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ECONOMIC GROWTH TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT 2013

FOR RELEASE: April 30, 2013

Contact:   Rose Marie Goupil
ISM, ROB Media Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws


Manufacturing Growth Continues in 2013
Revenue to Increase 4.8%
Capital Investment to Increase 9.1%
Capacity Utilization at 80.2%
Non-Manufacturing Growth Also Continues in 2013
Revenue to Increase 3.5%
Capital Investment to Increase 3.6%
Capacity Utilization at 84.7%

(Tempe, AZ) — Economic growth is expected to continue in the United States throughout the remainder of 2013, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in their spring 2013 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2013 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM). The forecast was presented today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary

Sixty-six percent of respondents from the panel of manufacturing supply management executives predict their revenues will be 9.9 percent greater in 2013 compared to 2012, 12 percent expect a 14.6 percent decline, and 22 percent foresee no change. This yields an overall average expectation of 4.8 percent revenue growth among manufacturers in 2013, which is a slight increase of 0.2 percentage point from December 2012 when the panel predicted a 4.6 percent increase in 2013 revenues. With operating capacity at 80.2 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 9.1 percent, prices paid expected to increase a modest 0.9 percent from now through the end of 2013, and employment expected to grow only 0.9 percent for the balance of 2013, manufacturers are positioned to grow revenues while containing costs through the remainder of the year. "With 17 out of 18 industries within the manufacturing sector predicting growth in 2013 over 2012, U.S. manufacturing continues to demonstrate its broad-based strength, efficiency and leadership in the world economy," said Holcomb.

The 17 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue for 2013 — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Non-Manufacturing Summary

Fifty-six percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect their 2013 revenues to be greater by 7.9 percent than in 2012. Overall, respondents currently expect a 3.5 percent net increase in overall revenues, which is less than the 4.3 percent increase that was forecast in December 2012. "Non-manufacturing will continue to grow for the balance of 2013. Non-manufacturing companies continue to do more with less as evidenced by the high percentage of capacity utilization. Strategic cost management has been of paramount importance for supply managers. This is indicated by the minimal percentage increase in prices despite the volatility of various commodities. The slowing in the rate of increase for overall employment is a potential challenge. However, with 15 out of 18 industries forecasting increased revenues, the non-manufacturing sector will continue on the path of economic growth and recovery," Nieves said.

The 15 non-manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2013 — listed in order — are: Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Information; and Utilities.



OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing

Purchasing and supply managers report that their companies are currently operating at 80.2 percent of normal capacity, representing an increase from the 77.5 percent reported in December 2012, and a decrease from the 81.6 percent reported in April 2012. The seven industries reporting operating capacity levels at or above the average capacity of 80.2 percent — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Primary Metals.

Non-Manufacturing

Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives report that their organizations are currently operating at 84.7 percent of normal capacity. This is less than the 85.4 percent reported in December 2012 and less than the 85.2 percent reported in April 2012. The following 10 industries — listed in order — are operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 84.7 percent: Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Mining; and Public Administration.

Operating Rate
  Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
  April
2012
Dec
2012
April
2013
April
2012
Dec
2012
April
2013
90%+ 37% 31% 32% 51% 51% 49%
50%-89% 60% 63% 63% 45% 48% 48%
Below 50% 3% 6% 5% 4% 1% 3%
Est. Overall Average 81.6% 77.5% 80.2% 85.2% 85.4% 84.7%


PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing

Production capacity in manufacturing is expected to increase 6.7 percent in 2013. This increase is slightly less than the 6.8 percent increase predicted in December 2012 for 2013, but significantly greater than the 1.3 percent increase reported in December for 2012. This reflects the continuing strength in the sector as 41 percent of respondents expect an average capacity increase of 18.8 percent, 6 percent expect decreases averaging 18.7 percent, and 53 percent expect no change. The 13 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2013 — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Paper Products; and Machinery.

Manufacturing Production Capacity
  For 2012 For 2013 For 2013
  Reported
Dec 2012
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
Dec 2012
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Higher 36% +10.9% 43% +16.7% 41% +18.8%
Same 46% NA 52% NA 53% NA
Lower 18% -15.5% 5% -9.5% 6% -18.7%
Net Average   +1.3%   +6.8%   +6.7%

Non-Manufacturing

The capacity to produce products or provide services in the non-manufacturing sector is expected to increase 2.3 percent during 2013. This compares to an increase of 3.2 percent reported for 2012 and a prediction in December 2012 for an increase of 3.4 percent for 2013. For 2013, 25 percent of non-manufacturing respondents expect their capacity to increase by an average of 9.6 percent, and 1 percent of the respondents foresee their capacity decreasing by an average of 7 percent. Seventy-four percent expect no change in their capacity. The 15 industries expecting to add to their production capacity in 2013 — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Construction; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; and Information.

