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U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for Purchasing Managers' Index and Diffusion Indices For The Manufacturing Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: January 8, 1999

Contact: Zenobia Daruwalla
  NAPM, Media Relations
  Tempe, Arizona
  800/888-6276, Ext. 3015

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as the diffusion indices for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Prices, New Export Orders, and Imports within the monthly Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indices will note these changes effective with the January 1999 Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be issued on February 1, 1999.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to nonmoveable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indices a year ahead (1999). The Department of Commerce then takes the actual experience for that year and adjusts the factors, which also impacts the indices for the previous years: 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998.

The previous and current revisions to the indices for 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 are attached, as well as the 1999 projected seasonal factors. The 1999 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2000. Previously published and revised Purchasing Managers' Indexes, together with projected seasonal factors for 1999 are listed on the next page. Indices for all other indicators both previously published and revised, are shown on pages 3 and 4.

(Prepared by George McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

1999 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for NAPM Indexes
  New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries Inventories Prices Export Orders Imports
January 1999 0.956 0.988 0.949 0.972 0.982 0.984 0.983 0.981
February 1999 0.961 0.967 1.010 0.989 1.030 0.976 0.953 1.003
March 1999 1.022 0.998 1.010 0.981 0.998 0.961 0.977 0.977
April 1999 1.095 1.068 1.020 1.002 1.020 0.961 1.017 0.984
May 1999 1.035 1.039 1.009 1.012 1.019 1.005 0.993 1.008
June 1999 0.996 1.000 1.041 0.989 1.009 1.037 1.013 1.001
July 1999 1.011 0.953 1.028 1.014 0.991 1.014 1.022 1.037
August 1999 1.007 0.988 0.984 1.027 1.019 1.053 1.014 1.012
September 1999 1.009 1.005 0.981 1.010 1.030 1.006 1.025 0.996
October 1999 0.991 1.021 0.984 0.998 0.950 1.016 0.992 1.003
November 1999 0.977 1.010 1.006 1.019 0.950 1.003 1.027 0.996
December 1999 0.937 0.962 0.976 0.984 1.006 0.982 0.984 1.002
                 
Weight .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 (Not part of Purchasing Managers' index)

To compute the Purchasing Managers' Index

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight and sum. To compute other indexes, follow #1 and #2 above for each indicator.


1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
  1995 1996 1997 1998
  Previous Revision Previous Revision Previous Revision Previous Revision
January 57.3 57.4 45.2 45.4 52.8 53.3 52.4 53.0
February 55.1 55.1 46.0 46.0 53.3 53.4 53.3 53.4
March 52.2 52.1 47.3 47.1 55.1 54.7 54.8 54.2
April 51.6 51.5 49.6 49.4 54.2 53.9 52.9 52.5
May 46.7 46.7 49.3 49.4 56.4 56.5 51.4 51.4
June 45.9 45.9 53.7 53.8 55.6 55.7 49.6 49.7
July 50.6 50.7 49.6 49.7 57.5 57.7 49.1 49.2
August 47.3 47.1 51.8 51.6 56.4 56.0 49.4 48.9
September 48.2 48.1 51.5 51.3 54.6 54.3 49.4 49.1
October 46.6 46.7 50.2 50.3 55.9 55.9 48.3 48.4
November 45.8 45.9 52.5 52.6 54.5 54.7 46.8 47.0
December 46.1 46.2 54.3 54.5 53.1 53.4 45.1 45.3


Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998
  New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries
  Previous Current
Revision
Previous Current
Revision
Previous Current
Revision
Previous Current
Revision
January 1995 59.6 59.7 60.8 60.9 51.7 51.9 62.4 62.7
February 1995 56.6 56.6 57.4 57.4 50.0 50.0 60.5 60.7
March 1995 52.1 51.9 54.8 54.8 48.3 48.1 56.9 56.9
April 1995 52.4 52.2 54.1 54.1 47.5 47.4 56.3 56.3
May 1995 43.9 44.0 50.0 49.9 43.7 43.7 53.2 53.3
June 1995 43.7 43.5 45.6 46.1 46.6 46.5 51.8 51.8
July 1995 53.2 52.7 50.9 51.6 48.0 48.1 51.3 51.3
August 1995 46.7 46.5 49.3 49.1 44.9 45.0 49.3 49.1
September 1995 49.4 49.4 51.1 50.5 45.5 45.5 50.3 50.0
October 1995 47.1 47.5 47.4 47.0 45.8 45.9 48.5 48.4
November 1995 48.2 48.6 45.1 45.0 44.5 44.5 45.4 45.3
December 1995 45.7 45.9 46.9 46.9 46.2 46.2 47.5 47.5
                 
