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2005 U.S. Department Of Commerce Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors

FOR RELEASE: January 25, 2005

CONTACT: Terri Tracey
  ISM, Media Relations
  Tempe, Arizona
  (800) 888-6276, ext. 3071
  ttracey@ism.ws

U.S. Department Of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Indexes

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2005 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2005, and the January 2005 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 3, 2005.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2005).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the indexes for 2001 through 2004 as well as the 2005 projected seasonal factors for Manufacturing. Due to the shorter history for the Non-Manufacturing Report, these indexes have been revised from 1997 through 2004. The 2005 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2006. Projected seasonal factors for 2005 are listed on the next page. Revised indexes for all other indicators are shown on pages 3 through 6, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI and Business Activity Index for Non-Manufacturing on page 7.

Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and
ISM Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Indexes


2005 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

  New
Orders
Production Employment Supplier
Deliveries
Inventories Export
Orders
Imports
January 2005 0.992 0.986 0.972 0.977 1.013 0.993 0.982
February 2005 1.040 1.040 0.985 1.002 1.050 0.975 0.981
March 2005 1.078 1.053 1.023 1.020 1.016 1.028 1.002
April 2005 1.090 1.059 1.023 1.010 1.013 1.022 1.023
May 2005 1.044 1.038 1.065 1.030 1.015 1.020 1.020
June 2005 1.005 1.016 1.073 1.017 1.005 1.041 1.024
July 2005 0.966 0.939 1.006 1.024 0.958 0.992 1.006
August 2005 0.958 0.948 0.970 1.019 1.028 1.003 1.002
September 2005 0.964 0.998 0.970 0.987 0.998 0.985 1.012
October 2005 0.924 0.960 0.955 0.988 0.966 0.977 0.963
November 2005 0.953 0.982 0.972 0.960 0.953 0.979 0.989
December 2005 0.991 0.982 0.986 0.962 0.986 0.986 0.995
               
Weight .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 (Not part of PMI)


To compute the PMI:
  1. Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
  2. Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
  3. Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight, then add all five together.
  4. To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2005 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes
  Business
Activity
New
Orders
Employment Prices
January 2005 0.938 0.967 0.968 0.999
February 2005 1.004 1.006 0.957 1.054
March 2005 1.030 1.006 1.007 1.083
April 2005 1.029 1.055 1.031 1.122
May 2005 1.034 1.021 1.029 1.053
June 2005 1.045 1.051 1.036 1.020
July 2005 1.016 1.018 1.032 0.967
August 2005 0.961 0.972 0.990 0.969
September 2005 1.013 0.980 0.984 0.958
October 2005 0.966 0.963 0.983 0.955
November 2005 1.008 1.000 1.000 0.916
December 2005 0.953 0.961 0.981 0.907


Revised Manufacturing Seasonally-Adjusted Indexes 2001-2004
    PMI New
Orders
Production Employment Supplier
Deliveries
Inventories Export
Orders
Imports
Jan 2001 41.4 38.4 39.2 42.3 49.8 41.8 46.7 49.1
Feb 2001 41.1 39.9 38.6 37.8 50.2 44.2 46.8 47.5
Mar 2001 42.6 41.5 42.6 39.9 47.7 43.7 50.3 48.8
Apr 2001 43.1 45.5 43.1 38.2 47.2 39.7 47.5 47.2
May 2001 41.9 44.9 43.1 35.1 45.4 38.2 45.3 46.9
Jun 2001 43.9 47.8 45.3 35.7 47.1 39.9 45.2 47.0
Jul 2001 44.7 49.2 47.0 37.2 46.8 37.1 48.4 47.2
Aug 2001 48.3 54.3 51.8 41.3 46.7 37.6 52.0 50.0
Sep 2001 47.7 51.3 51.8 41.5 47.5 38.9 46.9 49.7
Oct 2001 40.5 38.9 41.8 35.6 49.5 38.3 44.3 47.6
Nov 2001 45.0 49.1 46.9 36.4 49.1 38.9 50.0 49.5
Dec 2001 46.7 51.4 49.2 39.1 49.3 37.6 47.6 50.2
                   
Jan 2002 49.1 54.7 51.4 41.3 51.3 39.3 50.5 51.3
Feb 2002 53.2 60.6 58.2 44.0 51.4 39.8 51.1 52.4
Mar 2002 54.9 63.7 58.2 46.6 51.9 41.4 50.5 53.9
Apr 2002 54.0 59.2 58.7 46.6 53.1 42.8 51.9 55.5
May 2002 55.2 61.9 59.1 47.4 53.0 44.0 52.8 53.9
Jun 2002 55.8 61.3 61.0 48.3 54.3 43.3 53.8 53.8
Jul 2002 51.4 52.5 56.7 45.0 54.6 42.5 52.4 53.2
Aug 2002 50.9 50.9 55.0 46.6 53.5 45.4 53.1 52.6
Sep 2002 51.7 53.8 53.8 45.7 56.9 43.9 53.5 54.7
Oct 2002 50.1 52.5 51.5 46.2 53.6 41.7 52.7 51.2
Nov 2002 49.6 50.6 52.9 44.8 52.6 43.1 50.7 52.4
Dec 2002 52.5 56.9 53.9 47.1 53.2 45.2 52.0 55.1
                   
Jan 2003 52.8 57.9 54.4 47.2 52.7 44.4 54.9 58.6
Feb 2003 49.9 52.1 53.1 43.4 52.9 43.2 55.9 54.6
Mar 2003 46.4 46.6 47.2 42.3 52.5 42.5 51.3 53.3
Apr 2003 46.1 46.3 48.4 41.8 49.6 42.9 50.9 54.8
May 2003 49.8 53.1 53.0 42.7 50.3 45.9 51.2 52.2
Jun 2003 50.4 54.0 54.0 45.3 49.7 41.7 54.2 55.9
Jul 2003 52.5 57.2 55.0 46.2 51.2 46.2 54.6 54.9
Aug 2003 55.6 61.6 62.0 46.8 53.0 43.1 55.7 55.2
Sep 2003 55.1 62.3 59.2 46.2 53.5 43.3 54.2 61.4
Oct 2003 57.7 65.2 62.8 48.4 54.8 45.3 59.2 59.2
Nov 2003 61.3 70.7 65.6 50.6 57.1 49.8 58.1 61.4
Dec 2003 62.1 68.3 68.9 54.0 59.6 45.9 59.3 57.8
                   
Jan 2004 62.8 69.2 69.0 54.1 61.4 48.0 57.6 59.2
Feb 2004 62.1 67.0 65.0 57.0 62.8 49.0 55.9 59.9
Mar 2004 62.3 65.3 65.8 57.0 66.4 48.5 60.4 57.1
Apr 2004 62.3 65.8 66.5 57.6 66.4 44.9 60.1 58.7
May 2004 62.6 63.9 65.1 60.6 67.6 48.8 59.5 58.8
Jun 2004 61.2 61.8 63.4 58.8 66.8 50.6 56.7 57.5
Jul 2004 61.6 63.8 65.6 57.2 63.9 50.8 56.8 58.8
Aug 2004 59.6 62.2 60.5 56.1 62.9 52.0 54.8 58.3
Sep 2004 59.1 59.9 61.6 57.7 60.2 51.4 53.0 58.2
Oct 2004 57.5 59.3 59.3 55.4 59.5 49.1 56.4 59.2
Nov 2004 57.6 60.7 57.0 57.2 57.8 50.5 55.6 58.8
Dec 2004 57.3 62.6 56.7 53.3 56.1 52.8 59.1 60.8


Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors Continued...



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