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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAKES ANNUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SEASONAL FACTORS FOR PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX AND DIFFUSION INDEXES

FOR RELEASE: January 15, 2001

CONTACT: Kristen Kioa
  NAPM Media Relations
  Tempe, AZ
  480/752-6276 ext. 3015

(Tempe, Arizona) The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as the diffusion indexes for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Prices, New Export Orders, and Imports within the monthly National Association of Purchasing Management's Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes effective with the January 2001 NAPM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be issued on February 1, 2001.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to nonmovable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2001). The U.S. Department of Commerce then takes the actual experience for that year and adjusts the factors, which also affects the indexes for the previous years: 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000.

The previous and current revisions to the indexes for 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000 are attached, as well as the 2001 projected seasonal factors. The 2001 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2002. Previously published and revised Purchasing Managers' Indexes, together with projected seasonal factors for 2001 are listed on the next page. Indexes for all other indicators both previously published and revised, are shown on pages 3 and 4.


2001 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for NAPM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

  New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries Inventories Prices Export Orders Imports
January 2001 0.952 0.975 0.931 0.965 0.972 0.929 0.988 0.961
February 2001 1.006 0.996 0.995 0.975 1.017 0.956 0.966 0.978
March 2001 1.063 1.063 1.016 0.983 1.017 0.982 1.007 1.018
April 2001 1.101 1.073 1.038 1.002 1.024 1.013 1.026 1.017
May 2001 1.045 1.054 1.071 1.007 0.994 1.029 1.009 1.041
June 2001 1.019 0.996 1.048 0.990 0.981 1.028 1.034 1.011
July 2001 1.025 0.949 1.009 1.013 0.993 1.021 1.006 0.993
August 2001 0.989 0.948 0.992 1.022 1.035 1.062 1.011 1.017
September 2001 1.034 1.034 0.982 1.021 1.002 1.046 1.046 1.013
October 2001 0.965 1.003 0.984 1.007 1.032 1.045 0.944 1.004
November 2001 0.942 0.976 0.994 1.015 0.963 0.964 1.004 0.974
December 2001 0.856 0.929 0.939 0.999 0.967 0.921 0.959 0.972
                 
Weight .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 (Not part of Purchasing Managers' index)

To compute the Purchasing Managers' Index

  1. Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
  2. Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
  3. Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight and sum. To compute other indexes, follow #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

  1997 1998 1999 2000
  Previous Revision Previous Revision Previous Revision Previous Revision
January 53.6 53.6 53.4 53.5 49.9 49.9 56.3 56.2
February 53.3 53.2 53.2 53.0 52.1 51.7 56.9 56.4
March 54.1 54.1 53.4 53.3 53.3 52.9 55.8 55.3
April 53.7 53.7 52.3 52.3 52.7 52.5 54.9 54.7
May 56.0 56.0 50.9 50.8 54.4 54.4 53.2 53.1
June 55.2 55.4 49.2 49.4 56.3 56.7 51.8 52.1
July 57.8 57.7 49.4 49.2 53.6 53.4 51.8 51.7
August 56.1 56.2 49.1 49.2 54.4 54.7 49.5 49.9
September 54.0 53.9 48.8 48.7 57.3 57.1 49.9 49.6
October 56.4 56.4 48.6 48.7 56.9 56.9 48.3 48.3
November 55.4 55.4 47.7 47.7 57.1 57.2 47.7 47.9
December 54.3 54.4 46.3 46.7 56.8 57.6 43.7 44.3

Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000

  New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries
  Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision
January 1997 56.8 56.8 59.3 59.2 49.7 49.8 49.6 49.7
February 1997 58.0 57.8 59.2 58.9 45.8 45.9 52.1 52.2
March 1997 58.7 58.7 56.4 56.0 50.6 50.7 53.0 53.1
April 1997 56.8 56.8 56.7 56.5 51.8 51.8 53.4 53.4
May 1997 61.8 62.2 56.7 56.5 51.2 50.6 54.9 55.0
June 1997 59.7 60.0 57.0 57.3 51.7 51.8 54.7 54.8
July 1997 61.4 61.3 64.6 64.5 52.1 51.9 54.7 54.8
August 1997 60.1 60.2 61.1 61.4 51.1 51.1 55.2 55.2
September 1997 55.1 55.2 56.8 56.7 51.4 51.3 54.8 54.8
October 1997 60.8 60.8 59.1 59.4 52.8 52.8 54.9 54.8
November 1997 57.2 57.1 59.4 59.6 53.7 53.6 55.1 55.0
December 1997 57.3 57.0 56.1 56.7 51.3 52.0 54.1 53.8
                 
