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U.S. Department Of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Indexes

FOR RELEASE: February 3, 2003

CONTACT: Kristen Kioa
  ISM Media Relations
  Tempe, Arizona
  480/752-6276 ext. 3015

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™(ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2003 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 3, 2003, and the January 2003 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 5, 2003. This release updates the January 30, 2003 press release, and reflects minor changes in Manufacturing seasonally-adjusted indexes for the years 2000 through 2002 and in Non-Manufacturing seasonally-adjusted indexes for the years 1997 through 2002.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2003).

For the first time, the X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the indexes for 1997 through 2002 as well as the 2003 projected seasonal factors. The 2003 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2004. Projected seasonal factors for 2003 follow, as well as revised indexes for all other indicators. Page 9 includes charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI (previously the Purchasing Managers' Index for Manufacturing) and Business Activity Index (for Non-Manufacturing).

As part of the switch to X12-ARIMA, all series were reviewed to determine if additional series could be adjusted and if formerly adjusted series should continue to be adjusted. The analysis resulted in adding seasonal adjustments to some series and dropping it from others. The Manufacturing Prices and Non-Manufacturing Imports series will no longer be seasonally adjusted, while the Non-Manufacturing Prices series will be seasonally adjusted.


U.S. Department Of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Indexes:

Re-Release with Minor Changes

2003 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

  New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries Inventories Export Orders Imports
January 2003 0.938 0.932 0.956 0.979 0.980 0.972 0.966
February 2003 1.032 0.992 0.992 0.994 1.039 0.982 0.956
March 2003 1.094 1.079 1.033 0.986 1.029 1.009 1.029
April 2003 1.128 1.096 1.038 1.001 1.019 1.018 1.027
May 2003 1.079 1.067 1.058 1.003 1.009 1.024 1.025
June 2003 1.054 1.040 1.049 1.010 1.016 1.039 1.019
July 2003 0.972 0.966 1.008 1.027 0.959 1.013 0.983
August 2003 0.990 0.958 0.992 1.014 1.048 1.012 1.008
September 2003 1.010 1.038 0.984 1.011 1.019 1.020 1.029
October 2003 0.948 0.967 0.975 1.011 0.988 0.964 0.994
November 2003 0.902 0.945 0.961 0.982 0.940 0.985 0.970
December 2003 0.851 0.918 0.955 0.978 0.952 0.961 0.995
               
Weight .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 (Not part of PMI)

NOTE: The Manufacturing Prices series is no longer seasonally adjusted.

To compute the PMI:
  1. Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
  2. Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
  3. Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight, then add all five together.
  4. To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

1997 — 1999 PMI

  PMI 1997 PMI 1998 PMI 1999
  Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
January 53.6 53.8 53.7 53.8 50.4 50.6
February 53.2 53.1 53.1 52.9 51.9 51.7
March 54.1 53.8 53.3 52.9 53.0 52.4
April 53.7 53.7 52.4 52.2 52.6 52.3
May 56.0 56.1 50.9 50.9 54.6 54.3
June 55.4 54.9 49.3 48.9 56.5 55.8
July 57.7 57.7 49.3 49.2 53.6 53.6
August 56.2 56.3 49.2 49.3 54.7 54.8
September 53.9 53.9 48.3 48.7 56.4 57.0
October 56.4 56.4 48.5 48.7 56.6 57.2
November 55.4 55.7 47.8 48.2 57.4 58.1
December 54.4 54.5 46.5 46.8 57.5 57.8

2000 — 2002 PMI

  PMI 2000 PMI 2001 PMI 2002
  Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
January 56.8 57.0 41.7 41.7 49.9 49.8
February 56.7 56.2 42.0 41.5 54.7 53.8
March 55.3 54.6 43.2 42.5 55.6 54.7
April 54.8 54.4 43.2 42.8 53.9 53.3
May 53.4 52.9 42.3 41.7 55.7 54.7
June 51.8 51.1 44.3 43.5 56.2 55.2
July 51.9 52.0 43.9 44.1 50.5 50.7
August 49.9 49.9 47.9 47.8 50.5 50.3
September 48.8 49.6 46.2 47.2 49.5 50.7
October 48.0 48.8 39.5 40.4 48.5 49.7
November 48.1 48.9 44.7 45.7 49.2 50.5
December 44.2 44.6 48.1 48.5 54.7 55.2

NOTE: The Non-Manufacturing Prices series is now seasonally adjusted, and the Imports series is no longer seasonally adjusted.

Revised Manufacturing Seasonally-Adjusted Indexes 1997-2002

    New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries
    Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
Jan 1997 56.8 57.0 57 59.8 49.8 49.8 49.7 49.7
Feb 1997 57.8 57.6 55 58.9 45.9 45.9 52.2 52.1
Mar 1997 58.7 58.6 55.2 55 50.7 50.8 53.1 53.1
Apr 1997 56.8 56.6 55.8 56.8 51.8 51.8 53.4 53.4
May 1997 62.2 62.3 51.5 56.7 50.6 50.7 55 55
Jun 1997 60 59.4 50.6 56.5 51.8 51.3 54.8 54.6
Jul 1997 61.3 61.3 52 64.5 51.9 51.7 54.8 54.7
Aug 1997 60.2 60.3 50.7 61.5 51.1 51.3 55.2 55.2
Sep 1997 55.2 55.4 48.5 56.6 51.3 51.2 54.8 54.8
Oct 1997 60.8 60.9 47.6 59.4 52.8 52.8 54.8 54.9
Nov 1997 57.1 57.4 47.6 60.1 53.6 53.7 55 55.2
Dec 1997 57 57.2 49.7 56.7 52 52.1 53.8 53.9
                   
