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U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments
to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI™ and Diffusion Indexes
and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI™ and Diffusion Indexes

FOR RELEASE: January 28, 2013

Contact: Rose Marie Goupil
  ISM, ROB Media Relations
  Tempe, Arizona
  800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
  rgoupil@ism.ws

(Tempe, Arizona) — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2013 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2013, and the January 2013 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 5, 2013.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2013).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2009 through 2012, as well as the 2013 projected seasonal factors. The 2013 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2014. Projected seasonal factors for 2013 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI™ for Manufacturing and NMI™ and Business Activity Indexes for Non-Manufacturing.




2013 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes

(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

  New
Orders

Production

Employment
Supplier
Deliveries
Jan 2013 1.003 0.988 0.972 0.980
Feb 2013 1.046 1.051 1.017 0.992
Mar 2013 1.108 1.120 0.996 1.053
Apr 2013 1.090 1.112 1.085 1.031
May 2013 1.087 1.122 1.038 1.036
Jun 2013 1.051 1.040 1.057 1.020
Jul 2013 0.918 0.885 1.002 1.027
Aug 2013 0.933 0.962 1.003 1.003
Sep 2013 0.967 0.919 0.956 1.007
Oct 2013 0.924 0.938 0.987 0.960
Nov 2013 0.927 0.947 0.938 0.949
Dec 2013 0.935 0.901 0.931 0.942

To compute the PMI™:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2)  Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place). Note: As of January 2012, the ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted.

3)  Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.


2013 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes

  Business
Activity
New
Orders

Employment

Prices
Jan 2013 0.939 0.983 0.905 1.017
Feb 2013 1.001 1.013 0.988 1.013
Mar 2013 1.088 1.089 1.032 1.074
Apr 2013 1.073 1.065 1.086 1.093
May 2013 1.044 1.054 1.087 1.067
Jun 2013 1.047 1.012 1.080 0.986
Jul 2013 0.969 0.945 1.052 0.949
Aug 2013 0.941 0.934 0.965 0.973
Sep 2013 0.999 0.981 0.949 0.962
Oct 2013 0.955 0.950 0.925 0.971
Nov 2013 0.964 0.993 0.953 0.949
Dec 2013 0.979 0.981 0.977 0.944

To compute the NMI™:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2)  Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3)  Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.


Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2009-2012

  PMI™ New
Orders
Production Employment Supplier
Deliveries
Jan 2009 34.9 31.8 30.3 28.8 45.5
Feb 2009 35.5 32.8 35.3 25.5 46.0
Mar 2009 36.0 40.3 36.3 28.6 41.9
Apr 2009 39.5 46.5 39.0 33.2 44.4
May 2009 41.7 49.0 42.7 34.8 49.2
Jun 2009 45.8 51.7 55.4 40.7 50.4
Jul 2009 49.9 57.6 59.9 47.1 52.2
Aug 2009 53.5 66.6 62.4 46.1 56.5
Sep 2009 54.4 63.3 61.2 47.8 58.4
Oct 2009 56.0 59.9 63.0 52.4 58.4
Nov 2009 54.4 60.6 62.7 51.7 57.5
Dec 2009 55.3 63.0 62.3 51.6 58.3
 
Jan 2010 56.6 60.4 62.9 54.4 59.5
Feb 2010 55.7 57.4 57.2 55.0 60.0
Mar 2010 59.3 62.6 61.9 55.1 60.6
Apr 2010 58.9 65.1 62.7 57.0 59.0
May 2010 57.8 63.9 62.6 56.8 59.8
Jun 2010 56.1 59.5 62.0 55.9 57.3
Jul 2010 56.4 56.1 58.9 58.8 59.2
Aug 2010 57.8 56.1 61.3 61.2 57.3
Sep 2010 56.5 54.1 61.1 57.2 54.1
Oct 2010 57.3 58.2 62.1 59.8 53.3
Nov 2010 58.2 58.3 59.4 60.0 59.4
Dec 2010 57.3 58.8 61.5 59.0 57.4
 
Jan 2011 59.2 63.2 63.1 59.6 58.1
Feb 2011 59.6 62.7 63.9 61.9 59.2
Mar 2011 59.3 62.7 63.9 61.5 59.5
Apr 2011 59.4 63.8 59.5 60.2 59.2
May 2011 53.5 52.4 53.1 58.6 55.0
Jun 2011 55.8 54.1 56.7 59.0 55.9
Jul 2011 52.3 51.3 54.2 56.6 51.5
Aug 2011 53.2 52.9 53.0 53.4 52.0
Sep 2011 53.2 51.6 54.4 56.1 51.9
Oct 2011 51.5 52.2 53.0 53.2 52.4
Nov 2011 52.3 54.8 55.8 53.2 51.1
Dec 2011 52.9 55.1 58.9 54.6 50.6
 
Jan 2012 53.7 56.5 54.9 55.3 52.2
Feb 2012 51.9 54.9 54.8 52.1 48.4
Mar 2012 53.3 56.8 55.9 55.6 48.0
Apr 2012 54.1 57.6 59.0 56.8 48.7
May 2012 52.5 57.2 54.1 55.9 49.2
Jun 2012 50.2 49.6 52.4 55.7 49.5
Jul 2012 50.5 47.5 53.3 53.2 49.7
Aug 2012 50.7 48.9 48.9 52.6 50.2
Sep 2012 51.6 51.7 51.4 53.7 50.5
Oct 2012 51.7 52.8 53.3 52.3 49.9
Nov 2012 49.9 51.1 53.1 50.1 50.1
Dec 2012 50.2 49.7 52.6 51.9 53.7

*The ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted as of January 2012.

