February 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: March 1, 2011


Contact: Rose Marie Goupil
ISM, ROB Media Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws


PMI at 61.4%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of February 2011.


New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower
Inventories Contracting

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the 19th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 21st consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "February's report from the manufacturing sector indicates continuing strong performance as the PMI registered 61.4 percent, a level last achieved in May 2004. New orders and production, driven by strength in exports in particular, continue to drive the composite index (PMI). New orders are growing significantly faster than inventories, and the Customers' Inventories Index indicates supply chain inventories will require continuing replenishment. The Employment Index is above 60 percent for only the third time in the last decade. While there are many positive indicators, there is also concern as industries related to housing continue to struggle and the Prices Index indicates significant inflation of raw material costs across many commodities."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 are reporting growth in February, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Wood Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The four industries reporting contraction in February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "A continued weak dollar is increasing the cost of components purchased overseas. It is going to force us to increase our selling prices to our customers." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "We continue to see significant inflation across nearly every type of chemical raw material we purchase." (Chemical Products)
  • "Our plants are working 24/7 to meet production demands." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Prices continue to rise, while business limps along at last year's pace." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "Overall demand is off 10 percent." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
FEBRUARY 2011


Index
Series
Index
February
Series
Index
January
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 61.4 60.8 +0.6 Growing Faster 19
New Orders 68.0 67.8 +0.2 Growing Faster 20
Production 66.3 63.5 +2.8 Growing Faster 21
Employment 64.5 61.7 +2.8 Growing Faster 17
Supplier Deliveries 59.4 58.6 +0.8 Slowing Faster 21
Inventories 48.8 52.4 -3.6 Contracting From Growing 1
Customers' Inventories 40.0 45.5 -5.5 Too Low Faster 23
Prices 82.0 81.5 +0.5 Increasing Faster 20
Backlog of Orders 59.0 58.0 +1.0 Growing Faster 2
Exports 62.5 62.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 20
Imports 55.0 55.0 0.0 Growing Unchanged 18
             
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 21
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 19

*Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (6); Aluminum Products (2); Brass (3); Brass Products (2); Cocoa; Copper (7); Copper Based Products (4); Corn (6); Diesel (3); Fuel Oils (2); Gasoline; Nickel; Plastics (2); Plastic Products (2); Plastic Resins (4); Polyethylene; Polyethylene Resin (2); Polypropylene (2); Rubber Products; Soybean Oil (4); Stainless Steel (4); Stainless Steel Products (2); Steel (6); Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel Products (3); Steel Surcharges (2); Sugar (2); Sulfuric Acid; and Wheat.

Commodities Down in Price

No commodities are reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

Capacitors; Cocoa Powder; and Electric Components (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.



FEBRUARY 2011 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


PMI

Manufacturing continued its rapid growth in February as the PMI registered 61.4 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to January's reading of 60.8 percent. This is also the highest PMI reading since May 2004 when the index also registered 61.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 21st consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 19th consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January and February (61.1 percent) corresponds to a 6.5 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for February (61.4 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 6.6 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month PMI   Month PMI
Feb 2011 61.4   Aug 2010 55.2
Jan 2011 60.8   Jul 2010 55.1
Dec 2010 58.5   Jun 2010 55.3
Nov 2010 58.2   May 2010 57.8
Oct 2010 56.9   Apr 2010 59.6
Sep 2010 55.3   Mar 2010 60.4
Average for 12 months – 57.9
High – 61.4
Low –55.1

New Orders

ISM's New Orders Index registered 68 percent in February, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage point when compared to the 67.8 percent reported in January. This is the 20th consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 13 industries reporting growth in new orders in February — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The four industries reporting decreases in new orders in February are: Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

New
Orders
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Feb 2011 43 46 11 +32 68.0
Jan 2011 46 36 18 +28 67.8
Dec 2010 31 47 22 +9 62.0
Nov 2010 30 45 25 +5 59.6

Production

ISM's Production Index registered 66.3 percent in February, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the January reading of 63.5 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. This is the 21st consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 12 industries reporting growth in production during the month of February — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Computer & Electronic Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Furniture & Related Products.