Jan 1998 57 57.1 55.2 55.6 51.2 51.1 53 53
Feb 1998 55 54.6 54.7 54.6 51.8 51.7 52.8 52.8
Mar 1998 55.2 54.9 55.5 54.5 51.6 51.4 53 53
Apr 1998 55.8 55.3 53.3 53.3 49.2 49 52.6 52.4
May 1998 51.5 51.5 53.1 53.2 49.2 49.3 51.6 51.5
Jun 1998 50.6 50.2 51.3 50.6 47.4 47 51 50.9
Jul 1998 52 51.8 50.9 50.8 45.4 45.1 50.2 50.2
Aug 1998 50.7 50.9 50.6 50.7 46.5 46.7 50.3 50.3
Sep 1998 48.5 49.4 50.7 51.2 45.7 45.7 50.8 50.8
Oct 1998 47.6 48.0 52 52.4 45.1 45.2 49.7 49.8
Nov 1998 47.6 48.3 50.1 50.4 45 45.3 50.3 50.4
Dec 1998 49.7 49.7 47.5 47.7 41.2 41.9 48.2 48.5

    New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries
    Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
Jan 1999 52 52.4 55 55.6 45.6 45.5 51.1 51
Feb 1999 55.8 55.0 56.1 56 46 45.8 50.8 50.8
Mar 1999 56.7 55.9 56.5 55.7 48 47.6 52.5 52.3
Apr 1999 54.4 54.0 57.4 57.2 49.1 48.8 49.6 49.5
May 1999 58.4 57.8 58.6 58.5 51.1 51.1 52.2 52.1
Jun 1999 60.1 59.4 62.7 61.6 51.8 51.3 52.8 52.6
Jul 1999 54.4 54.6 58.3 58.1 50.4 50.4 54.1 54
Aug 1999 57.3 57.5 58.3 58.3 53 53.1 51.3 51.4
Sep 1999 62 63.5 59.2 59.9 51.1 51.3 55.7 55.8
Oct 1999 60.5 61.3 58.7 59.7 52.7 53 55.9 56.2
Nov 1999 61.6 63.1 60 60.2 52.6 53.1 56.5 56.8
Dec 1999 60.5 60.3 60.1 60.6 54.8 55.7 56.1 56.7
                   
Jan 2000 60.5 61.1 57.5 58.2 53.2 52.8 55.3 55
Feb 2000 60.1 58.7 61.2 60.8 53.8 53.5 54.9 54.7
Mar 2000 57 55.6 59.6 59.1 51.9 51.2 54.6 54.3
Apr 2000 55.6 55.2 57.8 57.3 53.5 53 55.7 55.4
May 2000 52.3 51.3 56.2 55.8 52.7 52.8 55.3 55.2
Jun 2000 50.4 49.7 53.7 52.5 51.5 50.9 54.7 54.4
Jul 2000 50.6 51.3 53 52.7 52.5 52.6 54 53.8
Aug 2000 50 50.2 49.9 49.6 48.4 48.5 53.4 53.5
Sep 2000 47.8 49.3 49.9 50.9 50 50.4 49.3 49.3
Oct 2000 47.7 48.7 48.3 49.7 47.5 48 50.8 51.1
Nov 2000 47.9 49.6 51.1 51.3 46.2 46.9 49.7 50.3
Dec 2000 42.9 42.7 43.3 43.8 42.8 43.7 52.1 52.8
                   
Jan 2001 38.2 38.6 39.2 39.7 43.1 42.4 50.2 49.7
Feb 2001 41.3 40.0 40.3 39.9 37.6 37.3 50.8 50.6
Mar 2001 42.7 41.3 42.5 42.2 40.6 39.8 48.5 48.2
Apr 2001 45.5 45.1 42.8 42.3 38.5 38.1 47.7 47.4
May 2001 45.7 44.4 42.9 42.3 35.2 35.3 45.9 45.8
Jun 2001 47.9 47.1 45.6 44.5 36.6 36.2 47.6 47.2
Jul 2001 47.3 48.5 46.2 45.8 37.1 37.2 47.1 46.8
Aug 2001 53.1 53.2 52.3 51.8 40.8 40.9 46.6 46.8
Sep 2001 49 51.0 49.7 50.9 40.8 41.2 46.8 46.9
Oct 2001 38 38.9 40.4 42 34.9 35.3 48.7 49.1
Nov 2001 48.4 50.5 48.2 48.4 35.7 36.6 47.8 48.6
Dec 2001 55.5 55.3 50.3 51.1 39.2 39.9 48 48.9
                   
Jan 2002 55.3 55.5 52 52.6 42.6 41.5 51.7 51.1
Feb 2002 62.8 60.6 61.2 60.5 43.8 43.4 52.3 51.9
Mar 2002 65.3 63.1 57.8 57.5 47.5 46.6 53.1 52.7
Apr 2002 59 58.3 58 57.2 46.7 46.2 53.7 53.4
May 2002 63.1 60.9 58.5 57.7 47.3 47.6 53.9 53.8
Jun 2002 60.8 59.8 61.4 59.7 49.7 49.1 55.2 54.5
Jul 2002 50.4 51.8 55.7 55 45 45.1 54.9 54.5
Aug 2002 49.7 49.6 55.6 54.9 45.8 45.9 53.4 53.7
Sep 2002 50.2 52.8 50.9 52.5 44.9 45.3 55.7 55.8
Oct 2002 50.9 52.2 49.3 51.5 45 45.6 52.6 53
Nov 2002 49.9 52.4 54.6 54.9 43.8 45.1 50.8 51.8
Dec 2002 63.3 62.9 55.6 56.6 47.4 48.2 51.4 52.6

Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors Continued...





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