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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAKES ANNUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SEASONAL FACTORS FOR PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX AND DIFFUSION INDICES FOR THE MANUFACTURING NAPM REPORT ON BUSINESS®

FOR RELEASE: January 10, 2000

Contact: Zenobia Daruwalla
  NAPM, Media Relations
  Tempe, Arizona
  800/888-6276, Ext. 3015

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as the diffusion indices for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Prices, New Export Orders, and Imports within the monthly Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indices will note that these changes are effective with the January 2000 Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2000.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to nonmovable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indices a year ahead (2000). The Department of Commerce then takes the actual experience for that year and adjusts the factors, which also impacts the indices for the previous years: 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999.

The previous and current revisions to the indices for 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999 are attached, as well as the 2000 projected seasonal factors. The 2000 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2001. Previously published and revised Purchasing Managers' Indexes, together with projected seasonal factors for 2000, are listed on the next page. Indices for all other indicators, both previously published and revised, are shown on pages 3 and 4.

2000 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for NAPM Indices

(Prepared by George McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

  New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries Inventories Prices Export Orders Imports
January 2000 0.944 0.975 0.939 0.970 0.974 0.943 0.998 0.973
February 2000 0.983 0.978 0.996 0.982 1.028 0.965 0.953 0.999
March 2000 1.054 1.028 1.020 0.989 1.003 0.965 0.995 1.002
April 2000 1.093 1.065 1.033 0.998 1.040 0.961 1.035 0.999
May 2000 1.066 1.048 1.036 1.010 0.997 1.026 1.003 1.024
June 2000 1.028 1.008 1.053 0.990 0.992 1.045 1.024 1.009
July 2000 1.022 0.945 1.005 1.014 0.982 1.017 1.009 1.004
August 2000 0.996 0.976 0.995 1.027 1.014 1.067 1.016 1.011
September 2000 1.028 1.017 0.973 1.014 1.014 1.041 1.043 1.010
October 2000 0.969 1.013 0.981 1.002 1.003 1.045 0.962 1.003
November 2000 0.941 0.988 0.999 1.016 0.960 0.981 1.006 0.978
December 2000 0.869 0.955 0.970 0.987 0.992 0.942 0.952 0.986
                 
Weight .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 (Not part of Purchasing Managers' Index)

To compute the Purchasing Managers' Index

  1. Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one-half of the percent same or unchanged.
  2. Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
  3. Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight and sum. To compute other indexes, follow #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

  1996 1997 1998 1999
  Previous Revision Previous Revision Previous Revision Previous Revision
January 45.4 45.5 53.3 53.6 53.0 53.4 49.5 49.9
February 46.0 45.9 53.4 53.3 53.4 53.2 52.4 52.1
March 47.1 46.9 54.7 54.1 54.2 53.4 54.3 53.3
April 49.4 49.3 53.9 53.7 52.5 52.3 52.8 52.7
May 49.4 49.1 56.5 56.0 51.4 50.9 55.2 54.4
June 53.8 53.6 55.7 55.2 49.7 49.2 57.0 56.3
July 49.7 49.7 57.7 57.8 49.2 49.4 53.4 53.6
August 51.6 51.6 56.0 56.1 48.9 49.1 54.2 54.4
September 51.3 51.1 54.3 54.0 49.1 48.8 57.8 57.3
October 50.3 50.5 55.9 56.4 48.4 48.6 56.6 56.9
November 52.6 53.0 54.7 55.4 47.0 47.7 56.2 57.1
December 54.5 55.2 53.4 54.3 45.3 46.3 55.5 56.8

Seasonally Adjusted Indices 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999

  New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries
  Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision
January 1996 43.9 44.1 45.5 45.6 45.1 45.3 47.8 47.8
February 1996 46.3 46.1 45.8 45.7 44.4 44.6 49.5 49.5
March 1996 49.4 49.1 47.7 47.3 44.4 44.4 49.7 49.6
April 1996 52.4 52.3 51.7 51.6 44.8 44.7 49.4 49.4
May 1996 52.4 51.7 53.1 53.0 45.1 44.7 49.9 49.9
June 1996 60.0 59.4 55.8 55.5 48.4 48.2 52.7 52.8
July 1996 52.2 51.9 52.2 52.4 46.4 46.7 50.8 50.8
August 1996 54.4 54.6 54.9 55.1 47.5 47.4 51.9 51.9
September 1996 55.1 54.6 53.8 53.5 47.1 47.2 50.0 50.0
October 1996 52.2 52.9 55.0 55.4 46.0 46.0 50.9 50.9
November 1996 56.2 56.9 57.4 58.1 47.4 47.6 51.1 51.2
December 1996 59.6 61.7 58.9 58.9 48.4 48.6 52.1 52.0
                 
