ISM - Media Release: U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for Purchasing Managers' Index and Diffusion Indices For The Manufacturing Report On Business®

U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for Purchasing Managers' Index and Diffusion Indices For The Manufacturing Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: January 8, 1999

Contact:	Zenobia Daruwalla
	NAPM, Media Relations
	Tempe, Arizona
	800/888-6276, Ext. 3015

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as the diffusion indices for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Prices, New Export Orders, and Imports within the monthly Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indices will note these changes effective with the January 1999 Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be issued on February 1, 1999.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to nonmoveable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indices a year ahead (1999). The Department of Commerce then takes the actual experience for that year and adjusts the factors, which also impacts the indices for the previous years: 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998.

The previous and current revisions to the indices for 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 are attached, as well as the 1999 projected seasonal factors. The 1999 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2000. Previously published and revised Purchasing Managers' Indexes, together with projected seasonal factors for 1999 are listed on the next page. Indices for all other indicators both previously published and revised, are shown on pages 3 and 4.

(Prepared by George McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

1999 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for NAPM Indexes
	New Orders	Production	Employment	Supplier Deliveries	Inventories	Prices	Export Orders	Imports
January 1999	0.956	0.988	0.949	0.972	0.982	0.984	0.983	0.981
February 1999	0.961	0.967	1.010	0.989	1.030	0.976	0.953	1.003
March 1999	1.022	0.998	1.010	0.981	0.998	0.961	0.977	0.977
April 1999	1.095	1.068	1.020	1.002	1.020	0.961	1.017	0.984
May 1999	1.035	1.039	1.009	1.012	1.019	1.005	0.993	1.008
June 1999	0.996	1.000	1.041	0.989	1.009	1.037	1.013	1.001
July 1999	1.011	0.953	1.028	1.014	0.991	1.014	1.022	1.037
August 1999	1.007	0.988	0.984	1.027	1.019	1.053	1.014	1.012
September 1999	1.009	1.005	0.981	1.010	1.030	1.006	1.025	0.996
October 1999	0.991	1.021	0.984	0.998	0.950	1.016	0.992	1.003
November 1999	0.977	1.010	1.006	1.019	0.950	1.003	1.027	0.996
December 1999	0.937	0.962	0.976	0.984	1.006	0.982	0.984	1.002

Weight	.30	.25	.20	.15	.10	(Not part of Purchasing Managers' index)

To compute the Purchasing Managers' Index

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Multiply each seasonally adjusted diffusion index by its weight and sum. To compute other indexes, follow #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
	1995		1996		1997		1998
	Previous	Revision	Previous	Revision	Previous	Revision	Previous	Revision
January	57.3	57.4	45.2	45.4	52.8	53.3	52.4	53.0
February	55.1	55.1	46.0	46.0	53.3	53.4	53.3	53.4
March	52.2	52.1	47.3	47.1	55.1	54.7	54.8	54.2
April	51.6	51.5	49.6	49.4	54.2	53.9	52.9	52.5
May	46.7	46.7	49.3	49.4	56.4	56.5	51.4	51.4
June	45.9	45.9	53.7	53.8	55.6	55.7	49.6	49.7
July	50.6	50.7	49.6	49.7	57.5	57.7	49.1	49.2
August	47.3	47.1	51.8	51.6	56.4	56.0	49.4	48.9
September	48.2	48.1	51.5	51.3	54.6	54.3	49.4	49.1
October	46.6	46.7	50.2	50.3	55.9	55.9	48.3	48.4
November	45.8	45.9	52.5	52.6	54.5	54.7	46.8	47.0
December	46.1	46.2	54.3	54.5	53.1	53.4	45.1	45.3

Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998
	New Orders		Production		Employment		Supplier Deliveries
	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision
January 1995	59.6	59.7	60.8	60.9	51.7	51.9	62.4	62.7
February 1995	56.6	56.6	57.4	57.4	50.0	50.0	60.5	60.7
March 1995	52.1	51.9	54.8	54.8	48.3	48.1	56.9	56.9
April 1995	52.4	52.2	54.1	54.1	47.5	47.4	56.3	56.3
May 1995	43.9	44.0	50.0	49.9	43.7	43.7	53.2	53.3
June 1995	43.7	43.5	45.6	46.1	46.6	46.5	51.8	51.8
July 1995	53.2	52.7	50.9	51.6	48.0	48.1	51.3	51.3
August 1995	46.7	46.5	49.3	49.1	44.9	45.0	49.3	49.1
September 1995	49.4	49.4	51.1	50.5	45.5	45.5	50.3	50.0
October 1995	47.1	47.5	47.4	47.0	45.8	45.9	48.5	48.4
November 1995	48.2	48.6	45.1	45.0	44.5	44.5	45.4	45.3
December 1995	45.7	45.9	46.9	46.9	46.2	46.2	47.5	47.5