Non-Manufacturing Production or Provision Capacity
  For 2012 For 2013 For 2013
  Reported
Dec 2012
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
Dec 2012
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Higher 35% +11.9% 33% +11.2% 25% +9.6%
Same 58% NA 62% NA 74% NA
Lower 7% -14.0% 5% -7.8% 1% -7%
Net Average   +3.2%   +3.4%   +2.3%


PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2013 vs. 2012

Manufacturing

Survey respondents expect a 9.1 percent increase in capital expenditures in 2013. This is greater than the December 2012 forecast when the panel predicted an increase of 7.6 percent for 2013. Currently, 32 percent of respondents predict increased capital expenditures in 2013, with an average increase of 41.1 percent, while the 16 percent who said their capital spending would decrease expect an average decrease of 24.6 percent. Fifty-two percent say they will spend the same in 2013 as they did in 2012. The 14 industries expecting increases in capital expenditures in 2013 compared to 2012 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Chemical Products.

Non-Manufacturing

Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives are expecting to increase their level of capital expenditures 3.6 percent in 2013 compared to 2012. The 28 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 27.6 percent. An additional 18 percent of respondents anticipate a decrease averaging 23.4 percent. Fifty-four percent of the respondents expect to spend the same on capital expenditures in 2013 as in 2012. The 11 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures in 2013 from 2012 — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Information; and Utilities.

Predicted Capital Expenditures 2013 vs. 2012
  Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
  Predicted
Dec 2012
Predicted
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
Dec 2012
Predicted
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Higher 41% 32% +41.1% 41% 28% +27.6%
Same 35% 52% NA 38% 54% NA
Lower 24% 16% -24.6% 21% 18% -23.4%
Net Average +7.6%   +9.1% +7.0%   +3.6%


PRICES — Changes Between End of 2012 and April 2013

Manufacturing

In the December 2012 forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 2.1 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2013; however, they now report prices have increased only 1.4 percent for the period. The 43 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2012 report an average increase of 4.8 percent, while the 19 percent who report lower prices report an average decrease of 3.4 percent. The remaining 38 percent indicate no change for the period. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 reported increases in prices paid for the first part of 2013 in the following order: Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Non-Manufacturing

Non-Manufacturing respondents report that their purchases in the first four months of this year cost an average of 1.9 percent more than they cost at the end of 2012. This is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 2.3 percent increase predicted in December 2012 for 2013. Fifty-four percent of the non-manufacturing respondents report the prices they paid increased an average of 4.1 percent in the first part of 2013. Five percent report price decreases averaging 6.4 percent. The remaining 41 percent indicate no change in prices paid in the first four months of 2013. The 16 industries reporting an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2013 — listed in order — are: Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information.

Prices — Changes Between End of 2012 and April 2013
  Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
  Predicted
Dec 2012
Reported
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
Dec 2012
Reported
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Higher 57% 43% +4.8% 67% 54% +4.1%
Same 29% 38% NA 28% 41% NA
Lower 14% 19% -3.4% 5% 5% -6.4%
Net Average +2.1%   +1.4% +2.3%   +1.9%


PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2012 and End of 2013

Manufacturing

When asked to predict 2013 price changes, 55 percent of respondents expect the prices they pay to increase by 5.6 percent for the full year of 2013 compared to the end of 2012. At the same time, 17 percent anticipate decreases averaging 4.6 percent. Including the 28 percent who expect no change in prices, survey respondents expect net average prices to increase 2.3 percent for the entire year of 2013, indicating that prices are expected to rise an additional 0.9 percent for the remainder of the year. Out of 18 manufacturing industries, 15 are predicting increases in prices for all of 2013 in the following order: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.

Non-Manufacturing

For 2013, non-manufacturing respondents expect the prices they pay to increase 2.4 percentage points when compared to the prices at the end of 2012. Given that respondents have reported that prices have increased 1.9 percent through April 2013, the prediction is for prices to increase an additional 0.5 percent over the remainder of the year. Sixty percent of the respondents anticipate price increases averaging 4.7 percent. Seven percent of the respondents expect price decreases of 6 percent, and 33 percent do not expect prices to change. The 16 industries expecting price increases in 2013 — listed in order — are: Construction; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Utilities; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information.

Prices — Predicted Changes Between End of 2012 and End of 2013
  Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
  Predicted
Dec 2012
Predicted
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
Dec 2012
Predicted
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Higher 63% 55% +5.6% 71% 60% +4.7%
Same 22% 28% NA 18% 33% NA
Lower 15% 17% -4.6% 11% 7% -6.0%
Net Average +2.8%   +2.3% +2.7%   +2.4%


EMPLOYMENT

Change in Overall Employment — Balance 2013

Manufacturing

ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey respondents forecast that manufacturing employment will increase 0.9 percent during the balance of 2013, with 32 percent expecting employment to be 6.1 percent higher. This is in contrast to the 17 percent who predict employment to be lower by 6.2 percent. The remaining 51 percent of respondents expect their employment levels to be unchanged for the remainder of 2013. The 10 industries reporting expectations of growth in employment during the year — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.

Non-Manufacturing

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that employment will increase 1.3 percent during the balance of 2013. For the remaining months of 2013, 31 percent expect employment to increase 7 percent, 13 percent anticipate employment to decrease by 7.4 percent, and 56 percent expect their employment levels to be unchanged. The 11 industries anticipating increases in employment in the remaining months of 2013 — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.