January 1998 56.8 56.7 54.5 54.5 51.0 51.2 52.9 53.1
February 1998 55.2 54.7 54.9 54.4 51.6 51.6 52.8 53.0
March 1998 55.2 55.1 56.3 55.5 51.2 51.5 52.7 53.0
April 1998 55.9 55.8 53.4 53.2 49.1 49.0 52.5 52.4
May 1998 50.9 51.5 53.2 53.0 50.0 49.1 51.5 51.6
June 1998 50.4 50.8 51.0 51.4 47.1 47.3 51.1 51.1
July 1998 51.7 51.5 51.2 51.0 45.5 45.3 50.3 50.3
August 1998 50.7 50.8 50.2 50.7 46.3 46.4 50.2 50.2
September 1998 49.1 49.2 51.6 51.5 46.1 45.8 50.8 50.7
October 1998 47.8 47.9 52.0 52.4 45.3 45.2 49.9 49.8
November 1998 47.8 47.7 49.5 49.8 45.1 45.1 50.2 50.1
December 1998 49.5 49.5 46.9 47.7 41.1 42.0 48.6 48.2
                 
January 1999 51.8 51.6 53.7 53.7 45.2 45.5 51.0 51.2
February 1999 56.1 55.2 56.3 55.6 45.6 45.7 50.9 51.1
March 1999 56.7 56.4 58.0 56.7 47.6 47.9 52.1 52.4
April 1999 54.9 54.6 57.7 57.3 48.9 48.8 49.5 49.5
May 1999 57.3 58.2 58.7 58.4 52.2 50.9 52.0 52.1
June 1999 59.9 60.5 62.5 63.1 51.3 51.6 53.1 53.1
July 1999 53.9 53.8 58.7 58.5 50.7 50.3 54.2 54.3
August 1999 57.2 57.4 57.4 58.5 52.8 52.9 51.2 51.2
September 1999 63.2 63.2 61.0 60.4 51.8 51.4 55.7 55.5
October 1999 60.8 61.1 58.8 59.4 53.0 52.9 56.4 56.1
November 1999 61.9 61.8 58.6 59.1 52.6 52.7 56.1 56.1
December 1999 59.6 60.1 59.0 60.4 54.6 56.2 56.7 56.1
                 
January 2000 60.4 59.9 55.9 55.9 52.7 53.1 55.2 55.4
February 2000 60.5 59.3 61.3 60.4 53.2 53.3 55.0 55.3
March 2000 56.9 56.6 61.8 60.0 51.5 51.7 54.1 54.4
April 2000 56.3 55.9 58.2 57.8 53.2 53.0 55.6 55.4
May 2000 51.1 52.1 56.3 56.0 54.1 52.5 55.0 55.1
June 2000 50.6 51.1 53.6 54.2 50.8 51.0 55.1 55.1
July 2000 49.9 49.8 53.4 53.2 52.7 52.5 54.2 54.3
August 2000 49.7 50.0 48.7 49.9 48.2 48.4 53.1 53.3
September 2000 49.1 48.9 52.1 51.4 50.9 50.4 49.3 49.0
October 2000 48.0 48.2 48.4 48.9 47.9 47.8 51.4 51.1
November 2000 48.4 48.3 49.6 50.1 46.0 46.2 49.2 49.3
December 2000 42.0 42.5 42.4 43.5 42.8 44.1 52.7 52.1

Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000

  Inventories Prices Export Orders Imports
  Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision
January 1997 43.3 43.2 53.2 53.3 55.7 56.0 52.6 52.7
February 1997 41.1 41.3 56.0 56.4 54.4 54.2 51.7 52.2
March 1997 43.5 43.5 51.3 51.1 56.7 56.6 49.0 48.8
April 1997 41.1 41.4 51.2 50.3 55.1 55.4 52.5 52.4
May 1997 48.0 48.1 48.4 48.5 54.6 54.6 53.1 52.9
June 1997 45.2 45.2 48.7 48.9 53.9 53.9 54.7 54.6
July 1997 46.1 45.9 51.9 52.0 55.7 55.8 54.6 54.7
August 1997 43.1 43.0 52.0 52.1 55.0 55.0 53.9 53.7
September 1997 47.2 47.2 53.5 53.0 49.8 49.9 52.4 52.3
October 1997 45.4 45.0 53.4 53.6 53.1 53.2 51.7 51.6
November 1997 43.8 43.8 51.5 52.1 53.7 53.4 53.6 53.6
December 1997 46.7 46.8 51.9 52.2 51.0 50.9 56.2 56.5
                 