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI™ of 42.2 percent. A PMI™ over 42.2 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI™ below 42.2 percent indicates the overall economy is declining.


Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2009-2012

  NMI™ Business
Activity
New
Orders
Employment Prices
Jan 2009 43.1 44.1 40.7 36.2 41.6
Feb 2009 41.5 40.6 40.4 37.0 47.6
Mar 2009 40.0 42.8 37.2 31.9 38.7
Apr 2009 43.4 45.0 46.8 36.3 40.3
May 2009 44.2 43.1 45.9 37.9 47.5
Jun 2009 46.8 50.1 49.6 41.5 54.5
Jul 2009 47.0 47.0 49.7 41.3 42.7
Aug 2009 49.1 52.1 51.7 43.4 61.6
Sep 2009 50.5 53.8 53.3 44.7 49.1
Oct 2009 50.9 55.0 55.4 42.6 52.7
Nov 2009 49.3 50.9 54.9 42.8 58.1
Dec 2009 49.9 53.0 51.6 44.6 58.5
 
Jan 2010 50.2 51.8 52.7 45.8 59.7
Feb 2010 51.7 53.0 53.1 47.1 58.2
Mar 2010 53.2 57.3 57.9 47.9 59.2
Apr 2010 54.8 59.4 57.7 48.6 64.1
May 2010 55.3 61.0 57.8 49.3 60.6
Jun 2010 54.5 59.7 56.3 48.8 58.2
Jul 2010 54.7 57.5 58.5 50.8 57.8
Aug 2010 52.8 56.1 55.0 49.1 60.0
Sep 2010 53.7 53.3 55.3 51.1 59.1
Oct 2010 55.4 60.1 58.4 52.0 67.1
Nov 2010 56.1 58.6 58.8 54.6 64.5
Dec 2010 57.1 62.9 62.0 52.0 68.7
 
Jan 2011 57.7 61.7 61.9 53.5 70.8
Feb 2011 58.1 63.5 61.7 55.2 71.0
Mar 2011 55.4 58.0 58.9 53.3 69.5
Apr 2011 54.5 56.4 55.7 52.9 71.0
May 2011 54.7 54.7 56.0 54.1 69.1
Jun 2011 53.8 55.1 54.9 53.1 64.0
Jul 2011 53.7 57.0 54.0 53.2 62.8
Aug 2011 54.4 57.1 55.2 52.3 62.0
Sep 2011 52.8 56.6 56.2 48.7 60.8
Oct 2011 53.1 54.3 53.7 52.3 56.8
Nov 2011 52.8 56.0 54.0 51.1 62.2
Dec 2011 52.7 56.3 53.9 49.1 61.4
 
Jan 2012 56.0 58.7 57.8 56.5 62.3
Feb 2012 56.1 60.3 59.6 54.9 67.9
Mar 2012 55.0 58.4 56.6 55.4 64.3
Apr 2012 53.7 55.2 54.2 53.9 55.9
May 2012 54.1 56.0 55.6 51.8 51.4
Jun 2012 52.7 52.4 54.7 52.7 51.0
Jul 2012 52.9 56.9 55.4 49.9 57.2
Aug 2012 54.3 56.3 55.6 53.9 62.3
Sep 2012 55.2 59.6 57.8 52.0 66.1
Oct 2012 54.8 56.8 56.1 54.8 60.8
Nov 2012 54.8 60.9 58.0 51.4 56.9
Dec 2012 55.7 60.8 58.3 55.3 56.1

Beginning in January 2008, ISM began calculating a composite index for the Non-Manufacturing sector (NMI™).


Charts Illustrating Former and Revised Indexes

ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart: 2009-2012

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) Chart: 2009-2012

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Chart: 2009-2012


The ISM Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the first supply institute in the world. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months. Founded in 1915, ISM exists to lead and serve the supply management profession and is a highly influential and respected association in the global marketplace. By executing and extending its mission through education, research, standards of excellence, influence building and information dissemination — including the renowned monthly ISM Report On Business® — ISM continues to extend the global impact of supply management. ISM's membership base includes more than 40,000 supply management professionals in more than 80 countries. Supply management professionals are responsible for trillions of dollars in the purchases of products and services annually. ISM is a member of the International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM).



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