Predicted Change in Overall Employment
  Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
  Predicted
for 2013
Dec 2012
Balance
of 2013
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Predicted
for 2013
Dec 2012
Balance
of 2013
April 2013
Magnitude
of Change
Higher 30% 32% +6.1% 34% 31% +7%
Same 50% 51% NA 51% 56% NA
Lower 20% 17% -6.2% 15% 13% -7.4%
Net Average     +0.9%     +1.3%
Diffusion Index 55% 57.5%   59.5%   59%


BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2013 vs. 2012

Manufacturing

Looking ahead, expectations are for increased revenues in 2013 as purchasing and supply management executives indicate an overall net nominal increase of 4.8 percent in business revenues for 2013 over 2012. This is 0.2 percentage point higher than the 4.6 percent increase that was forecast in December 2012 for all of 2013, and 0.8 percentage point higher than the 4 percent increase reported for 2012 over 2011. Sixty-six percent of respondents say that nominal revenues (before adjusting for inflation) for 2013 will increase an average of 9.9 percent over 2012. Conversely, 12 percent say their nominal revenues will decrease an average of 14.6 percent, and the remaining 22 percent indicate no change. The 17 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue during the year — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Manufacturing Business Revenues
2012 vs. 2011 2013 vs. 2012
  Reported
Dec 2012
Nominal
% Change
Predicted
Dec 2012
Nominal
% Change
Predicted
April 2013
Nominal
% Change
Higher 54% +11.4% 62% +9.7% 66% +9.9%
Same 26% NA 26% NA 22% NA
Lower 20% -10.8% 12% -11.3% 12% -14.6%
Net Average   +4.0%   +4.6%   +4.8%

Non-Manufacturing

Non-manufacturing respondents forecast that business revenues for 2013 will increase 3.5 percent compared to 2012. This is lower than the 4.3 percent increase predicted in December 2012 for 2013. The 56 percent of respondents forecasting better business in 2013 than in 2012 estimate an average nominal revenue increase of 7.9 percent. This is in contrast to an average nominal decrease of 7.5 percent forecast by the 12 percent who predict less business in 2013. The remaining 32 percent see no change in revenues for 2013. The 15 industries expecting an increase in revenues in 2013 — listed in order — are: Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Information; and Utilities.

Non-Manufacturing Business Revenues
2012 vs. 2011 2013 vs. 2012
  Reported
Dec 2012
Nominal
% Change
Predicted
Dec 2012
Nominal
% Change
Predicted
April 2013
Nominal
% Change
Higher 55% +9.6% 59% +8.4% 56% +7.9%
Same 27% NA 31% NA 32% NA
Lower 18% -9.8% 10% -7.1% 12% -7.5%
Net Average   +3.4%   +4.3%   +3.5%


SUMMARY

Manufacturing
  • Operating rate is currently 80.2 percent of normal capacity.
  • Production capacity is expected to increase 6.7 percent in 2013.
  • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 9.1 percent in 2013.
  • Prices paid increased 1.4 percent through the end of April 2013.
  • Prices are expected to increase a total of 2.3 percent for all of 2013, indicating an expected increase in prices of 0.9 percent for the remainder of the year.
  • Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.9 percent during the remainder of 2013.
  • Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 4.8 percent in 2013.
  • Overall, manufacturing is expected to continue growing in 2013.
Non-Manufacturing
  • Operating rate is currently 84.7 percent of normal capacity.
  • Production capacity is expected to increase 2.3 percent in 2013.
  • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 3.6 percent in 2013.
  • Prices paid increased 1.9 percent through the end of April 2013.
  • Prices are expected to increase an additional 0.5 percent over the remainder of the year, for a total 2013 increase of 2.4 percent.
  • Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 1.3 percent during the balance of 2013.
  • Non-manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 3.5 percent in 2013.
  • The non-manufacturing sector is projected to maintain the course of sustainable growth in 2013.

*Miscellaneous Manufacturing items include products such as Medical Equipment and Supplies, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, Toys and Office Supplies.

**Other Services include: Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services.

In addition to the forecast, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is issued monthly on the first business day of each month and is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic business leaders. The report, compiled from responses to questions asked of approximately 350 purchasing and supply executives across the country, tracks industrial production, new orders, inventories, supplier deliveries, employment, buying policies and prices. Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing*. The report has been issued by the association since 1931, except during World War II.

Covering the non-manufacturing sector, ISM debuted the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® in June 1998. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is released on the third business day of each month, and is based on data received from purchasing and supply executives from 18 different non-manufacturing industries across the country. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services**; and Public Administration. The report covers business activity, new orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, inventory change, inventory sentiment, imports, prices, employment, and supplier deliveries.

The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the first supply institute in the world. Founded in 1915, ISM exists to lead and serve the supply management profession and is a highly influential and respected association in the global marketplace. ISM's mission is to enhance the value and performance of procurement and supply chain management practitioners and their organizations worldwide.

The full text version of the reports is posted on ISM's Home Page at www.ism.ws on the first and third business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the April 2013 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, May 1, 2013.

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the April 2013 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Friday, May 3, 2013.


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