January 1998 46.2 46.2 47.2 47.3 45.6 46.0 54.4 54.7
February 1998 46.5 46.9 46.5 46.9 48.5 48.2 51.3 52.1
March 1998 46.4 46.2 44.6 44.2 47.4 47.1 52.9 52.5
April 1998 45.3 45.8 42.0 40.7 48.6 48.9 54.8 54.4
May 1998 45.8 45.9 41.0 41.1 46.9 46.9 52.9 52.5
June 1998 42.1 42.2 38.7 39.1 46.5 46.3 52.2 52.0
July 1998 44.1 43.9 38.0 37.9 45.5 45.5 50.7 50.8
August 1998 45.1 44.8 37.2 37.3 43.9 44.0 51.3 51.1
September 1998 43.4 43.4 33.8 33.5 44.3 44.3 52.1 52.1
October 1998 47.4 46.9 34.2 34.3 43.3 43.6 51.2 51.2
November 1998 44.3 44.3 34.0 34.5 43.7 43.6 50.4 50.4
December 1998 42.2 42.5 32.2 32.6 46.0 45.8 50.7 51.1
                 
January 1999 42.6 42.6 33.8 34.1 49.1 49.7 49.8 50.3
February 1999 44.2 44.7 36.2 36.6 53.9 53.4 52.5 53.5
March 1999 44.4 44.1 43.0 42.5 50.8 50.3 53.9 53.3
April 1999 45.7 46.3 49.9 47.8 50.8 51.3 52.7 52.0
May 1999 43.2 43.3 51.2 51.2 51.8 51.7 53.8 53.1
June 1999 44.8 44.9 53.1 53.8 52.7 52.4 52.6 52.4
July 1999 44.8 44.4 54.6 54.5 51.0 51.1 53.2 53.6
August 1999 46.8 46.1 59.1 59.4 54.1 54.3 53.9 53.6
September 1999 43.9 44.0 65.4 64.9 55.7 55.6 55.0 55.0
October 1999 48.5 47.6 67.6 67.7 53.9 54.6 54.3 54.2
November 1999 49.5 49.5 66.6 67.9 55.7 55.7 52.1 52.1
December 1999 47.8 48.6 68.3 69.4 55.1 54.7 52.2 52.9
                 
January 2000 53.4 53.4 72.6 73.5 52.6 53.2 51.9 52.5
February 2000 45.2 45.7 74.1 74.8 55.6 54.9 50.6 51.6
March 2000 48.4 47.8 79.8 78.5 55.3 54.7 54.9 54.1
April 2000 45.2 45.9 76.0 72.3 50.7 51.2 55.1 54.2
May 2000 47.1 47.3 65.8 65.7 56.3 56.1 54.7 53.9
June 2000 47.4 47.8 61.2 62.2 53.2 52.8 56.0 55.9
July 2000 48.4 47.8 61.9 61.8 51.5 51.7 49.8 50.3
August 2000 47.8 47.0 56.2 56.6 50.7 50.9 51.9 51.6
September 2000 45.9 46.3 58.1 57.8 50.3 50.2 50.5 50.4
October 2000 45.4 44.3 56.5 56.5 48.3 49.1 51.8 51.8
November 2000 42.2 42.1 56.6 57.5 48.7 48.8 53.2 53.3
December 2000 39.8 40.7 61.0 62.2 49.9 49.5 51.2 51.9

The National Association of Purchasing Management is a not-for-profit association that provides national and international leadership in purchasing and supply management research and education. The association exists to educate, develop, and advance the purchasing and supply management profession. NAPM provides members and nonmembers alike with opportunities to expand their professional knowledge and skills. NAPM is comprised of 180 affiliates with more than 46,000 members throughout the United States.



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