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October 2013 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: November 5, 2013


Contact: Rose Marie Goupil
ISM, ROB Media Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws


NMI® at 55.4%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of October 2013.


Business Activity Index at 59.7%
New Orders Index at 56.8%
Employment Index at 56.2%

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 46th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 55.4 percent in October, 1 percentage point higher than September's reading of 54.4 percent. This indicates continued growth at a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.7 percent, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than the 55.1 percent reported in September, reflecting growth for the 51st consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 56.8 percent, and the Employment Index increased 3.5 percentage points to 56.2 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 15th consecutive month. The Prices Index decreased 1.1 percentage points to 56.1 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in October when compared to September. According to the NMI®, 10 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in October. Respondents' comments are mixed with the majority reflecting an uptick in business. A number of respondents indicate that they are negatively impacted by the government shutdown."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 10 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; Information; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Finance & Insurance. The eight industries reporting contraction in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Mining; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Accommodation & Food Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Sales continue to increase slightly over the same period last year." (Public Administration)
  • "We experienced an increase in the level of interest in our services, job awards and professional services placements." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • "Signs of improvement and stability are encouraging; however, the political environment and the cost of ObamaCare are causing a retrenching as costs escalate and margins shrink." (Retail Trade)
  • "Economy continues to be a challenge with consumer fear as a result of the government partial shutdown." (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • "Economic conditions continue to improve slowly in spite of government policy. Housing continues to lead." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • "Business activities are stable compared to previous month." (Finance & Insurance)
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
OCTOBER 2013
  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series
Index
Oct
Series
Index
Sep
Percent
Point
Change
Direction Rate
of
Change
Trend**
(Months)
Series
Index
Oct
Series
Index
Sep
Percent
Point
Change
NMI®/PMI™ 55.4 54.4 +1.0 Growing Faster 46 56.4 56.2 +0.2
Business Activity/Production 59.7 55.1 +4.6 Growing Faster 51 60.8 62.6 -1.8
New Orders 56.8 59.6 -2.8 Growing Slower 51 60.6 60.5 +0.1
Employment 56.2 52.7 +3.5 Growing Faster 15 53.2 55.4 -2.2
Supplier Deliveries 49.0 50.0 -1.0 Faster From Unchanged 1 54.7 52.6 +2.1
Inventories 54.5 54.5 0.0 Growing Same 9 52.5 50.0 +2.5
Prices 56.1 57.2 -1.1 Increasing Slower 49 55.5 56.5 -1.0
Backlog of Orders 50.0 50.5 -0.5 Unchanged From Growing 1 51.5 49.5 +2.0
New Export Orders 53.0 57.5 -4.5 Growing Slower 3 57.0 52.0 +5.0
Imports 55.0 51.5 +3.5 Growing Faster 5 55.5 55.0 +0.5
Inventory Sentiment 62.5 62.0 +0.5 Too High Faster 197 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 47.0 43.0 +4.0

* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.

** Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Airline Tickets; Asphalt Products; Beef; Cheese (2); Dairy; Fuel* (10); Labor; Plastic Bags; Plastic Products; Produce; Resin; Salmon; Seafood; and Shrimp.

Commodities Down in Price

#2 Diesel Fuel; Carbon Steel Products; Crab; Fuel*; Gasoline (2); Soy Oil (2); and Steel Pipe.

Commodities in Short Supply

Helium (5); and Shrimp.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Reported as both up and down in price.



OCTOBER 2013 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


NMI®

In October, the NMI® registered 55.4 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 46th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI® HISTORY
Month NMI® Month NMI®
Oct 2013 55.4 Apr 2013 53.1
Sep 2013 54.4 Mar 2013 54.4
Aug 2013 58.6 Feb 2013 56.0
Jul 2013 56.0 Jan 2013 55.2
Jun 2013 52.8 Dec 2012 55.7
May 2013 53.7 Nov 2012 54.8
Average for 12 months – 55.0
High – 58.6
Low – 52.8

Business Activity

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in October registered 59.7 percent, 4.6 percentage points higher than the 55.1 percent registered in September. Twelve industries reported increased business activity, and five industries reported decreased activity for the month of October. Comments from respondents include: "Market increase; more marketing efforts" and "More aggressive sales teams; more focused planning."

The industries reporting growth of business activity in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Information; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Accommodation & Food Services. The industries reporting decreased business activity in October are: Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Mining.


