2004 U.S. Department Of Commerce Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors

FOR RELEASE: January 26, 2004

CONTACT: Kristen Kioa
  ISM, Media Relations
  Tempe, Arizona
  (800) 888-6276, ext. 3015

U.S. Department Of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Indexes

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2004 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 2, 2004, and the January 2004 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 4, 2004.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2004).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the indexes for 2000 through 2003 as well as the 2004 projected seasonal factors for Manufacturing. Due to the shorter history for the Non-Manufacturing Report, these indexes have been revised from 1997 through 2003. The 2004 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2005. Projected seasonal factors for 2004 are listed on the next page. Revised indexes for all other indicators are shown on pages 3 through 6, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI and Business Activity Index for Non-Manufacturing on page 7.

2004 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

  New
Orders
Production Employment Supplier
Deliveries
Inventories Export
Orders
Imports
January 2004 0.957 0.949 0.993 0.993 0.992 0.991 0.974
February 2004 1.046 1.056 0.994 1.014 1.042 0.993 0.971
March 2004 1.073 1.061 1.026 0.994 1.024 1.000 1.013
April 2004 1.108 1.053 1.020 0.998 1.016 1.009 1.026
May 2004 1.067 1.042 1.042 1.002 1.004 0.998 1.003
June 2004 1.041 1.021 1.055 0.998 0.999 1.041 1.024
July 2004 0.950 0.930 1.003 1.020 0.971 1.005 0.985
August 2004 0.973 0.967 0.978 1.012 1.035 1.015 0.989
September 2004 0.998 0.999 0.964 0.999 1.009 1.014 1.057
October 2004 0.943 0.967 0.968 1.006 0.986 0.972 0.975
November 2004 0.935 0.983 0.963 0.982 0.947 0.997 0.993
December 2004 0.912 0.975 0.996 0.983 0.973 0.966 0.990
               
Weight .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 (Not part of PMI)


To compute the PMI:
  • Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
  • Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
  • Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight, then add all five together.
  • To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2004 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes
  Business
Activity
New
Orders
Employment Prices
January 2004 0.913 0.948 0.974 1.021
February 2004 1.004 1.011 0.968 1.064
March 2004 1.003 1.003 1.011 1.066
April 2004 1.009 1.013 1.028 1.093
May 2004 1.004 1.028 1.013 1.022
June 2004 1.069 1.058 1.028 0.998
July 2004 0.987 0.972 1.040 0.957
August 2004 0.980 0.990 1.000 0.971
September 2004 1.050 1.008 0.980 0.984
October 2004 0.995 0.983 0.976 0.952
November 2004 1.020 1.010 1.000 0.943
December 2004 0.967 0.979 0.983 0.932


Revised Manufacturing Seasonally-Adjusted Indexes 2000-2003
    PMI New
Orders
Production Employment Supplier
Deliveries
Inventories Export
Orders
Imports
Jan 2000 56.7 60.4 57.8 52.8 55.0 52.8 53.4 52.9
Feb 2000 55.8 58.9 59.1 53.6 54.4 44.9 54.2 53.0
Mar 2000 54.9 56.2 59.5 51.2 54.3 47.5 54.8 53.5
Apr 2000 54.7 55.4 58.1 53.2 55.4 46.1 51.5 53.8
May 2000 53.2 51.5 56.4 53.0 55.4 46.9 56.4 54.2
Jun 2000 51.4 50.0 53.4 50.7 54.5 47.0 52.8 55.7
Jul 2000 52.5 52.0 53.7 52.5 53.9 48.5 51.7 50.8
Aug 2000 49.9 50.0 49.7 48.8 53.5 47.1 50.8 52.2
Sep 2000 49.7 48.9 51.5 50.6 49.6 45.9 50.7 48.9
Oct 2000 48.7 48.4 49.3 48.2 51.1 45.9 48.7 52.4
Nov 2000 48.5 49.1 50.1 47.1 50.2 42.8 48.6 53.2
Dec 2000 43.9 42.1 42.9 42.7 52.8 40.4 49.5 51.2
                   
Jan 2001 41.3 38.1 39.4 42.0 49.5 41.6 46.2 49.0
Feb 2001 41.1 40.0 38.3 37.4 50.1 44.8 46.7 47.5
Mar 2001 42.8 42.0 42.5 40.0 48.1 44.0 50.7 48.8
Apr 2001 43.1 45.3 43.2 38.3 47.5 39.7 47.8 46.8
May 2001 42.0 44.8 42.9 35.5 46.0 38.4 46.0 47.3
Jun 2001 43.9 47.5 45.3 36.0 47.5 40.0 45.3 47.6
Jul 2001 44.6 49.1 47.0 37.2 47.0 36.4 48.3 47.8
Aug 2001 48.1 53.4 51.9 41.3 46.8 37.9 51.8 50.5
Sep 2001 47.4 50.8 51.8 41.5 47.3 38.6 46.6 48.7
Oct 2001 40.3 38.7 41.7 35.5 49.1 38.2 44.3 47.2
Nov 2001 45.1 49.6 47.0 36.6 48.5 38.5 49.3 49.4
Dec 2001 47.3 53.6 49.4 38.8 48.8 37.5 47.8 50.0
                   