January 1997 56.4 56.8 58.9 59.3 49.5 49.7 49.6 49.6
February 1997 58.5 58.0 59.3 59.2 45.5 45.8 52.0 52.1
March 1997 59.5 58.7 57.3 56.4 50.7 50.6 53.2 53.0
April 1997 56.9 56.8 56.8 56.7 52.1 51.8 53.4 53.4
May 1997 63.1 61.8 56.9 56.7 52.0 51.2 54.8 54.9
June 1997 60.9 59.7 57.4 57.0 52.0 51.7 54.7 54.7
July 1997 61.7 61.4 64.3 64.6 51.4 52.1 54.7 54.7
August 1997 59.8 60.1 60.7 61.1 51.5 51.1 55.2 55.2
September 1997 55.9 55.1 57.2 56.8 51.3 51.4 55.0 54.8
October 1997 59.6 60.8 58.4 59.1 52.7 52.8 55.0 54.9
November 1997 56.0 57.2 58.4 59.4 53.2 53.7 55.0 55.1
December 1997 54.4 57.3 56.1 56.1 51.1 51.3 54.3 54.1
                 
January 1998 56.3 56.8 54.0 54.5 50.6 51.0 52.9 52.9
February 1998 56.1 55.2 55.3 54.9 50.9 51.6 52.5 52.8
March 1998 56.3 55.2 57.5 56.3 51.6 51.2 53.1 52.7
April 1998 55.8 55.9 53.4 53.4 49.5 49.1 52.4 52.5
May 1998 52.2 50.9 53.5 53.2 51.0 50.0 51.3 51.5
June 1998 51.7 50.4 51.5 51.0 47.6 47.1 51.1 51.1
July 1998 52.0 51.7 50.8 51.2 44.7 45.5 50.3 50.3
August 1998 50.2 50.7 49.7 50.2 46.8 46.3 50.2 50.2
September 1998 50.0 49.1 52.2 51.6 45.8 46.1 51.0 50.8
October 1998 46.8 47.8 51.5 52.0 45.2 45.3 50.1 49.9
November 1998 46.5 47.8 48.5 49.5 44.7 45.1 50.0 50.2
December 1998 46.4 49.5 46.8 46.9 40.9 41.1 48.7 48.6
                 
January 1999 51.3 51.8 53.1 53.7 44.8 45.2 50.9 51.0
February 1999 57.2 56.1 56.9 56.3 45.0 45.6 50.6 50.9
March 1999 58.2 56.7 59.6 58.0 48.0 47.6 52.5 52.1
April 1999 54.8 54.9 57.6 57.7 49.5 48.9 49.4 49.5
May 1999 58.9 57.3 59.2 58.7 53.5 52.2 51.9 52.0
June 1999 61.7 59.9 63.0 62.5 51.9 51.3 53.1 53.1
July 1999 54.4 53.9 58.2 58.7 49.6 50.7 54.2 54.2
August 1999 56.6 57.2 56.7 57.4 53.4 52.8 51.1 51.2
September 1999 64.4 63.2 61.7 61.0 51.5 51.8 55.9 55.7
October 1999 59.5 60.8 58.3 58.8 52.8 53.0 56.6 56.4
November 1999 59.9 61.9 57.4 58.6 52.2 52.6 55.9 56.1
December 1999 55.5 59.6 58.7 59.0 54.3 54.6 56.9 56.7

Seasonally Adjusted Indices 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999