Business Activity
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 32 50 18 59.7
Sep 2013 27 56 17 55.1
Aug 2013 28 61 11 62.2
Jul 2013 31 55 14 60.4

New Orders

ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in October for the 51st consecutive month. The index registered 56.8 percent, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the 59.6 percent reported in September. Comments from respondents include: "Economic uncertainty" and "Increased orders."

The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Finance & Insurance. The six industries reporting contraction of new orders in October — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.


New Orders
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 27 54 19 56.8
Sep 2013 29 59 12 59.6
Aug 2013 25 63 12 60.5
Jul 2013 25 59 16 57.7

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 15th consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 56.2 percent, which reflects an increase of 3.5 percentage points when compared to the 52.7 percent registered in September. Nine industries reported increased employment, and eight industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: "Slightly higher due to expanded support hiring" and "Acquisition, plus increase in certain business areas."

The industries reporting an increase in employment in October — listed in order — are: Other Services; Information; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Transportation & Warehousing. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Mining.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 22 60 18 56.2
Sep 2013 20 60 20 52.7
Aug 2013 26 58 16 57.0
Jul 2013 25 62 13 53.2

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49 percent in October, indicating that deliveries were faster in October after an unchanged reading of 50 percent reported in September. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

The five industries reporting slower deliveries in October are: Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The eight industries reporting faster deliveries in October — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade.


Supplier Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Index
Oct 2013 4 90 6 49.0
Sep 2013 7 86 7 50.0
Aug 2013 11 87 2 54.5
Jul 2013 7 91 2 52.5

Inventories

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in October for the ninth consecutive month. The index registered 54.5 percent, which is the same reading reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 27 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Work delays — materials already purchased so inventories are higher than normal" and "Expected increase in inventories."

The nine industries reporting an increase in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Mining; Retail Trade; Information; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; and Public Administration. The four industries reporting decreases in inventories in October are: Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 24 61 15 54.5
Sep 2013 24 61 15 54.5
Aug 2013 25 62 13 56.0
Jul 2013 22 63 15 53.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in October for the 49th consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for October registered 56.1 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than the 57.2 percent reported in September. In October, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 16 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 77 percent, and 7 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Eight non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of October, in the following order: Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; and Utilities. The four industries reporting a decrease in prices paid during October are: Information; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Mining. Six industries reported no change in prices paid in October compared to September.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 16 77 7 56.1
Sep 2013 16 78 6 57.2
Aug 2013 13 78 9 53.4
Jul 2013 21 72 7 60.1

Backlog of Orders

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index was unchanged in October. The index registered 50 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point lower than the 50.5 percent reported in September and August. Of the total respondents in October, 33 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The four industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in October are: Retail Trade; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs are: Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services. Nine industries reported no change in order backlogs in October compared to September.


Backlog of Orders
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 12 76 12 50.0
Sep 2013 15 71 14 50.5
Aug 2013 12 77 11 50.5
Jul 2013 11 71 18 46.5

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel grew in October for the third consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index for October registered 53 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 57.5 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 59 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the United States.

The five industries reporting an increase in new export orders in October are: Mining; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in export orders in October are: Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Eleven industries reported no change in export orders in October compared to September.


New Export Orders
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 11 84 5 53.0
Sep 2013 23 69 8 57.5
Aug 2013 11 79 10 50.5
Jul 2013 13 73 14 49.5

Imports

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Imports Index grew in October for the fifth consecutive month. This month's reading at 55 percent is 3.5 percentage points higher than the 51.5 percent reported in September. Fifty-three percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of October are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. No industry reported a decrease in imports for the month of October. Thirteen industries reported no change in imports for the month of October compared to September.


Imports
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Index
Oct 2013 12 86 2 55.0
Sep 2013 11 81 8 51.5
Aug 2013 16 78 6 55.0
Jul 2013 8 85 7 50.5

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in October registered 62.5 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 62 percent reported in September. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high at this time. In October, 28 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 3 percent said their inventories were too low, and 69 percent said their inventories were about right.

The 11 industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in October — listed in order — are: Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. No industry reported a feeling that its inventory is too low in October.


Inventory Sentiment
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Index
Oct 2013 28 69 3 62.5
Sep 2013 31 62 7 62.0
Aug 2013 34 59 7 63.5
Jul 2013 32 64 4 64.0

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the first supply institute in the world. Founded in 1915, ISM exists to lead and serve the supply management profession and is a highly influential and respected association in the global marketplace. ISM's mission is to enhance the value and performance of procurement and supply chain management practitioners and their organizations worldwide.

The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's website at www.ism.ws on the third business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the November 2013 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, December 4, 2013.



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