Production
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Feb 2011 43 47 10 +33 66.3
Jan 2011 40 44 16 +24 63.5
Dec 2010 30 52 18 +12 63.0
Nov 2010 26 54 20 +6 58.2

Employment

ISM's Employment Index registered 64.5 percent in February, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the 61.7 percent reported in January. This is the 17th consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 reported growth in employment in February in the following order: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The two industries reporting a decrease in employment during February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; and Furniture & Related Products.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Feb 2011 35 56 9 +26 64.5
Jan 2011 24 69 7 +17 61.7
Dec 2010 22 66 12 +10 58.9
Nov 2010 25 65 10 +15 59.0

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in February as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 59.4 percent, which is 0.8 percentage point higher than the 58.6 percent registered in January. This is the 21st consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The seven industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in February — listed in order — are: Machinery; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting faster deliveries in February are: Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Supplier
Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Net

Index
Feb 2011 24 69 7 +17 59.4
Jan 2011 18 77 5 +13 58.6
Dec 2010 15 78 7 +8 56.7
Nov 2010 18 77 5 +13 58.1

Inventories

Manufacturers' inventories declined in February following seven consecutive months of growth. The Inventories Index registered 48.8 percent, 3.6 percentage points less than the 52.4 percent recorded for January. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The four industries reporting higher inventories in February are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting decreases in inventories in February — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Paper Products.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Feb 2011 19 63 18 +1 48.8
Jan 2011 25 54 21 +4 52.4
Dec 2010 24 52 24 0 51.8
Nov 2010 25 58 17 +8 56.1

Customers' Inventories*

The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 40 percent in February, 5.5 percentage points lower than in January when the index registered 45.5 percent. This is the 23rd consecutive month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time.

The two manufacturing industries reporting customers' inventories as being too high during February are: Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 11 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during February — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.

Customers'
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Net

Index
Feb 2011 66 7 66 27 -20 40.0
Jan 2011 63 11 69 20 -9 45.5
Dec 2010 67 8 64 28 -20 40.0
Nov 2010 77 13 65 22 -9 45.5

Prices*

The ISM Prices Index registered 82 percent in February, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 81.5 percent reported in January and the highest reading since July 2008. This is the 20th consecutive month the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While 66 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 2 percent reported paying lower prices, 32 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in January. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

The 13 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of February — listed in order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Furniture & Related Products is the only manufacturing industry reporting paying lower prices on average during February.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Feb 2011 66 32 2 +64 82.0
Jan 2011 64 35 1 +63 81.5
Dec 2010 48 49 3 +45 72.5
Nov 2010 48 43 9 +39 69.5

Backlog of Orders*

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 59 percent in February, which is 1 percentage point higher than the 58 percent reported in January. Of the 82 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 31 percent reported greater backlogs, 13 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 56 percent reported no change from January.

The 10 industries reporting increased order backlogs in February — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The two industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during February are: Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Greater
%
Same
%
Less

Net

Index
Feb 2011 82 31 56 13 +18 59.0
Jan 2011 83 34 48 18 +16 58.0
Dec 2010 84 21 52 27 -6 47.0
Nov 2010 89 18 56 26 -8 46.0

New Export Orders*

ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 62.5 percent in February, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 62 percent reported in January. This is the 20th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.

The 12 industries reporting growth in new export orders in February — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The two manufacturing industries reporting a decrease in export orders during February are: Primary Metals; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Feb 2011 81 31 63 6 +25 62.5
Jan 2011 81 30 64 6 +24 62.0
Dec 2010 81 21 67 12 +9 54.5
Nov 2010 81 23 68 9 +14 57.0

Imports*

Imports of materials by manufacturers continued to expand in February as the Imports Index registered 55 percent, the same as reported in January. This is the 18th consecutive month of growth in imports.

The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of February — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The three industries reporting a decrease in imports during February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.


Imports
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Feb 2011 77 19 72 9 +10 55.0
Jan 2011 82 20 70 10 +10 55.0
Dec 2010 82 13 75 12 +1 50.5
Nov 2010 83 18 70 12 +6 53.0

* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.


Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased 3 days to 108 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased 1 day to 56 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 4 days to 23 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Feb 2011 32 7 8 18 24 11 108
Jan 2011 28 9 14 13 27 9 105
Dec 2010 28 9 15 14 24 10 105
Nov 2010 33 7 13 15 22 10 101
 

Production
Materials
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Feb 2011 15 38 26 13 7 1 56
Jan 2011 13 38 30 14 2 3 57
Dec 2010 16 39 26 13 5 1 52
Nov 2010 17 38 27 13 3 2 53
 

MRO
Supplies
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Feb 2011 51 36 10 2 1 0 23
Jan 2011 50 36 9 3 1 1 27
Dec 2010 44 41 9 5 0 1 28
Nov 2010 52 37 8 2 1 0 22

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the March 2011 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Friday, April 1, 2011.



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