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November 2007 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: December 3, 2007


Contact: Andrea Waas, APR
ISM, Vice President
Business & Public Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3009
E-mail: awaas@ism.ws


PMI at 50.8%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2007.


New Orders, Production Growing
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November for the 10th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 73rd consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Manufacturing continued to grow during November, a trend that is now in its 10th month. The rate of growth in the sector was down slightly compared to October. While other segments of the economy are struggling, manufacturing continues to grow due to continuing strength in new orders, and a recovery in production from last month. Prices, driven higher by energy prices, are once again the major concern."

TOP PERFORMING INDUSTRIES

The seven industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Continued concerns regarding high oil prices, weak dollar and weak housing sector." (Chemical Products)
  • "Erratic market causing more difficulty in forecasting customer demand." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Heavy truck market has not started recovering yet." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Business is off by almost 50 percent over last year in the building products industry." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "More inquiries from international customers than domestic." (Machinery)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
NOVEMBER 2007


Index
Series
Index
November
Series
Index
October
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 50.8 50.9 -0.1 Growing Slower 10
New Orders 52.6 52.5 +0.1 Growing Faster 12
Production 51.9 49.6 +2.3 Growing From Contracting 1
Employment 47.8 52.0 -4.2 Contracting From Growing 1
Supplier Deliveries 51.7 50.6 +1.1 Slowing Faster 3
Inventories 46.9 47.2 -0.3 Contracting Faster 16
Customers' Inventories 49.0 54.0 -5.0 Too Low From Too High 1
Prices 67.5 63.0 +4.5 Increasing Faster 11
Backlog of Orders 41.5 46.0 -4.5 Contracting Faster 2
Exports 58.5 57.0 +1.5 Growing Faster 60
Imports 47.5 47.5 0 Contracting Same 2
             
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 73
Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 10

*Number of months moving in current direction


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Caustic Soda (2); Corrugated Containers (3); Gasoline; LDPE Resins; Methanol (2); Natural Gas; Oil — #2 & #6; Packaging; Plastic Products; Polypropylene Resin; Resins; Soybean Oil; and Sulfuric Acid.

Commodities Down in Price

No commodities are reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.



NOVEMBER 2007 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


PMI

Manufacturing grew at a slightly slower rate in November as the PMI registered 50.8 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point when compared to October's reading of 50.9 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates that both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector are growing. "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI average for January through November (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 3.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) annually. In addition, if the PMI for November (50.8 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.8 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month PMI   Month PMI
Nov 2007 50.8   May 2007 55.0
Oct 2007 50.9   Apr 2007 54.7
Sep 2007 52.0   Mar 2007 50.9
Aug 2007 52.9   Feb 2007 52.3
Jul 2007 53.8   Jan 2007 49.3
Jun 2007 56.0   Dec 2006 51.4
Average for 12 months – 52.5
High – 56.0
Low – 49.3

New Orders

ISM's New Orders Index registered 52.6 percent in November. The index is 0.1 percentage point higher than the 52.5 percent reported in October. A New Orders Index above 49.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Seven industries reported increases during November: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

New
Orders
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Nov 2007 27 46 27 0 52.6
Oct 2007 18 64 18 0 52.5
Sep 2007 29 51 20 +9 53.4
Aug 2007 27 52 21 +6 55.3

Production

ISM's Production Index rebounded to 51.9 percent in November, an increase of 2.3 percentage points, following a slight downturn in October when the index registered 49.6 percent. An index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.

Of the industries reporting in November, seven registered growth: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; and Machinery.


Production
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Nov 2007 23 55 22 +1 51.9
Oct 2007 18 60 22 -4 49.6
Sep 2007 31 53 16 +15 54.6
Aug 2007 26 56 18 +8 56.1

Employment

ISM's Employment Index registered 47.8 percent in November, which is a decrease of 4.2 percentage points when compared to October's reading of 52 percent. An Employment Index above 49.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

The eight industries reporting growth in employment during November are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Nov 2007 14 67 19 -5 47.8
Oct 2007 17 66 17 0 52.0
Sep 2007 14 72 14 0 51.7
Aug 2007 10 79 11 -1 51.3

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations continued to slow in November. The Supplier Deliveries Index increased 1.1 percentage points to 51.7 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The five industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in November are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.