  Inventories Prices Export Orders Imports
  Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision Previous Current Revision
January 1996 46.5 46.6 39.7 40.3 50.3 50.0 48.2 48.3
February 1996 43.4 43.3 38.7 38.8 51.5 51.3 48.1 48.1
March 1996 40.0 40.0 39.9 39.9 51.0 50.8 48.0 47.5
April 1996 44.2 43.9 41.5 41.5 51.7 51.4 47.7 47.5
May 1996 38.5 39.2 50.6 50.2 57.5 57.2 48.7 48.5
June 1996 42.8 43.1 48.2 47.9 53.4 53.1 48.9 48.7
July 1996 40.8 40.8 44.1 44.1 53.1 53.2 52.0 53.1
August 1996 42.3 42.2 46.9 46.6 55.2 55.3 50.0 50.0
September 1996 43.5 43.7 50.8 50.1 55.3 55.1 50.9 50.7
October 1996 40.3 39.6 46.1 45.7 56.5 57.0 52.8 52.8
November 1996 42.4 42.3 46.0 46.3 54.5 55.5 52.9 53.2
December 1996 44.4 44.4 51.0 52.0 55.7 56.5 51.2 51.6
                 
January 1997 43.1 43.3 52.1 53.2 56.1 55.7 52.4 52.6
February 1997 41.3 41.1 55.6 56.0 54.6 54.4 51.7 51.7
March 1997 43.6 43.5 51.4 51.3 57.3 56.7 49.9 49.0
April 1997 41.7 41.1 51.2 51.2 55.6 55.1 52.9 52.5
May 1997 46.9 48.0 49.1 48.4 55.0 54.6 53.6 53.1
June 1997 44.7 45.2 49.1 48.7 54.2 53.9 54.9 54.7
July 1997 45.9 46.1 51.9 51.9 55.4 55.7 53.3 54.6
August 1997 43.2 43.1 52.5 52.0 55.0 55.0 53.9 53.9
September 1997 46.8 47.2 54.7 53.5 50.2 49.8 52.8 52.4
October 1997 46.7 45.4 54.3 53.4 52.3 53.1 51.8 51.7
November 1997 44.1 43.8 50.9 51.5 52.6 53.7 53.1 53.6
December 1997 46.5 46.7 50.4 51.9 49.8 51.0 55.4 56.2
                 
January 1998 45.9 46.2 45.6 47.2 46.2 45.6 54.0 54.4
February 1998 46.6 46.5 46.0 46.5 48.6 48.5 51.3 51.3
March 1998 46.6 46.4 44.7 44.6 48.1 47.4 54.2 52.9
April 1998 46.1 45.3 42.1 42.0 49.2 48.6 55.4 54.8
May 1998 44.6 45.8 41.7 41.0 47.4 46.9 53.6 52.9
June 1998 41.5 42.1 39.1 38.7 46.8 46.5 52.4 52.2
July 1998 43.9 44.1 38.0 38.0 45.1 45.5 49.3 50.7
August 1998 45.1 45.1 37.5 37.2 44.0 43.9 51.4 51.3
September 1998 42.8 43.4 34.8 33.8 44.9 44.3 52.7 52.1
October 1998 49.5 47.4 35.0 34.2 42.3 43.3 51.3 51.2
November 1998 44.7 44.3 33.4 34.0 42.8 43.7 49.7 50.4
December 1998 41.9 42.2 31.1 32.2 44.7 46.0 49.9 50.7
                 
January 1999 42.3 42.6 32.5 33.8 49.8 49.1 49.4 49.8
February 1999 44.2 44.2 35.9 36.2 54.0 53.9 52.3 52.5
March 1999 44.6 44.4 43.2 43.0 51.7 50.8 55.3 53.9
April 1999 46.6 45.7 49.9 49.9 51.6 50.8 53.4 52.7
May 1999 42.2 43.2 52.2 51.2 52.4 51.8 54.6 53.8
June 1999 44.1 44.8 53.5 53.1 53.3 52.7 52.9 52.6
July 1999 44.4 44.8 54.7 54.6 50.4 51.0 51.6 53.2
August 1999 46.6 46.8 59.8 59.1 54.2 54.1 53.9 53.9
September 1999 43.2 43.9 67.6 65.4 56.6 55.7 55.7 55.0
October 1999 51.1 48.5 69.4 67.6 52.4 53.9 54.3 54.3
November 1999 50.0 49.5 65.3 66.6 54.5 55.7 51.2 52.1
December 1999 47.2 47.8 65.7 68.3 53.4 55.1 51.4 52.2

The National Association of Purchasing Management is a not-for-profit association that provides national and international leadership in purchasing and supply management research and education. The association exists to educate, develop, and advance the purchasing and supply management profession. NAPM provides members and nonmembers alike with opportunities to expand their professional knowledge and skills. NAPM is comprised of 182 affiliates with more than 45,000 members throughout the United States and Puerto Rico.



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