January 1996	43.7	43.9	45.2	45.5	44.9	45.1	47.3	47.8
February 1996	46.2	46.3	45.8	45.8	44.5	44.4	49.2	49.5
March 1996	49.7	49.4	47.8	47.7	44.8	44.4	49.8	49.7
April 1996	52.9	52.4	51.7	51.7	44.9	44.8	49.3	49.4
May 1996	52.2	52.4	53.4	53.1	45.1	45.1	49.7	49.9
June 1996	60.3	60.0	55.2	55.8	48.4	48.4	52.8	52.7
July 1996	52.9	52.2	51.0	52.2	46.2	46.4	50.9	50.8
August 1996	54.8	54.4	55.2	54.9	47.6	47.5	52.1	51.9
September 1996	55.3	55.1	54.7	53.8	47.0	47.1	50.4	50.0
October 1996	51.4	52.2	55.6	55.0	45.9	46.0	50.9	50.9
November 1996	55.6	56.2	57.5	57.4	47.4	47.4	51.3	51.1
December 1996	59.0	59.6	58.8	58.9	48.4	48.4	52.0	52.1

January 1997	55.6	56.4	58.2	58.9	49.1	49.5	48.9	49.6
February 1997	58.3	58.5	59.3	59.3	45.5	45.5	51.7	52.0
March 1997	60.3	59.5	57.4	57.3	51.4	50.7	53.4	53.2
April 1997	57.8	56.9	56.8	56.8	52.2	52.1	53.3	53.4
May 1997	62.7	63.1	57.4	56.9	52.0	52.0	54.6	54.8
June 1997	61.2	60.9	56.7	57.4	52.2	52.0	54.9	54.7
July 1997	62.9	61.7	62.5	64.3	51.1	51.4	54.8	54.7
August 1997	60.4	59.8	61.2	60.7	51.6	51.5	55.6	55.2
September 1997	56.1	55.9	58.4	57.2	51.1	51.3	55.5	55.0
October 1997	58.4	59.6	59.6	58.4	52.5	52.7	55.0	55.0
November 1997	55.1	56.0	58.5	58.4	53.3	53.2	55.2	55.0
December 1997	53.9	54.4	55.8	56.1	50.9	51.1	54.0	54.3

January 1998	55.2	56.3	53.3	54.0	50.1	50.6	52.0	52.9
February 1998	55.9	56.1	55.3	55.3	50.9	50.9	52.1	52.5
March 1998	57.3	56.3	57.6	57.5	52.5	51.6	53.4	53.1
April 1998	56.8	55.8	53.4	53.4	49.8	49.5	52.3	52.4
May 1998	52.1	52.2	54.1	53.5	51.0	51.0	51.2	51.3
June 1998	52.0	51.7	50.7	51.5	47.8	47.6	51.3	51.1
July 1998	53.2	52.0	49.2	50.8	44.4	44.7	50.4	50.3
August 1998	50.9	50.2	50.3	49.7	46.9	46.8	50.6	50.2
September 1998	50.1	50.0	53.4	52.2	45.5	45.8	51.5	51.0
October 1998	45.7	46.8	52.6	51.5	45.0	45.2	50.0	50.1
November 1998	45.5	46.5	48.6	48.5	44.9	44.7	50.2	50.0
December 1998	46.0	46.4	46.5	46.8	40.8	40.9	48.5	48.7

Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998
	Inventories		Prices		Export Orders		Imports
	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision	Previous	Current Revision
January 1995	45.4	45.2	85.6	86.0	58.4	59.1	52.2	52.2
February 1995	47.1	47.0	81.6	81.7	58.6	58.7	53.0	53.0
March 1995	47.0	47.0	78.7	78.9	56.8	56.9	51.7	52.0
April 1995	44.5	44.2	73.9	74.5	55.7	55.6	50.1	49.8
May 1995	42.9	43.3	70.2	70.5	56.2	56.3	48.0	47.9
June 1995	42.8	43.0	64.1	64.7	56.1	56.1	49.4	49.3
July 1995	46.6	46.5	58.4	58.6	56.4	56.4	53.2	53.3
August 1995	45.7	45.5	48.9	48.5	53.7	53.7	51.8	51.8
September 1995	39.9	40.3	48.4	48.8	53.0	52.6	49.5	49.4
October 1995	42.2	42.2	47.1	46.5	52.1	52.2	49.5	49.5
November 1995	43.4	43.3	45.8	44.5	55.0	54.7	44.1	44.2
December 1995	43.1	43.1	40.6	40.3	56.8	56.5	49.5	49.5

January 1996	46.9	46.5	39.3	39.7	49.5	50.3	48.2	48.2
February 1996	43.6	43.4	38.6	38.7	51.3	51.5	48.1	48.1
March 1996	40.1	40.0	39.7	39.9	50.9	51.0	47.6	48.0
April 1996	44.6	44.2	40.9	41.5	51.9	51.7	48.1	47.7
May 1996	37.9	38.5	50.2	50.6	57.4	57.5	49.0	48.7
June 1996	42.4	42.8	47.6	48.2	53.5	53.4	48.9	48.9
July 1996	40.9	40.8	44.0	44.1	53.1	53.1	51.9	52.0
August 1996	42.5	42.3	47.5	46.9	55.2	55.2	50.1	50.0
September 1996	43.0	43.5	50.3	50.8	56.2	55.3	51.1	50.9
October 1996	40.4	40.3	46.9	46.1	56.3	56.5	52.8	52.8
November 1996	42.5	42.4	47.8	46.0	54.7	54.5	52.6	52.9
December 1996	44.3	44.4	51.4	51.0	56.3	55.7	51.1	51.2

January 1997	43.7	43.1	51.2	52.1	55.0	56.1	52.3	52.4
February 1997	41.5	41.3	55.4	55.6	54.1	54.6	51.7	51.7
March 1997	43.7	43.6	51.1	51.4	57.1	57.3	49.2	49.9
April 1997	42.2	41.7	50.2	51.2	56.1	55.6	53.6	52.9
May 1997	46.1	46.9	48.6	49.1	55.0	55.0	53.9	53.6
June 1997	44.1	44.7	48.3	49.1	54.4	54.2	55.1	54.9
July 1997	45.8	45.9	51.8	51.9	55.3	55.4	53.2	53.3
August 1997	43.4	43.2	53.4	52.5	55.1	55.0	53.9	53.9
September 1997	46.2	46.8	54.1	54.7	51.2	50.2	53.1	52.8
October 1997	47.0	46.7	55.5	54.3	51.9	52.3	51.7	51.8
November 1997	44.3	44.1	53.2	50.9	52.6	52.6	52.6	53.1
December 1997	46.5	46.5	50.8	50.4	50.6	49.8	55.4	55.4

January 1998	46.7	45.9	44.7	45.6	45.0	46.2	53.9	54.0
February 1998	46.9	46.6	45.8	46.0	47.9	48.6	51.2	51.3
March 1998	46.8	46.6	44.4	44.7	48.0	48.1	53.4	54.2
April 1998	46.6	46.1	41.2	42.1	49.7	49.2	56.3	55.4
May 1998	43.7	44.6	41.1	41.7	47.5	47.4	53.9	53.6
June 1998	40.8	41.5	38.4	39.1	47.0	46.8	52.6	52.4
July 1998	43.7	43.9	38.0	38.0	45.0	45.1	49.2	49.3
August 1998	45.3	45.1	38.4	37.5	44.1	44.0	51.4	51.4
September 1998	42.3	42.8	34.4	34.8	45.8	44.9	53.1	52.7
October 1998	49.8	49.5	35.8	35.0	42.0	42.3	51.2	51.3
November 1998	44.9	44.7	35.0	33.4	42.9	42.8	49.2	49.7
December 1998	41.8	41.9	31.3	31.1	45.5	44.7	49.8	49.9

The National Association of Purchasing Management is a not-for-profit association that provides national and international leadership in purchasing and supply management research and education. The association exists to educate, develop, and advance the purchasing and supply management profession. NAPM provides members and non-members alike with opportunities to expand their professional knowledge and skills. NAPM is comprised of 180 affiliates with more than 43,000 members throughout the United States and Puerto Rico.