January 1996 43.7 43.9 45.2 45.5 44.9 45.1 47.3 47.8
February 1996 46.2 46.3 45.8 45.8 44.5 44.4 49.2 49.5
March 1996 49.7 49.4 47.8 47.7 44.8 44.4 49.8 49.7
April 1996 52.9 52.4 51.7 51.7 44.9 44.8 49.3 49.4
May 1996 52.2 52.4 53.4 53.1 45.1 45.1 49.7 49.9
June 1996 60.3 60.0 55.2 55.8 48.4 48.4 52.8 52.7
July 1996 52.9 52.2 51.0 52.2 46.2 46.4 50.9 50.8
August 1996 54.8 54.4 55.2 54.9 47.6 47.5 52.1 51.9
September 1996 55.3 55.1 54.7 53.8 47.0 47.1 50.4 50.0
October 1996 51.4 52.2 55.6 55.0 45.9 46.0 50.9 50.9
November 1996 55.6 56.2 57.5 57.4 47.4 47.4 51.3 51.1
December 1996 59.0 59.6 58.8 58.9 48.4 48.4 52.0 52.1
                 
January 1997 55.6 56.4 58.2 58.9 49.1 49.5 48.9 49.6
February 1997 58.3 58.5 59.3 59.3 45.5 45.5 51.7 52.0
March 1997 60.3 59.5 57.4 57.3 51.4 50.7 53.4 53.2
April 1997 57.8 56.9 56.8 56.8 52.2 52.1 53.3 53.4
May 1997 62.7 63.1 57.4 56.9 52.0 52.0 54.6 54.8
June 1997 61.2 60.9 56.7 57.4 52.2 52.0 54.9 54.7
July 1997 62.9 61.7 62.5 64.3 51.1 51.4 54.8 54.7
August 1997 60.4 59.8 61.2 60.7 51.6 51.5 55.6 55.2
September 1997 56.1 55.9 58.4 57.2 51.1 51.3 55.5 55.0
October 1997 58.4 59.6 59.6 58.4 52.5 52.7 55.0 55.0
November 1997 55.1 56.0 58.5 58.4 53.3 53.2 55.2 55.0
December 1997 53.9 54.4 55.8 56.1 50.9 51.1 54.0 54.3
                 
January 1998 55.2 56.3 53.3 54.0 50.1 50.6 52.0 52.9
February 1998 55.9 56.1 55.3 55.3 50.9 50.9 52.1 52.5
March 1998 57.3 56.3 57.6 57.5 52.5 51.6 53.4 53.1
April 1998 56.8 55.8 53.4 53.4 49.8 49.5 52.3 52.4
May 1998 52.1 52.2 54.1 53.5 51.0 51.0 51.2 51.3
June 1998 52.0 51.7 50.7 51.5 47.8 47.6 51.3 51.1
July 1998 53.2 52.0 49.2 50.8 44.4 44.7 50.4 50.3
August 1998 50.9 50.2 50.3 49.7 46.9 46.8 50.6 50.2
September 1998 50.1 50.0 53.4 52.2 45.5 45.8 51.5 51.0
October 1998 45.7 46.8 52.6 51.5 45.0 45.2 50.0 50.1
November 1998 45.5 46.5 48.6 48.5 44.9 44.7 50.2 50.0
December 1998 46.0 46.4 46.5 46.8 40.8 40.9 48.5 48.7


Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998
  Inventories Prices Export Orders Imports
  Previous Current
Revision
Previous Current
Revision
Previous Current
Revision
Previous Current
Revision
January 1995 45.4 45.2 85.6 86.0 58.4 59.1 52.2 52.2
February 1995 47.1 47.0 81.6 81.7 58.6 58.7 53.0 53.0
March 1995 47.0 47.0 78.7 78.9 56.8 56.9 51.7 52.0
April 1995 44.5 44.2 73.9 74.5 55.7 55.6 50.1 49.8
May 1995 42.9 43.3 70.2 70.5 56.2 56.3 48.0 47.9
June 1995 42.8 43.0 64.1 64.7 56.1 56.1 49.4 49.3
July 1995 46.6 46.5 58.4 58.6 56.4 56.4 53.2 53.3
August 1995 45.7 45.5 48.9 48.5 53.7 53.7 51.8 51.8
September 1995 39.9 40.3 48.4 48.8 53.0 52.6 49.5 49.4
October 1995 42.2 42.2 47.1 46.5 52.1 52.2 49.5 49.5
November 1995 43.4 43.3 45.8 44.5 55.0 54.7 44.1 44.2
December 1995 43.1 43.1 40.6 40.3 56.8 56.5 49.5 49.5
                 
January 1996 46.9 46.5 39.3 39.7 49.5 50.3 48.2 48.2
February 1996 43.6 43.4 38.6 38.7 51.3 51.5 48.1 48.1
March 1996 40.1 40.0 39.7 39.9 50.9 51.0 47.6 48.0
April 1996 44.6 44.2 40.9 41.5 51.9 51.7 48.1 47.7
May 1996 37.9 38.5 50.2 50.6 57.4 57.5 49.0 48.7
June 1996 42.4 42.8 47.6 48.2 53.5 53.4 48.9 48.9
July 1996 40.9 40.8 44.0 44.1 53.1 53.1 51.9 52.0
August 1996 42.5 42.3 47.5 46.9 55.2 55.2 50.1 50.0
September 1996 43.0 43.5 50.3 50.8 56.2 55.3 51.1 50.9
October 1996 40.4 40.3 46.9 46.1 56.3 56.5 52.8 52.8
November 1996 42.5 42.4 47.8 46.0 54.7 54.5 52.6 52.9
December 1996 44.3 44.4 51.4 51.0 56.3 55.7 51.1 51.2
                 
January 1997 43.7 43.1 51.2 52.1 55.0 56.1 52.3 52.4
February 1997 41.5 41.3 55.4 55.6 54.1 54.6 51.7 51.7
March 1997 43.7 43.6 51.1 51.4 57.1 57.3 49.2 49.9
April 1997 42.2 41.7 50.2 51.2 56.1 55.6 53.6 52.9
May 1997 46.1 46.9 48.6 49.1 55.0 55.0 53.9 53.6
June 1997 44.1 44.7 48.3 49.1 54.4 54.2 55.1 54.9
July 1997 45.8 45.9 51.8 51.9 55.3 55.4 53.2 53.3
August 1997 43.4 43.2 53.4 52.5 55.1 55.0 53.9 53.9
September 1997 46.2 46.8 54.1 54.7 51.2 50.2 53.1 52.8
October 1997 47.0 46.7 55.5 54.3 51.9 52.3 51.7 51.8
November 1997 44.3 44.1 53.2 50.9 52.6 52.6 52.6 53.1
December 1997 46.5 46.5 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.8 55.4 55.4
                 
January 1998 46.7 45.9 44.7 45.6 45.0 46.2 53.9 54.0
February 1998 46.9 46.6 45.8 46.0 47.9 48.6 51.2 51.3
March 1998 46.8 46.6 44.4 44.7 48.0 48.1 53.4 54.2
April 1998 46.6 46.1 41.2 42.1 49.7 49.2 56.3 55.4
May 1998 43.7 44.6 41.1 41.7 47.5 47.4 53.9 53.6
June 1998 40.8 41.5 38.4 39.1 47.0 46.8 52.6 52.4
July 1998 43.7 43.9 38.0 38.0 45.0 45.1 49.2 49.3
August 1998 45.3 45.1 38.4 37.5 44.1 44.0 51.4 51.4
September 1998 42.3 42.8 34.4 34.8 45.8 44.9 53.1 52.7
October 1998 49.8 49.5 35.8 35.0 42.0 42.3 51.2 51.3
November 1998 44.9 44.7 35.0 33.4 42.9 42.8 49.2 49.7
December 1998 41.8 41.9 31.3 31.1 45.5 44.7 49.8 49.9

The National Association of Purchasing Management is a not-for-profit association that provides national and international leadership in purchasing and supply management research and education. The association exists to educate, develop, and advance the purchasing and supply management profession. NAPM provides members and non-members alike with opportunities to expand their professional knowledge and skills. NAPM is comprised of 180 affiliates with more than 43,000 members throughout the United States and Puerto Rico.



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