FOR RELEASE: January 10, 2000

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as the diffusion indices for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Prices, New Export Orders, and Imports within the monthly Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indices will note that these changes are effective with the January 2000 Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2000.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to nonmovable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indices a year ahead (2000). The Department of Commerce then takes the actual experience for that year and adjusts the factors, which also impacts the indices for the previous years: 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999.

The previous and current revisions to the indices for 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999 are attached, as well as the 2000 projected seasonal factors. The 2000 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2001. Previously published and revised Purchasing Managers' Indexes, together with projected seasonal factors for 2000, are listed on the next page. Indices for all other indicators, both previously published and revised, are shown on pages 3 and 4.

2000 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for NAPM Indices

(Prepared by George McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

To compute the Purchasing Managers' Index

1. Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one-half of the percent same or unchanged.
2. Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
3. Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight and sum. To compute other indexes, follow #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

Seasonally Adjusted Indices 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999

Seasonally Adjusted Indices 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999

The National Association of Purchasing Management is a not-for-profit association that provides national and international leadership in purchasing and supply management research and education. The association exists to educate, develop, and advance the purchasing and supply management profession. NAPM provides members and nonmembers alike with opportunities to expand their professional knowledge and skills. NAPM is comprised of 182 affiliates with more than 45,000 members throughout the United States and Puerto Rico.

Back to Top