.1 percent registered in August. This is the fourth consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent, following eight months of faster delivery performance. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The nine industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting faster deliveries in September are: Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Supplier
Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Net

Index
Sep 2009 24 71 5 +19 58.0
Aug 2009 18 79 3 +15 57.1
Jul 2009 14 80 6 +8 52.0
Jun 2009 8 87 5 +3 50.6

Inventories

Manufacturers' inventories contracted at a slower rate in September as the Inventories Index registered 42.5 percent. The index is 8.1 percentage points higher than the August reading of 34.4 percent. An Inventories Index greater than 42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Two of the 18 manufacturing industries reported higher inventories in September: Wood Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 12 industries that reported decreases in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2009 14 55 31 -17 42.5
Aug 2009 14 44 42 -28 34.4
Jul 2009 5 55 40 -35 33.5
Jun 2009 8 46 46 -38 30.8

Customers' Inventories*

The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 39 percent in September, the same rate of decline reported in August. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time. This is the sixth consecutive month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, following eight months above 50 percent.

Two industries reported higher customers' inventories during September: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The 12 industries that reported lower customers' inventories during September — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Customers'
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Net

Index
Sep 2009 71 9 60 31 -22 39.0
Aug 2009 75 12 54 34 -22 39.0
Jul 2009 77 15 55 30 -15 42.5
Jun 2009 74 15 57 28 -13 43.5

Prices*

The ISM Prices Index registered 63.5 percent in September, 1.5 percentage points lower than the 65 percent reported in August. This is the third consecutive month that the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While 36 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 9 percent reported paying lower prices, 55 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in August. A Prices Index above 47.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

The 12 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; and Chemical Products. The only industry that reported paying lower prices during September is Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2009 36 55 9 +27 63.5
Aug 2009 38 54 8 +30 65.0
Jul 2009 28 54 18 +10 55.0
Jun 2009 22 56 22 0 50.0

Backlog of Orders*

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 53.5 percent in September, 1 percentage point higher than the 52.5 percent reported in August. Of the 82 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 25 percent reported greater backlogs, 18 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 57 percent reported no change from August.

The nine industries reporting increased order backlogs in September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries that reported decreases in order backlogs during September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Greater
%
Same
%
Less

Net

Index
Sep 2009 82 25 57 18 +7 53.5
Aug 2009 85 28 49 23 +5 52.5
Jul 2009 86 21 58 21 0 50.0
Jun 2009 84 21 53 26 -5 47.5

New Export Orders*

ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 55 percent in September, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 55.5 percent reported in August. This is the third consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index, following nine consecutive months of contraction.

The nine industries reporting growth in new export orders in September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The two industries that reported decreases in new export orders in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products and Primary Metals.

New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2009 75 20 70 10 +10 55.0
Aug 2009 74 24 63 13 +11 55.5
Jul 2009 76 16 69 15 +1 50.5
Jun 2009 75 12 75 13 -1 49.5

Imports*

Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in September as the Imports Index registered 52 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 49.5 percent reported in August. Imports have contracted in 18 of the last 20 months.

The seven industries reporting growth in imports during the month of September — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The four industries that reported decreases in imports in September are: Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.


Imports
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2009 80 13 78 9 +4 52.0
Aug 2009 81 15 69 16 -1 49.5
Jul 2009 83 13 74 13 0 50.0
Jun 2009 81 7 78 15 -8 46.0

* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.


Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased 2 days to 99 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased 1 day to 46 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 1 day to 23 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Sep 2009 30 8 15 16 22 9 99
Aug 2009 38 6 10 13 22 11 101
Jul 2009 32 9 10 18 20 11 102
Jun 2009 29 10 12 15 23 11 106
 

Production
Materials
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Sep 2009 28 37 19 11 3 2 46
Aug 2009 27 40 20 8 2 3 47
Jul 2009 31 42 15 6 4 2 43
Jun 2009 30 39 16 10 2 3 46
 

MRO
Supplies
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Sep 2009 55 28 12 5 0 0 23
Aug 2009 51 36 12 0 0 1 24
Jul 2009 53 35 9 2 1 0 22
Jun 2009 49 38 11 2 0 0 22

Special Questions — September

Survey respondents were asked special questions designed to learn more about expectations regarding the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The questions were structured to determine if respondents believe that their industry and organization will benefit from the program as they understand it.

Of all respondents in September, 30 percent indicate that their industry will benefit. The 12 industries with respondents indicating that they expect to benefit in September — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Paper Products; and Primary Metals.

In September, 27 percent of respondents indicate that their company will benefit from the program. The 12 industries with respondents indicating that their company will benefit — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Paper Products; and Primary Metals.


About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.


Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 41.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 41.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the October 2009 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Monday, November 2, 2009.


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