Jan 2002 49.1 54.7 52.1 40.7 50.8 39.5 50.2 51.3
Feb 2002 52.9 60.4 57.5 43.4 51.1 40.4 50.5 52.5
Mar 2002 55.3 64.4 58.1 46.8 52.6 41.5 51.3 53.8
Apr 2002 54.1 58.8 59.1 46.8 53.6 42.7 52.4 55.1
May 2002 55.3 61.6 58.8 48.1 53.9 44.4 53.6 54.7
Jun 2002 55.7 60.5 60.9 48.8 54.9 43.6 53.9 54.4
Jul 2002 51.4 52.6 56.8 45.1 54.8 41.6 52.2 53.9
Aug 2002 50.5 49.9 54.6 46.5 53.7 45.5 52.7 53.3
Sep 2002 51.4 52.9 53.9 45.9 56.5 43.7 52.9 53.2
Oct 2002 49.7 52.2 51.2 45.9 53.1 41.3 52.8 50.6
Nov 2002 49.6 51.1 53.0 45.0 51.8 42.7 50.0 52.1
Dec 2002 53.3 60.0 54.2 46.7 52.4 45.3 52.3 55.1
                   
Jan 2003 53.0 58.6 55.5 46.2 52.0 44.9 54.7 58.6
Feb 2003 49.4 51.9 52.3 42.8 52.4 43.7 55.0 54.8
Mar 2003 46.6 47.1 47.0 42.4 53.4 42.5 52.4 53.1
Apr 2003 46.2 45.9 48.8 42.1 50.1 42.7 51.5 54.6
May 2003 50.0 52.6 52.7 43.6 51.4 46.4 52.1 53.1
Jun 2003 50.4 52.9 53.9 46.0 50.6 42.1 54.4 56.2
Jul 2003 52.6 57.6 55.3 46.2 51.4 45.3 54.2 55.9
Aug 2003 55.0 60.4 61.2 46.6 53.3 43.0 55.2 56.0
Sep 2003 54.7 60.9 59.3 46.5 53.1 43.2 53.1 59.2
Oct 2003 57.1 64.6 62.3 48.0 54.1 44.4 59.3 58.4
Nov 2003 61.3 71.4 65.6 50.8 56.0 49.6 57.1 61.0
Dec 2003 63.4 73.1 69.2 53.5 58.6 46.3 60.0 58.1


Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally-Adjusted Indexes
1997-2003
    Business
Activity
New
Orders
Employment Prices
Jul 1997 58.9 58.5 53.8 51.0
Aug 1997 63.0 60.6 53.9 53.3
Sep 1997 58.6 59.1 53.3 52.4
Oct 1997 63.2 60.5 51.0 52.8
Nov 1997 60.4 60.3 56.5 54.6
Dec 1997 56.8 58.6 55.0 55.0
           
Jan 1998 61.5 57.3 54.9 52.3
Feb 1998 58.9 58.8 54.5 52.1
Mar 1998 56.7 56.3 54.4 48.5
Apr 1998 58.5 57.4 51.8 46.8
May 1998 60.8 60.0 52.9 46.9
Jun 1998 59.9 55.3 52.5 45.5
Jul 1998 59.0 58.0 51.9 47.1
Aug 1998 52.5 55.6 52.3 47.9
Sep 1998 57.2 55.9 53.7 45.6
Oct 1998 54.5 54.4 53.1 49.1
Nov 1998 53.4 53.0 52.4 47.6
Dec 1998 54.3 53.4 50.9 48.4
           
Jan 1999 58.4 57.5 51.3 46.8
Feb 1999 57.3 56.3 51.9 45.8
Mar 1999 59.7 59.0 51.2 49.5
Apr 1999 59.6 58.5 52.2 51.6
May 1999 57.4 56.3 53.0 52.5
Jun 1999 59.0 59.5 55.4 53.2
Jul 1999 61.2 58.1 53.4 57.8
Aug 1999 60.3 59.9 52.3 59.0
Sep 1999 59.2 60.0 51.4 63.4
Oct 1999 61.1 61.6 51.7 58.8
Nov 1999 55.4 55.6 50.5 61.3
Dec 1999 60.2 61.1 53.0 60.3
           
Jan 2000 57.1 60.8 52.4 61.1
Feb 2000 58.2 58.7 52.4 66.7
Mar 2000 61.5 62.3 55.1 69.6
Apr 2000 61.2 61.3 54.5 65.3
May 2000 59.4 60.5 53.6 63.4
Jun 2000 61.2 59.3 54.5 65.0
Jul 2000 57.2 60.3 50.6 62.4
Aug 2000 61.0 60.0 54.2 59.4
Sep 2000 60.0 60.3 53.4 61.5
Oct 2000 58.9 58.6 54.5 63.7
Nov 2000 57.8 56.2 54.6 61.2
Dec 2000 56.6 54.7 52.3 63.0
           
Jan 2001 51.9 50.8 51.8 61.4
Feb 2001 51.6 51.2 50.2 58.1
Mar 2001 51.5 52.8 49.6 56.7
Apr 2001 48.7 47.3 46.6 54.3
May 2001 47.9 49.4 46.8 57.7
Jun 2001 52.1 52.4 45.9 54.8
Jul 2001 48.9 48.4 46.6 50.2
Aug 2001 46.8 46.5 45.6 49.0
Sep 2001 49.7 50.6 46.1 49.7
Oct 2001 40.5 40.7 44.0 43.5
Nov 2001 48.0 46.0 44.5 41.4
Dec 2001 49.5 49.5 44.5 41.8
           
Jan 2002 49.3 48.4 44.4 48.3
Feb 2002 57.4 56.1 43.1 47.5
Mar 2002 59.4 56.5 45.8 50.0
Apr 2002 57.3 58.8 48.1 54.2
May 2002 60.7 57.4 49.4 53.9
Jun 2002 56.4 56.8 44.6 53.5
Jul 2002 53.2 52.1 46.3 61.1
Aug 2002 50.9 51.5 47.1 55.0
Sep 2002 54.3 54.2 46.5 53.1
Oct 2002 52.9 51.3 46.6 56.9
Nov 2002 55.2 55.8 46.0 57.9
Dec 2002 53.7 53.4 46.9 55.7

Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors Continued...