Supplier
Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Net

Index
Nov 2007 5 92 3 +2 51.7
Oct 2007 7 87 6 +1 50.6
Sep 2007 8 88 4 +4 51.9
Aug 2007 6 90 4 +2 50.0

Inventories

Manufacturers' inventories contracted again in November as the Inventories Index registered 46.9 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than October's reading of 47.2 percent. This is the 16th consecutive month of inventory liquidation. An Inventories Index greater than 42.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The two industries reporting higher inventories in November are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Nov 2007 18 55 27 -9 46.9
Oct 2007 17 57 26 -9 47.2
Sep 2007 13 57 30 -17 41.6
Aug 2007 13 67 20 -7 45.4

Customers' Inventories*

The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 49 percent in November, a decrease of 5 percentage points when compared to October. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time.

Five industries reported higher customers' inventories during November: Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Customers'
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Net

Index
Nov 2007 79 13 72 15 -2 49.0
Oct 2007 73 20 68 12 +8 54.0
Sep 2007 76 16 68 16 0 50.0
Aug 2007 70 13 72 15 -2 49.0

Prices*

In November, the ISM Prices Index registered 67.5 percent, indicating manufacturers are paying higher prices on average when compared to October. While 42 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 7 percent reported paying lower prices, 51 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as the preceding month. A Prices Index above 47.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

In November, 15 industries reported paying higher prices: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Nov 2007 42 51 7 +35 67.5
Oct 2007 33 60 7 +26 63.0
Sep 2007 30 58 12 +18 59.0
Aug 2007 33 60 7 +26 63.0

Backlog of Orders*

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.5 percent in November, 4.5 percentage points lower than the 46 percent reported in October. This marks the second month that the index has declined following six consecutive months of growth. Of the 88 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 13 percent reported greater backlogs, 30 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 57 percent reported no change from October.

The three industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in November are: Paper Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Greater
%
Same
%
Less

Net

Index
Nov 2007 88 13 57 30 -17 41.5
Oct 2007 83 16 60 24 -8 46.0
Sep 2007 84 24 54 22 +2 51.0
Aug 2007 84 19 63 18 +1 50.5

New Export Orders*

ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 58.5 percent in November, an increase of 1.5 percentage points when compared to October's index of 57 percent. This is the 60th consecutive month of growth in export orders.

The nine industries reporting growth in new export orders in November are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products.

New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Nov 2007 77 19 79 2 +17 58.5
Oct 2007 77 19 76 5 +14 57.0
Sep 2007 76 16 77 7 +9 54.5
Aug 2007 79 20 74 6 +14 57.0

Imports*

Imports of materials by manufacturers failed to grow again during November as the Imports Index registered 47.5 percent, the same rate of contraction as reported in October. This is the second month of contraction in the Index following 69 consecutive months of growth.

The three industries reporting growth in import activity for November are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Chemical Products.


Imports
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Nov 2007 83 10 75 15 -5 47.5
Oct 2007 77 8 79 13 -5 47.5
Sep 2007 82 16 74 10 +6 53.0
Aug 2007 82 16 73 11 +5 52.5

* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

Average commitment leadtime for Capital Expenditures decreased 3 days to 120 days. Average leadtime for Production Materials is unchanged at 48 days. Average leadtime for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 1 day to 21 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Nov 2007 21 9 13 19 25 13 120
Oct 2007 21 8 12 23 21 15 123
Sep 2007 20 9 10 24 22 15 125
Aug 2007 19 10 16 23 22 10 110
 

Production
Materials
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Nov 2007 20 39 28 8 4 1 48
Oct 2007 21 38 26 10 4 1 48
Sep 2007 21 40 25 9 4 1 47
Aug 2007 20 38 29 8 4 1 48
 

MRO
Supplies
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Nov 2007 56 31 10 3 0 0 21
Oct 2007 54 33 9 4 0 0 22
Sep 2007 53 32 8 6 0 1 26
Aug 2007 45 41 11 3 0 0 24

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders — 30%; Production — 25%; Employment — 20%; Supplier Deliveries — 15%; and Inventories — 10%.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 41.9 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 41.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 41.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's leadtime, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the December 2007 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, January 2, 2008.


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